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It Will Be an Election Unlike Any We’ve Lived Through. Are the Democrats Prepared?
(newrepublic.com)
this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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politics
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If not voting Biden is a vote for Trump, wouldn't not voting Trump be a vote for Biden by the same logic? The logic only works if you assume all third party voters would be voting Democrat which isn't the case.
No, because you assume both sides are equally likely to switch their vote to third-parties. Right-wing voters are less susceptible to fits of conscience, and are much more reliable getting to the voting booths. They are more likely retirees, or zealous Fox News foot soldiers. The GOP knows this and that's why mushy "both sides suck" third-party pushes disfavor democrats.
The lowest rates of voter turnout are actually in red states on average, which are 50s-low 60s, and Trump arguably won because of the 13% of Obama-Trump swing voters. Not all Trump voters are even politically engaged just like most Americans, some see the media and Democrats going crazy about him yet haven't felt any impact of this on their daily lives so they don't connect with the "vote for us because we're not Trump" messaging at all. The most ignored group of Trump voters are people who just vote for him for some dumb superficial reason and don't really care about politics, next to Obama-Trump swing voters.
I hear your point, but I do think "Obama-Trump swing voters" is a defined group that is fun to talk about without any true diagnostic purpose. It captures too many different types of voters. They're not all just those who change affiliation with the slightest breeze - many are probably people who went down alt-right rabbit holes between 2012 and 2016, or the cumulative effect of Fox News, or voters who more often vote against the incumbent party seeking "change," and so on.
But also, even if the lowest rates of turnout is in red states, that doesn't mean that in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc GOP voters will be more reliably good foot soldiers. Turnout naturally will trend lower where the votes in fact matter the least, I'm sure that's true for both parties. The relevant metric is comparative voter turnout in swing states.
You know what I’m talking about. Of course not all third party voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, but how many leftists would otherwise vote for the Republican? I reeeally doubt these people are stumping for the American Freedom or Constitution candidates.
Trump arguably won in 2016 because of the 13% of Obama-Trump voters, Bernie-Trump supporters are also a thing, and not all Trump voters are politically engaged people as aren't many Democrats, and only about 66% of eligible Americans voted, with lowest rates in the 50s-low 60s being red states. A third party wouldn't necessarily only "steal" Democrat voters because this isn't a closed system with one option. The logic I presented there is perfectly valid because not everyone is a leftist, for "not voting Biden is a vote for Trump" to work you have to ignore a bunch of voters and potential voters. It's just something people say online for people to say "yes" to that has no relevance or impact on material politics at all.
I’m referring specifically to actual politically engaged people who refuse to vote for Biden because he isn’t progressive enough. Also, as I have not addressed it, I do get why they do refuse, as he would not be my first choice either, and I absolutely agree that Biden (and most democrats, tbh) needs to reach out to these voters because the base is more progressive than is reflected in their representation. I was aware of Bernie-Trump voters but, beyond their disdain for the establishment party politicians, I do not understand their motives; however, I will read up on it because it so baffles me.
I do hope that you’re right about this; being a mediocre white guy, I am not really in any danger of the fallout of a Trump presidency beyond what it would mean for all of us, but I don’t want to see more of what happened to marginalized people during his administration, as I fully expect things to be even worse if he gets in, just out of spite and due to redhats becoming even more deeply emboldened to act out. Not that they won’t act out otherwise, but I expect them to see themselves as self-appointed enforcers.