this post was submitted on 06 Dec 2023
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I don't know anything about rural Kenya, but I'm skeptical that these particular findings could be applied to bigger economies. The market in the US seems extremely hostile to small businesses, so investment typically looks more like stock market participation and massive private equity for risky tech startups.
In that environment, I would bet that the steady passive income would perform better.
Maybe? It depends on scale, I think.
$500 isn't much, but $10-20K is enough capital to start a lot of businesses.
Using numbers from this source and doing a quick calculation shows that US median income is 27.8× larger than the median income in Kenya, so $500 in Kenya is analogous to ~$14K USD. So that scans with my ~10-20K estimate.
Developed countries could afford the equivalent of a $10-20K UBI with equitable taxation models. Most households would end up in a better financial situation net taxes, and those who end up in a worse situation financially are doing just fine. (The US could afford a big chunk of this just from switching to a single-payer healthcare system!)
If you're earning over $1MM/yr, then who the fuck cares if you're only taking home 20¢ on the dollar of marginal income? You can already afford to buy a whole house every year.
I think Western economies need to seriously prepare for this within the next few decades. Manufacturing automation and AI will continue to marginalize labor and social services will continue to expand to fill the gap.
UBI or ultimately a resources based economy could become the only way to provide for a population that once could afford to stoke the fires of consumerism. We will probably find ourselves there on accident. Meaning, the transition will be a disaster.