this post was submitted on 30 Dec 2024
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[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 41 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Nice summary on the principal directions of Russia’s economy in 2024:

If we talk about the economic forecast, then the coming 2025 will repeat (at least the first months) the outgoing year. More precisely, the trends laid down in 2022-2024. What and how will happen can be explained through the prism of the events of the last 12 months.

The outgoing year was remembered for the virtual confrontation between the Central Bank and the Government on the issue of what to do with the economy. Virtual, because it is not clear whether this confrontation actually took place. We heard hints (sometimes bold ones), echoes of disputes, contradictions, clashes, from which we can put together a version of events close to reality.

If there was a clash, it was of a non-ideological nature (the Central Bank and the Cabinet of Ministers are ideological twins). The contradictions of the parties were based on different goal-setting. While the Government tried to ensure at least some economic growth throughout 2024, the Central Bank fought inflation (overheated, and therefore “wrong” economic growth). Obviously, these are mutually exclusive goals.

The top management of the Central Bank regularly criticized the Government for preferential programs and budget incentives in the form of injecting trillions of rubles into the real sector. The Government, through the mouths of the most influential representatives of the real sector, loudly complained about the Central Bank's policy, due to which loans became unavailable, and production is sliding into the loss-making zone. The coming 2025 is unlikely to be different in content, since the goals of the parties remain the same for next year. According to direct and indirect data, the Government is ready to resume preferential programs and inject huge amounts of money (for example, about 4 trillion will go into the system by January). Although the Central Bank took a pause with the key rate in December, it is ready to raise it next year.

However, this is the visible part of what is happening - a facade. There is also a (fundamental) reality that is not very visible in the media. It is such that the Russian state still lives in a strong ideological contradiction with itself. When on the one hand (political) we observe declarative anti-Westernism, and on the other hand (economic) the liberal-Western ideology rules completely. In practical terms, this is expressed in the fact that the costs of developing the real (non-export-oriented) sector go along the line of irreparable losses, and the most profitable sector of the Russian economy during the war is the financial sector, which is not subject to additional taxes, and not the military-industrial complex and raw materials combined. But this is just by the way.

Всех с Новым годом!

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 28 points 1 week ago (1 children)

It is such that the Russian state still lives in a strong ideological contradiction with itself. When on the one hand (political) we observe declarative anti-Westernism, and on the other hand (economic) the liberal-Western ideology rules completely

That may be the greatest recipe for disaster in the 21st century, so far

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 28 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

I agree.

Like I commented the other day (I think it was to you?), I don’t see radical change on the horizon. Russia is too scared to accidentally take itself back to the neoliberal hell of 1990s, so it is still preferable to suffer moderately under Putin. China is too comfortable for a radical transformation, not to mention the entire Xi’s (and many others’) family history with the Cultural Revolution, so they’ll want to play it slow and steady.

I still think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked perhaps one of the most radical points in history over the past two decades. I will admit I had perhaps way too much optimism back then. Unfortunately, the opportunities opened up by it weren’t seized upon and things are slowly reverting to status quo.

There will be permanent changes on the geopolitical front, for sure, but I don’t see a collective desire to get out of the Washington consensus neoliberalism/dollar hegemony. At least until the next crisis of capitalism.

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 15 points 1 week ago (3 children)

The one bright side is Trump may give both of them 4 years of breathing room thru his fumbling of US foreign policy, so they may have 4 more years to have an epiphany and get their shit together

[–] Lemmygradwontallowme@hexbear.net 6 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Rlly, Cyborg Marx?

At point or another, someone else would prolly take care of it. Same with Biden, who's merely there to sign off bahala na

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/11/outgoing-syria-envoy-admits-hiding-us-troop-numbers-praises-trumps-mideast-record/170012/

Trump has said the US shouldn’t be involved in Syria, will he recall the remaining few thousand US troops from Syria?

Trump “tried” to get the U.S. out of Syria the first time around, and the State Department just lied to him:

“We were always playing shell games to not make clear to our leadership how many troops we had there,” Jeffrey said in an interview. The actual number of troops in northeast Syria is “a lot more than” the roughly two hundred troops Trump initially agreed to leave there in 2019.

“What Syria withdrawal? There was never a Syria withdrawal,” Jeffrey said. “When the situation in northeast Syria had been fairly stable after we defeated ISIS, [Trump] was inclined to pull out. In each case, we then decided to come up with five better arguments for why we needed to stay. And we succeeded both times. That’s the story.”

This has always been the weakness of the “maybe Trump will damage the empire because he doesn’t care and doesn’t know anything” argument. Turns out you can only do so much damage that way before the professionals turn off your controller and let you think you’re still playing.

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 1 points 1 week ago

I wasn't really thinking about the middle east, frankly whether it's Trump or a democrat in office I think the region is lost

I was thinking more about China, Russia and the rest of BRICS, setting aside the omnipotence of the deep state, Trump's self-destructive hostility toward China weakens the credibility and bargaining power of liberals in China and forces the Chinese state into a more obvious anti-western stance (breathing room probably wasn't the best term I could've used to describe that)

With Russia even if Trump is side-lined by the deep state, his mere presence undermines the credibility of European leaders and his big mouth will definitely play in Russia's favor

[–] iridaniotter@hexbear.net 6 points 1 week ago

Solar Xi please front

[–] darkmode@hexbear.net 5 points 1 week ago

Trump does not “fumble US foreign policy” he signs off on exactly what the contiguous state dept wants. He was already president and beat obama’s drone numbers, assassinated foreign leaders, and further increased military budget.

I’m not sure exactly which set backs you’re referring to under his presidency tho. i could be missing your point but i heartily agree with @Lemmygradwontallowme@hexbear.net

[–] BynarsAreOk@hexbear.net 2 points 1 week ago

I still think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked perhaps one of the most radical points in history over the past two decades. I will admit I had perhaps way too much optimism back then. Unfortunately, the opportunities opened up by it weren’t seized upon and things are slowly reverting to status quo.

What I've been thinking since Syria is there are bigger issues here with how the "alternative media" or whatever you call it handled the '22-25 period so far that specially now after Syria, I think this NC post is a good example(“Russia Dodged a Bullet by Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With the Now-Defeated Resistance Axis”) only slightly gets to some of it, not even the author or the article(its pretty whatever I don't even agree with it) but the commenters are fascinating to me, and some of it is something I've come to agree with some time.

These people we turned to as "geopolitical experts" have questionable biases and track records, looking at the comments and some of the people mentioned and how they handled Syria is very telling.

I say this because some people are eager to say "oh but China isn't doing anything new they've been opening up since Deng duh" as if they don't understand this is embarrassing and ultimately a condemnation of China.

We were correct imo as I said often now for a brief moment it realy did look as if we were actualy going towards the start of what could be a long chain of events/conflicts between the west and the rotw. It realy did look as if China wasn't going to take it anymore(following HK, Xinjiang, COVID etc) and we could see Russia having to choose between a Chinese led opposition to western interests and the usual post soviet neoliberal history. Of course even back then it was only though the hopes of Russia having an impossible choice between their worst enemy and their "biggest" ally that through this relationship(Putin literaly went to China and traveled together with Xi and all that shit) that they/he would learn something about what needed to be done.

China is too comfortable for a radical transformation, not to mention the entire Xi’s (and many others’) family history with the Cultural Revolution, so they’ll want to play it slow and steady.

I've maintained China has been the critical actor, with the biggest influence and biggest potential and the turn around is inexplicable except by the obvious realization we were wrong and China wasn't in fact looking to be oppositional at all.

3 years later it is even clearer China wants the consensus, as I mentioned many times they're not even afraid, let alone embarrassed lol to shit on the entire global south left/socialists conception or hopes of international socialism by working as closely with the US as they can. Be it state media or Xi himself, they'll say US bad one day and then beg Wall St for money and shake hands with Genocider in Chief the very next day.

We weren't wrong to have hope, we were wrong for not understanding Xi's fundamental change of the CPC had absolutely nothing to do geopolitics. As far as China is concerned the year may as well be 2002. Not understanding or appreciating this enough is at least what I consider my own mistake, not realizing the Dengism hole goes quite a bit deeper and nastier. I leave this quote

Economic globalisation resulted from growing social productivity, and is a natural outcome of scientific and technological progress, not something created by any individuals or any countries. Economic globalisation has powered global growth and facilitated movement of goods and capital, advances in science, technology and civilisation, and interactions among peoples… Whether you like it or not, the global economy is the big ocean that you cannot escape from. Any attempt to cut off the flow of capital, technologies, products, industries and people between economies, and channel the waters in the ocean back into isolated lakes and creeks is simply not possible (Xi 2017)

Yes praise globalization says the Great Communist Leader, fucking kill me 8 years ago already lol. There is "taking it slow" as you put it and then there is whatever this brainworm is. I have serious doubts dengism has any meaningful intentions of moving beyond the current status quo. China wants a seat on the table and only to keep the inadequacies of our global south suffering away from their borders(and preferrably out of sight by begging the US to be "nice" to everyone). I could be wrong, I want to be wrong, I'd like to see them actualy do anything before believing it though.