this post was submitted on 16 Dec 2024
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Bulletins and News Discussion from December 16th to December 22nd, 2024 - Assad's Apology
(hexbear.net)
Image is of Assad's presidential palace in 2013. There's more images of it in this article, though the words in it aren't worth reading.
Here is Assad's version of events. I like to imagine he's making one of those Youtuber apology videos where they sigh at the start and talk in a chastised yet somewhat defensive tone of voice.
As terrorism spread across Syria and ultimately reached Damascus on the evening of Saturday 7th December 2024, questions arose about the president's fate and whereabouts. This occurred amidst a flood of misinformation and narratives far removed from the truth, aimed at recasting international terrorism as a liberation revolution for Syria.
At such a critical juncture in the nation’s history, where truth must take precedence, it is essential to address these distortions. Unfortunately, the prevailing circumstances at the time, including a total communication blackout for security reasons, delayed the release of this statement. This does not replace a detailed account of the events that unfolded, which will be provided when the opportunity allows.
First, my departure from Syria was neither planned nor did it occur during the final hours of the battles, as some have claimed. On the contrary, I remained in Damascus, carrying out my duties until the early hours of Sunday 8th December 2024. As terrorist forces infiltrated Damascus, I moved to Latakia in co-ordination with our Russian allies to oversee combat operations. Upon arrival at the Hmeimim airbase that morning, it became clear that our forces had completely withdrawn from all battle lines and that the last army positions had fallen. As the field situation in the area continued to deteriorate, the Russian military base itself came under intensified attack by drone strikes.
With no viable means of leaving the base, Moscow requested that the base’s command arrange an immediate evacuation to Russia on the evening of Sunday 8th December. This took place a day after the fall of Damascus following the collapse of the final military positions and the resulting paralysis of all remaining state institutions.
At no point during these events did I consider stepping down or seeking refuge, nor was such a proposal made by any individual or party. The only course of action was to continue fighting against the terrorist onslaught.
I reaffirm that the person who, from the very first day of the war, refused to barter the salvation of his nation for personal gain, or to compromise his people in exchange for numerous offers and enticements is the same person who stood alongside the officers and soldiers of the army on the front lines, just metres from terrorists in the most dangerous and intense battlefields. He is the same person who, during the darkest years of the war, did not leave but remained with his family alongside his people, confronting terrorism under bombardment and the recurring threats of terrorist incursions into the capital over 14 years of war. Furthermore, the person who has never abandoned the resistance in Palestine and Lebanon, nor betrayed his allies who stood by him, cannot possibly be the same person who would forsake his own people or betray the army and nation to which he belongs.
I have never sought positions for personal gain but have always considered myself as a custodian of a national project, supported by the faith of the Syrian people, who believed in its vision. I have carried an unwavering conviction in their will and ability to protect the state, defend its institutions, and uphold their choices to the very last moment.
When the state falls into the hands of terrorism and the ability to make a meaningful contribution is lost, any position becomes void of purpose, rendering its occupation meaningless. This does not, in any way, diminish my profound sense of belonging to Syria and her people – a bond that remains unshaken by any position or circumstance. It is a belonging filled with hope that Syria will once again be free and independent.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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US-Backed Kurdish Forces Report Ceasefire Failure in Northern Syria
Yes, the situation is not positive. It looks as if the SNA, with Turkish close air support, will attempt to encircle the SDF/YPG positions at Kobani. There are also US forces located in Kobani on the side of the SDF/YPG.
US getting rid of their leftist tools as soon as the antiimperialist government is destroyed?
Insert Kissinger quote about being America's friend here.
these comprador delights have comprador ends
They are hardly leftists
This was always how SDF and the Kurdish project ended. Unless they worked with Assad to reintegrate and restore the splintered country they were always going to get betrayed and thrown to the Turkish wolves.
There’s a pathway here to a Turkish-Russian alliance backing jihadis vs the Israelis & Kurds & US.
Syria is such a fucking mess but, aside from the fact Russia spent most of a decade bombing the Jihadis, that’s the alignment that starts to make sense.
no way in hell is the US getting into a conflict with Turkey, this entire collapse is Israel-US led and designed. The jihadis are Israeli and American backed. You're getting the situation confused.
The US won’t shoot at Turkey but they’ll give guns to the Kurds. They already have been.
And the Jihadis were backed by Israel and were being bombed by Russia but Uno Reverso.
I think all Russia cares about in this is Tartarus. They dgaf who runs Syria so long as they get that naval base. And the Jihadis dgaf who supplies them so long as they get their caliphate. It’s a swipe right.
The US is already overextended arming Israel and Ukraine, they don’t have extra weaponry to give out.
The entire purpose of their efforts in Syria was to remove Assad to promote Israeli interests. They have accomplished this. Why would they further mire themselves in a proxy conflict with their own ally while they have ongoing wars with enemies to win?
When has the US ever seen a proxy conflict it didn’t want to engage in?
Yes the US is overstretched but the calculus isn’t affected since this conflict will stretch Russia too and kept Erdogan tied down, and also force a true break in Russia-Israeli relations which are still fairly good considering Israel is allied with the US.
Plus it’s the oil. That’s why the Middle East matters. The Kurdish zone and the bit near Jordan are where the oil is. They won’t let Turkey just take that.
Further, destabilization is an objective unto itself. If the region is destabilized they can divide and conquer, assert themselves as an “intermediary” to protect their interests, and prevent a regional power bloc from forming that is contrary to their interests.
The endgame wasn’t Assad. They didn’t care about Assad except insofar as he was in the way. The USA being anti- or pro- Assad was only ever a question of context.
Why would Russia be stretched? Their interest in Syria has withered to basically nothing. They weren’t baited into a proxy war when their ally was crumbling, they won’t be baited for some rando jihadists they don’t even like.
Losing bases is the opposite of being stretched, they are losing territory effectively. They are being grouped and consolidated without losses. Many will be returning back to Russia or going to the Ukraine front. This helps Russia in its war with Ukraine and helps Russia in the short term - no longer being weighed down by propping up Assad, but it will have long term geopolitical ramifications as Greater Israel is constructed and the west further cements its domination of the region.
Syria produces a negligible amount of oil, that's not what the syrian civil war was about in the slightest. The issue with the Kurds stealing the oil for themselves was that it deprived the syrian government of revenue and resources to fuel their war effort. It's not enough that Americans would stick their neck out and lose their most powerful ally in the region.
Russia is stretched in this context because of the naval base and how isolated it suddenly is.
Russia is a hair away from losing a Mediterranean Sea base which would be difficult to supply without cutting a deal with whoever controls Syria.
So? Who cares?
That base is magnitudes less important than being pulled into a conflict and losing their war with Ukraine. They won’t take the bait
Russia spent 14 years providing Assad with a backbone which cost a pretty penny. Russia obviously cares about this naval base.
Fucking 200 years of conflict have been fought over warm water ports for Russia in the Black Sea and Mediterranean what the fuck do you mean “no big deal”?
Empires have been lost over the Suez Canal, this is a very strategic position for Russia. British went to war over the damn Falkland’s your damn right Russia will make a deal with these jihadis if that’s what it takes.
Back to warm water ports crap
They have Crimea
They supported Assad because they don’t want millions of refugees and terrorist country next to them, and they have decades long military alliances.
The warm water ports stuff is so silly, literally anglo projection from the 1800s
Not only do they have Crimea and Murmansk, they also have a huge coastline south east of Crimea
The Slavic brainpan yearns for the warm water port
They didn’t do it because of their moral goodness and belief in the magic of friendship.
It was about the naval base the entire time & the history of Syria doesn’t exactly read “no refugee crisis” so your belief structure here is wild.
What did Assad have to offer Russia? One thing only, and it was a big thing worth 14 years of war for.
“Warm water port crap” actually ports matter they really do. They really really do. Guam isn’t a holiday destination for the US and the Falklands aren’t valued for their sheep. The importance of Okinawa isn’t sushi nor tuna.
No they did so because of diplomatic necessity and geopolitical realpolitik, allowing the Americans to gain total control of the Middle East and losing an ally is not something Russia wanted to do, but their priorities have had to shift elsewhere as NATO pressed the Ukrainian front harder. It has little to do with some port, and they certainly aren’t going to go to war with the US over it
The US requires ports all over the globe because they are a global empire that needs to force project and encircle and contain other parties. Russia does not have the ability or desire to do this and doesn’t need ports everywhere for force projection in the same way. They don't have the navy capacity to openly patrol international waters and protect their own borders and fight against NATO forces in Ukraine, what good is more ports for them?
As for spreading themselves thin, Russian equipment is actually accumulating at these ports as it is withdrawn from the rest of the country and consolidated. Russia may or may not be able to negotiate continued military use of these ports, but either way Russia has been defeated strategically in Syria and will be withdrawing and consolidating. They won't be entangling themselves with the Turkish ISIS brigade to get into a war with Israel and the US and the Kurds (who they are also allied to btw). It makes no sense.
Do you believe there would have been more or less refugees if ISIS had taken Damascus during the height of the civil war before Russia intervened initially? What we saw was actually the better case scenario, the government stabilizing and ceasefires drawn. All of the Daesh scum was concentrated in Turkish protected Idlib or in Turkey itself. Keep in mind, all of the enemies of the Assad regime would never flee to Russia or the surrounding areas (instead preferring to flee to Turkey and Europe). However, enemies of ISIS during the total collapse and pillaging would be going to Russia in much greater numbers.
Actually, there is one group that would go back to Russia with a new powerful base of operations behind them in Syria. Jihadi salafist chechens. That's why Russia was shutting this down before it spread.
Expect to see a lot more chechen and uighur separatist activity now that the American-backed terrorists are in control.
Well I disagree with you about the ports but you didn’t introduce anything new re their importance so I’ll leave that to one side for a moment.
A strategy of area denial also argues in favor of Russia seeking to balance of power against US and Israeli factions which leaves a deal with Jihadis and Turkey against the Kurds and Israel.
There’s no chance of a Ba’athist come back so either Russia cedes the zone or picks a side.
So along with the immensely strategic port, that makes two strong reasons why Russia will make a deal with the jihadis and align with Turkey.
What happens if NATO members Turkey and US begin air strikes on each other's forces? Do they just call it a mulligan? If Turkey is removed from NATO because of this, that would be a silver lining (I don't think this will happen)
The US will absolutely leave SDF hanging (again)
Matthew Miller's eyes would twitch as he smiles and talks about not knowing the situation on the ground and how accidents happen.
However that scenario is besides the point. The Americans positioned troops there to be part of the negotiations. And if they truly don't want Turkey to do this offensive then all they have to do is the same as last time: call Erdogan on the phone. If the offensive happens at all, it's because the US was at least ambivalent towards it (which may or may not happen because of the transitional period towards Trump's admin).
The US will not carry out airstrikes against Turkish backed forces. They'll either get Turkey to stop, or abandon the SDF/YPG positions there.
I mean, did Greece and Turkey not fight one another in the 70s invasion of Cyprus? NATO just kinda steps back. the US would absolutely leave the SDF to get shelled than risk a fracture in NATO. Turkey covers Russias southern flank and the naval access to the black sea, that's worth a lot more to them than the Kurds
US won’t do that, Turkey is a far more important ally than the kurds