this post was submitted on 27 Apr 2025
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[–] Oderus@lemmy.world 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The problem with the Conservative vote is it's very concentrated in provinces with less seats. Winning AB/SK/MB won't matter if you lose enough seats in BC/ON/PQ, mostly ON.

[–] wise_pancake@lemmy.ca 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I think they might pick up seats in areas like Ontario and Manitoba, even areas like Hamilton.

That’s my concern anyway.

[–] Oderus@lemmy.world 2 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

They did much better in ON that many thought, but they lost and Pierre lost his seat. So that's great news.

[–] wise_pancake@lemmy.ca 2 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

I’m personally pretty happy with the outcome overall

But yeah exactly what I was thinking would happen did.

Poll aggregators undercounted less traditional voters but did count things like older conservatives moving liberal.

I don’t think this is a “shy conservative” phenomenon, which CBC and polling companies are talking about that a lot today. it’s really a failure in models to adapt to non baseline conditions, and this was sort of a black swan election.

That became clear to me when advanced turnout was so high.

I think the future for models should be to incorporate more “causal” style models, and for pollsters to break their traditional voter demographics up more. Right now it’s not granular enough.

[–] Oderus@lemmy.world 1 points 13 hours ago

They talked about having higher numbers skewing the models so yeah, it'll be something that'll adjust over time. I'm quite happy with how everything turned out.