Also who's your pick for winner of the arbitrary 4-way american civil war? Personally I'm hoping for the West, but I'm worried Northeast might sneak victory in when nobody's looking
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This breakup's a little more interesting than most.
The Northeast will come out of this with a powerful Navy - but without DC and an Army to back them up I can't see them accomplishing much. But since their power is in financial institutions, is it really worth conquering them? Just let them slowly collapse like the UK.
The South has the bulk of the Army, a decent Navy, and all of the Natsec ghouls. I can see a Texas oil-powered military quickly establishing dominance - this 'aint the 1800s anymore, all of America has been de-industrialized, so the weakness that the South had in the Civil War doesn't really apply. But they would probably rather turn south and hit Mexico than tangle with the West unless their hubris is up - more on that in a moment.
The Midwest would probably become more like Canada in this scenario than Russia. They have enough manufacturing to not go down easy but I just don't see them sustaining a long war like Russia can - but the question is would conquering them be worth it when holding them would be so hard. I think the other successor states would rather just buy beer from them and leave them be.
The West ends up with most of the money, a powerful Navy, and a decent Army, so I think they're OP in this scenario. If they get put on their back foot by war they can fall back to the Rockies and defend until the end of time, which isn't an option that the South has because the Appalachians don't protect their most important states. Plus they get Alaskan oil and presumably control of America's Pacific sphere of influence? No contest tbh the West wins the only question is whether or not San Francisco has the stomach for war.
edit: oh yeah and it looks like everyone's got nukes except the Northeast lmao but I wouldn't want to bet my life on deterrence continuing to function.