This stuff always reminds me of China's nuclear program in the 60s. Like once the Sino-Soviet Split happened the US literally just assumed that Chinese people were too stupid to produce an atomic bomb. Even after China's first nuclear test in '64 the US would not recognize them as a nuclear power, and kept insisting they would be unable to develop nuclear armed ballistic missiles or thermonuclear weapons, both of which were then tested in the next two years and both times it was deeply shocking to the US foreign policy blob.
Also, the US went on to learning nothing from this becuase the exact same thing happened with North Korea which went from their first nuclear test to thermonuclear weapons in 10 years. Like in the early stages North Korea was very willing to surrender their nuclear weapons program for lifting of sanctions, but the US would never negotiate in good faith becuase they genuinely believed the North Koreans were to primitive to proceed to the next stage of development.
how could you possibly create nuclear ICBMs without a profit incentive!!!