Doing some back of the napkin math, that sounds about right. The problem with saying, “don’t forget EV power comes from fossil fuels too”, is that it implies an equivalence between the two. They aren’t equivalent, a 50% reduction in carbon emissions is fantastic. Moreover, as you mentioned, EVs will improve their emissions in lockstep with improvements in the grid.

forgetting it is why the fucking EVs got so damn big. TODAY, a compact ICE, is about a wash with a big ev truck in North America and a hybrid drive or small EV is the way you actually cut your carbon output.

I agree we should move towards smaller cars on average. However, I think this is simply the car buyer preferences of today. The most popular ICEs are also big heavy SUVs and trucks. People who are shopping for big EV trucks want big trucks regardless of the powertrain type. They were never going to buy a small compact car, so it doesn’t make sense to make that comparison. You have to compare like-for-like.

With a like-for-like comparison, EVs aren’t nearly as dramatically heavier as many people say. Some examples:

• A Model 3 Performance weighs 4050 lbs. The most direct competitor, the BMW M3, weighs 3930 lbs.
• A base model Hyundai Kona in the US is 3000 lbs. the base model Kona EV is 3400 lbs
• A Chevy Bolt is 3700 lbs. A Mazda 3 is 3100 lbs.

Average out a ton of models, and it comes out to 10-15% heavier for an equivalent EV model. Add in that most EVs are more aerodynamic and EVs require a very similar amount of energy input to push them around.