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I wouldn't hold my breath on Ukraine. Putin declined to do peace negotiations without new concessions and now Trump is threatening to escalate tariffs and sanctions. So basically more of the same.
I guess we'll see, but in order to do a deal, Trump will have to get Ukraine to make concessions. Obviously he can force them to do it, but that will make him look like he lost something. I think he'd rather stay in a forever war than look like he negotiated a losing deal.
Does the cutting of aid today make the forever war more or less likely, in your opinion?
Probably no difference. Military aid funding was already appropriated and apparently still flowing. Plus they have some of the money and weaponry we've previously provided, which should get them through the 90 days. Some reconstruction aid will probably be stopped, but it's not clear.
The order stopping foreign aid was another of Trump's poorly written and poorly considered EO's. The Pentagon has plenty of time to get in Trump's ear about it before it would affect the war.