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Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn't have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +3 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia: Trump +7 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan: Trump +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Minnesota: Biden +3 same problem as New Mexico, it's an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Nevada: Trump +8 to +12
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Biden +8 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin: Trump +5 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2020-PG-no-allocations&game-view=map
Trump wins, 312 to 226.
This is a change from the last time I posted this where Trump won, 278 to 260. Michigan and Pennsylvania are both now polling for Trump instead of Biden.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Now he needs to pick up +44 which is a much, much, steeper ask...
In Pennsylvania, Biden leads in 3 of 4 January polls.
Why it's important to keep looking I guess, the last time I looked, the most recent polls were Morning Consult showing Trump up:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
You're learning the wrong lesson here...
The right lesson is to stop looking at only the most recent poll as if it's a good indicator of anything. There is a reason why professional election prediction models using a weighted combination of every poll, on top of things like historical election data, while factoring in things like uncertainty and time from now until the election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_bias
It could very well be that Trump is ahead and wins in every swing state, but you can't reasonably forecast that by looking at any single poll, even if it happens to be the most recent one.
People should understand that Trump is almost certain to be the Republican candidate and he has a very real chance of winning. People should also understand that Biden is almost certain to be the Democratic candidate and he also has a very real chance of winning.
No, you can't, which is why tracking them continually is important. Tracking the trend lines and momentum up until election day is valuable.
Just to be clear: your link shows that the most recent poll is Franklin & Marshall, which has Biden ahead.
That's what I'm saying, I should have re-checked the link. :) Entirely my fault.
I’d like to know why people are downvoting. Is this inaccurate?
People don't like downbeat Biden news, especially if it's true. Downvoting it isn't going to change things though. You have to be aware of what's happening to avert disaster.
It's very misleading (at best) to cherry-pick a single poll and use it as a heuristic for what would happen if the election was held today. There's a good reason why none of the big election forecasters do this. It's one thing to link individual state polls, and they are worth paying attention to, but if FiveThirtyEight thought they had enough data right now to build an accurate forecast without a huge amount of uncertainty, don't you think they would have done that themselves?
We aren't even out of the primary yet.
I see every sign of a Donald Trump win in November unless he is a convicted felon, which has become exceedingly unlikely at this point given the timeline. Almost all of the available evidence points to Donald Trump winning the election, and no matter how terrifying that proposition may be I am becoming more and more convinced it is going to be the eventuality.
Michigan rejected Trump hard in 22. His candidates failed everywhere. The state GOP is completely disorganized and broke. The UAW won big which is motivating for the left. Abortion was hugely motivating.
I think these polls are a referendum on Biden's Israel policy, but I also think Republicans will be unable to capitalize on it because their ground game here is shot. Combine that with the fact that Trump is spending the entire campaign season on trial which will impact his personal campaigning.
Who is ahead in the polls today is somewhat academic. By the end of election season, Trump is going to be destroyed here. I think Trumpism has been a zombie since 22 when their red wave hit a blue wall, and the party just hasn't realized it yet.
Grain of salt and all, but I give these polls little credence. It's a long campaign season yet and everything else favors Biden, particularly if he can salvage some kind of win in Israel.
Don't get it twisted, I want to believe you are correct, and on some days I do. However, there is just this nagging feeling I have that it is going to come down to the wire, and be way too close for comfort. If that is the case we better be expecting large scale civil unrest no matter which way that pendulum swings. That is my fear.
Many Arab-Americans in Michigan (and across the country) are running an "Abandon Biden" message over Biden's handling of the Gaza genocide.
I know. And it's a risk. Arab-American Dems seem to lean more conservative as well, at least from this outsider's perspective, but I think once the primaries are over and the choice is either Trump or Biden, they will recognize the alternative is worse still - especially if Biden is able to press Israel for some actual progress.
But, as I said, I think the trials are going to keep the national campaign off-balance and the local gang are in complete disarray. Every single Trump-backed candidate failed in 22. I strongly suspect they will have trouble getting everyone in lockstep this election.
I'm not an expert, I'm just a person with eyes and experience. The right-wing folks I know manage at best jokey support of Trump to annoy the left instead of intense passion. Obviously there are no guarantees, and frankly I suspect the economy will, as usual, be the ultimate decider. I just think all of the elements are in place for a Biden victory here. The last few elections (2 plus a few special elections) have tilted left of the polling and I think overturning Roe has had an effect that the polling organizations just haven't adjusted for.
I don't think many will go from voting Dem to Trump but I could see a lot of Dem voters just staying home instead.
It's inaccurate in Pennsylvania