this post was submitted on 27 Apr 2025
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EDIT: If the elections.ca website is down for you, see here

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[–] Zagorath@aussie.zone 6 points 13 hours ago (3 children)

LPC+NDP could be 171 and be ok on current numbers, with the 1 GRN projected reaching a majority without needing BQ. Still...they're 1 short of that.

[–] OrteilGenou@lemmy.world 4 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

You assume Carney would prefer working with the NDP over the BQ? I wouldn't be surprised if he preferred the BQ if only to strike a congenial tone and try to garner more support there so next time his majority is not in doubt

[–] Zagorath@aussie.zone 0 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

I'm not Canadian. Just an amateur psephologist who loves talking the theory of politics. I don't have my own sense of which party they'd rather work with.

I based that assumption on what other comments seemed to be making. Which was, yes, that Liberals would choose NDP over BQ.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 6 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

We've still got those advance polls keeping things in flux, though. A Liberal majority hasn't even been ruled out.

[–] Zagorath@aussie.zone 2 points 12 hours ago (2 children)

Have there been estimates of how many advance polls there have been, as a percentage of estimated overall turnout?

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 2 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

I'm going to bed pretty quick, but CBC just said that it's about a 2,000 voter jump for the left when that advanced poll comes in, based on the ridings that are done. So, about 1.6% in a 125,000 person riding, or actually more because voting isn't mandatory.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 2 points 11 hours ago

As a percentage of turnout, not off the top of my head. It was 7.2 million advance voters in a nation of 41.7 million, though. So, a lot.

[–] FunderPants@lemmy.ca 3 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago) (1 children)

1 short may as well be 2 short, because the house will elect a liberal speaker and reduce the vote number one more. But, whatever will happen is set in stone, waiting to be counted. I don't know why I engage with this as if its a story unfolding, like I can influence it by watching.

[–] Zagorath@aussie.zone 8 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago) (1 children)

because the house will elect a liberal speaker and reduce the vote number one more

Oh, is that not built-in to the 172 requirement? In Australia we always talk about a requirement of 76 seats to win an election, because 75 after the speaker is selected is able to have control of Parliament. I assumed the CBC and others were doing the same here.

edit: actually, just ran the numbers. 343 seats total, minus one for speaker, halved is 171. Assuming Canadian speakers follow Speaker Denison's Rule, exactly half isn't enough, so you need 172. So it looks like it is built in.

[–] FunderPants@lemmy.ca 3 points 7 hours ago

Good spot check, thanks