this post was submitted on 14 Nov 2024
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haven't seen this re-done with final numbers
In Michigan Harris lost by 80K votes (netting 70K fewer votes than Biden in 2020), anti-genocide candidates got 50K (37K more than 2020)
In Wisconsin Harris lost by 29K votes (netting 30K more votes than Biden in 2020), anti-genocide candidates got 17K (16K more than in 2020)
In Pennsylvania Harris lost by 130K votes (netting 66K fewer than Biden in 2020), anti-genocide candidates got 34K (Greens were not on the ballot in 2020)
In North Carolina Harris lost by 190K votes (netting 4K more than Biden in 2020), anti-genocide candidates got 35K votes (23K more than 2020)
I'm not a statician by any means but my reading of the numbers is that Michigan seems to be the only of these states that you could argue that abstentions from 2020 plus the growth of anti-genocide parties could have actually cost Harris the state.
Edit: if every single voter in these states that the Dems lost between 2020 and 2024 voted for Harris, and every vote for anti-genocide candidates was a whole seperate vote for Harris (which is an absurd assumption), then the only one of these states that would flip to her would be Michigan. If Palestine was what drove all of these votes away from Harris (also an absurd assumption) then we can fairly conclusively say that the Democrats' position on Palestine did not cost them WI, PA, and NC.
Your argument hinges on people giving a fuck about the green party and PSL. I’m sorry, but the average person who has to commit to do elecotralism and stand in line for over 4 hours on a workday, they’re not voting for someone who has no chance of winning
I wasn't arguing a position, just pointing out that Michigan is really the only one of those states from the graphic that the numbers might suggest the possibility of Gaza playing a role in changing the outcome of the state election. I personally don't think it changed the outcome anywhere.