this post was submitted on 17 Apr 2025
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chapotraphouse
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Presumably it is because liberals are in denial about what is happening. (you asked for liberals, I'm only about 50% liberal, hope that take is good enough.)
Even people at protests are talking about “getting everything back in 2026” like there’s going to be elections by then. It would be cute if it wasn’t so sad.
I don't know to what extent the midterm elections can upset things in the united states. What probability would you assign to "there won't be meaningful midterms in 2026"?
85%-90% because red states aren’t going to flip anything, and I don’t think there are enough flippable seats to make a difference. I would be surprised, and even if they do get a razor thin majority, what will they do under a Trump presidency? They will claim, same as they do now, that there’s nothing they can do.
What did you mean by this:
Fascism has good reason to shut down free and fair elections. My prediction is based on if elections do occur.
What I meant to ask was, what is the probability you would assign to free and fair elections not happening. (Or would you consider the new ID requirements already so stringent that the elections can no longer be said to be fair?)
That’s a more difficult one as I don’t know what’s happening at all the state levels. I suspect there was already election tampering in the last election, and I believe that will be even easier now. There is also the factor of, as you said, more stringent laws regarding voting that will push out some people (and many more POCs will be disenfranchised than ever before), but I don’t know how many people that will affect. Then there’s the looming possibility that Trump will effectively stop elections by invoking martial law or something similar, because of things like mass demonstrations (I am feeling a bit more hopeful that this will happen, but not betting on it).
Overall I’m not confident enough that I understand all the facts to give a real percentage chance, and I think it also depends on how much the administration believes an election can harm them. What do you think?
I would imagine that free elections will be the last straw for most americans. I don't think Trump would risk everything on the midterms. 5% chance the midterms are rigged.