this post was submitted on 02 Feb 2024
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politics

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[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 9 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Pennsylvania are both now polling for Trump

In Pennsylvania, Biden leads in 3 of 4 January polls.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 4 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Why it's important to keep looking I guess, the last time I looked, the most recent polls were Morning Consult showing Trump up:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

[–] donuts@kbin.social 19 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Why it’s important to keep looking I guess

You're learning the wrong lesson here...

The right lesson is to stop looking at only the most recent poll as if it's a good indicator of anything. There is a reason why professional election prediction models using a weighted combination of every poll, on top of things like historical election data, while factoring in things like uncertainty and time from now until the election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_bias

It could very well be that Trump is ahead and wins in every swing state, but you can't reasonably forecast that by looking at any single poll, even if it happens to be the most recent one.

People should understand that Trump is almost certain to be the Republican candidate and he has a very real chance of winning. People should also understand that Biden is almost certain to be the Democratic candidate and he also has a very real chance of winning.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 2 points 9 months ago

No, you can't, which is why tracking them continually is important. Tracking the trend lines and momentum up until election day is valuable.

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 4 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 children)

Just to be clear: your link shows that the most recent poll is Franklin & Marshall, which has Biden ahead.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 3 points 9 months ago

That's what I'm saying, I should have re-checked the link. :) Entirely my fault.