this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
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back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now


Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


(page 7) 50 comments
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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 48 points 1 month ago (4 children)

me looking for the moscow connection: it's right there wowee

(it passed sadness )

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[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago

Russia MoD telegram

As a result of successful actions by the Tsentr Group of Forces, Novoalekseyevka (Donetsk People's Republic) has been liberated.

Russian Defence Ministry shows footage of servicemen supported by an armoured group rapidly entering forest belts and destroying enemy fortifications. In addition, attack drone crews defeat enemy hardware and manpower, helping assault detachments to advance.

As a result of active and decisive actions, the servicemen took especially important positions and installed the Russian flag in the village.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Pedro Bordaberry, son of former civic dictator of Uruguay and US puppet, Juan María Bordaberry (This guy was removed by the Army because even them thought he was too far-right for them), just congratulated the President-elect of Uruguay, the Leftist, Yamandu Orsi.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago

Venezuela rejected the approval by the United States House of Representatives of a bill that complements existing sanctions by prohibiting the U.S. from contracting with any person who has business with the Venezuelan government.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago

51 years after the Afro-Brazilian rights movement began fighting to designate November 20 as National Black Consciousness Day, it was finally sanctioned as a federal holiday (previously it was only a local holiday for some cities) by Pres. Lula this year, to the joy of Brazil's capoeira groups.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago

Javier Milei decides to join the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty, proposed by Brazil at the G20. Argentina was the only G20 nation not to have signed. It is not known whether the change came about due to diplomatic pressure, shame at isolation, or advice from Milei's dead dog

[–] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago (5 children)

It seems Chinese LLM models have caught up to western ones, even though they have inferior hardware. Also they say they're going to open source it.

DeepSeek’s first reasoning model R1-Lite-Preview turns heads, beating OpenAI o1 performance

https://venturebeat.com/ai/deepseeks-first-reasoning-model-r1-lite-preview-turns-heads-beating-openai-o1-performance/

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Russia Arrests German Over Sabotage Plots in Kaliningrad - Telesur English

Article

Previously, Nikolai Gaiduk also detonated an explosive device at a gas distribution station pipeline. On Wednesday, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced the detention of an individual in the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad who “arrived from Poland to carry out a new act of sabotage against energy infrastructure.”

The individual, a German citizen of Ukrainian origin, was identified as Nikolai Viktorovich Gaiduk, born in 1967, according to the official statement reported by the TASS news agency. The FSB also accuses Gaiduk of detonating an explosive device at a gas distribution station pipeline in Kaliningrad last March. During his recent trip to Russia, security agents found 0.5 liters of liquid explosive in his vehicle.

The FSB claims that Gaiduk was tasked with carrying out an attack in Kaliningrad by a Ukrainian citizen residing in Germany. A criminal case has been opened against him for terrorism and smuggling explosives, charges that could carry a maximum sentence of 27 years in prison.

During an interrogation, excerpts of which were broadcast on Russian state television, Gaiduk confessed to his involvement in the March 2024 attack. “A man I served with in the military contacted me… He asked if I was willing to do my part to help end the war. This happened in November 2023. I retrieved the bomb from a hiding spot. All I had to do was place it, remove the safety, and that was it,” he said.

In August, German citizen Rico Krieger, who had been sentenced to death in Belarus for fighting in Ukraine, returned to his country as part of the largest prisoner exchange between Russia, Belarus, and Western nations since the end of the Cold War.

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Some combat footage for today from the special military operation.

Russian forces liberated the Donetsk People’s Republic village of Novaya Ilyinka, north of the Kiev-occupied DPR city of Kurakhovo: https://s5.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/novaya_ilyinka.mp4?_=1

A Russian drone destroyed another US-supplied “Stryker” armored personnel carrier in Kursk oblast (18+): https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/11/19/864305.html

Russian forces destroyed more German-built Leopard tanks near Kurakhovo: https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/11/19/864112.html

Odessans started protesting against the Kiev regime due to being without power for almost three days: https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/11/19/864592.html

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (6 children)

Britain calling for ~~sanctions~~(misread) on Sudan at the UN Security Council

https://www.africanews.com/2024/11/18/britain-calls-for-un-action-on-sudan-boosts-humanitarian-aid/

The UK will seek UN Security Council support on Monday, November 18 to demand an end to Sudan’s conflict and ensure humanitarian aid delivery, the foreign ministry has announced.

As council president, Foreign Secretary David Lammy will lead a vote on a UK-Sierra Leone resolution urging civilian protection in Sudan. “The UK will never let Sudan be forgotten,” Lammy is set to say, while pledging to double UK aid for Sudan to £226 million ($285 million).

The power struggle between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces, ongoing since April 2023, has caused thousands of deaths and the world’s largest displacement crisis.

Lammy will also condemn Israel’s restrictions on Gaza aid, call for a ceasefire, and demand the release of hostages. On Ukraine, he will reaffirm Britain’s unwavering support against Russia’s invasion.

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[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago (3 children)

The exact scope of the American Biden regime's decision to attack Russia with ATACMS missiles is not known in detail. In an interview with state media DR foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen has expressed disappointment in what he believes to be a limited scope of the planned attacks:

If it were true that the U.S. had lifted geographic restrictions, that would be good. But I have a sense that this is relatively limited and likely focused on Kursk. And that’s, of course, better than nothing,

(DR found it fitting to embellish Rasmussen's statement by inserting a note about "Pentagon" claiming that there are 10,000 democratic Korean troops in the Kursk oblast. I have omitted it from the quote)

Even the Danish regime, who has been among the most bellicose, is now beginning to slowly realise that the west will not be able to impose it's maximalist demands on Russia. Rasmussen is now talking about how the purpose of the American ATACMS attacks is not to achieve victory but to make sure that Ukraine has the "strongest possible position for when and if the dynamics of this war change." He goes on to say that "It’s a sober prediction that this could happen sometime in the new year,"

Rasmussen continues:

President Zelensky has also stated that the war will likely shift to a diplomatic phase at some point. And it’s crucial that Ukraine has the strongest possible advantage in that scenario

...

One way to make a difference is to lift geographic restrictions (on the use of Western weapons). Unfortunately, I don’t currently see this happening one-to-one. But something is better than nothing,"

However, the Danish regime has yet to move to a more realistic position on the war. Rasmussen is mostly dismissive of German leader Olaf Scholz' attempts to resume dialogue with Russia by making a phone call to Putin. Rasmussen says:

If the purpose was to persuade Putin to end the war, it clearly didn’t succeed. Because immediately afterward, we saw one of the most massive Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in a very long time

This, of course, is a deeply unserious statement that should be seen as a symptom of the butthurt many western maximalists must be experiencing these days.

Despite his bruised ego, Rasmussen is enough of an opportunist to realise that the reality of the war is shifting both on the ground and in the imperial court of Washington where the incoming Trump regime might be less keen to continue the war. He says that European countries needs to understand "what's what" and says that "We must avoid a situation where we simply have no role to play. If the call aimed to ensure that, I’m more understanding".

He adds:

There’s nothing from that conversation suggesting President Putin is remotely ready to negotiate."

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[–] griefstricken@lemmy.ml 47 points 1 month ago
[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (13 children)

Pluto Enters Aquarius

Pluto, the planet of transformation, intensity, and rebirth, has entered Aquarius, a sign associated with innovation, humanitarianism, and collective progress. This transit, which began on November 19, 2024, and will last for nearly 20 years, promises to bring significant changes to individuals and society as a whole.

Key Themes:

Renewal and Revolution: Pluto in Aquarius will bring a focus on renewal, new beginnings, and spiritual and financial growth. However, it may also expose the darker aspects of human nature, such as obsession and power struggles.

Social Change: Aquarius rules themes like social organization, social media, humanitarianism, technology, equality, civil rights, and space exploration. Pluto’s influence may lead to sudden changes or disruptions in these areas, forcing humanity to confront and evolve.

Individual Transformation: For each zodiac sign, Pluto in Aquarius will bring unique challenges and opportunities. Some may experience profound growth, while others may struggle with intense emotions and desires.

Zodiac Sign Breakdown:

Aries: Pluto will transform your fulfillment and social sector, bringing major changes to your network and aspirations. Expect intense relationships and a desire for power.

Taurus: Pluto will revamp your professional sphere, focusing on self-worth and finances. You may experience a shift in your values and a desire to ask for what you truly deserve.

Gemini: Pluto will influence your communication and intellectual pursuits, potentially leading to a focus on truth and authenticity.

Cancer: Pluto will touch your emotional and family dynamics, encouraging you to confront and heal from past wounds.

Leo: Pluto will transform your relationships, pushing you to form deeper, more meaningful connections that nourish your heart and soul.

Virgo: Pluto will focus on your health and daily routines, urging you to prioritize self-care and sustainable habits.

Libra: Pluto will revolutionize your love life, encouraging you to explore new aspects of romance, passion, and creativity.

Scorpio: Pluto will bring deep emotional healing, helping you break free from family patterns and beliefs that hold you back.

Sagittarius: Pluto will influence your philosophical and adventurous pursuits, potentially leading to a greater sense of purpose and fulfillment.

Capricorn: Pluto will transform your financial zone, focusing on your connection to money and possessions. Expect intense desires and a willingness to do whatever it takes to achieve your goals.

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[–] Socialism_Is_The_Alternative@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Some news and combat footage from the Donbass.

Russian forces have now liberated around one third of the Kiev-occupied Donetsk People’s Republic city of Kurakhovo: https://southfront.press/battles-reached-centre-of-kurakhovo-russians-launched-new-assault-from-the-north/

Russian FPV drones destroy US-built M113 armored personnel carrier and a mortar position: https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/11/20/866840.html

Russian FPV drone hunts and destroys German-built Marder infantry fighting vehicle: https://s5.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Marder-1A3.mp4?_=3

Vietnam detained and extradited to Belarus the deputy commander of a Kiev regime Nazi battalion: https://news-pravda.com/ukraine/2024/11/20/867483.html

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[–] Aquilae@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago (12 children)

Russia vetoes Sudan ceasefire resolution put forward by the UK

Russia was the only member of the 15-member council to vote against the measure on Monday morning, in a move that British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said was “mean, nasty and cynical”.

In an address to the Security Council after the vote, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the UN said that Moscow agreed “that the conflict in Sudan requires a swift resolution” and that “the only way to achieve this is for the warring parties to agree to a ceasefire”.

But Dmitry Polyanskiy said that while the Security Council’s role is to help the warring parties achieve that, it “should not be done by imposing upon the Sudanese, through a council decision, the opinion of its individual members”.

He accused the UK and Sierra Leone of “double standards”, pointing to Britain’s support of Israel’s ongoing humanitarian violations in its war in Gaza, and said Lammy’s criticism was an “excellent demonstration of British neo-colonialism”.

“It is shocking that Russia has vetoed an effort to save lives – though perhaps, it shouldn’t be,” Thomas-Greenfield said on Monday after the Security Council vote. “They claim it is because of Sudanese sovereignty. But Sudan supports the resolution.”

Isn't this a terrible look? Though I doubt a UN resolution alone would change much.

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[–] sisatici@hexbear.net 47 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Everyone in pissrahell could convert to Islam and I will still hate pissrahell. What makes them think I don't want to knock the teeth off from Muslim zionazis too.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 46 points 1 month ago

Two of the crimes attributed to Bolsonaro are set out in a law that he himself signed when he was president of the Republic. In 2021, the then president sanctioned, with vetoes, the law that punishes attacks against democracy, approved by the National Congress. Crimes under this law served as the basis for the Federal Police report.

He probably wanted to use this against leftists?

After being indicted for attempted coup, Bolsonaro attacks Moraes and says he will wait for his lawyer to make further comments. Bolsonaro spoke to the reporter from the “Metrópoles” portal and then posted the interview on his profile on the X social network.

“Minister Alexandre de Moraes conducts the entire investigation, adjusts testimonies, arrests without charges, fishes for evidence and has a very creative advisory. He does everything the law doesn't say,” said the former president.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 46 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Ukraine To Lose War if U.S. Cuts Funding: Zelensky - Telesur English

Article

He acknowledged that the war’s end depends ‘much more’ on what the United States does. On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that Ukraine would lose its territorial unity and be defeated by Russia if the United States cuts funding for the war.

“If they cut [funding], I think we will lose,” he said categorically during an interview with Trey Yingst, which aired on Fox’s Special Report, marking over 1,000 days since the war between Russia and Ukraine began.

“Of course, we will stay and fight regardless. We have production capabilities, but it’s not enough to win. And I think it’s not enough to survive. But if that’s the American choice, then we’ll decide what we have to do,” Zelensky clarified.

In the interview, conducted from one of Ukraine’s battlefronts, Zelensky also stressed that it would be “very dangerous” if Ukraine began losing unity internally or with Europe.

“This period, this moment depends, I think, on our unity in Ukraine. And I think what is very dangerous is losing unity within Europe and, more importantly, the unity between Ukraine and the United States,” Zelensky argued, reiterating that diplomacy remains the pathway to ending the war, though he expressed doubts about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to engage in peace talks.

When asked whether ending the war depends on Putin, Zelensky asserted, “Today, it largely depends on Putin. He can do it. He could be willing to end this war.” However, he added that the war’s end depends “much more” on what the United States does, as it is a country with “strength, power, and weapons, and it can lower the cost of energy resources.”

On Tuesday, the presidents of the European Commission, the European Council, and the European Parliament pledged the European Union’s enduring support for Ukraine.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged that the coming winter could be “stormy and terrifying” due to recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. To date, the EU has provided Ukraine with nearly US$114 billion in financial, humanitarian, and military aid.

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[–] griefstricken@lemmy.ml 46 points 1 month ago
[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 46 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Trump's treasury secretary (i know its copy pasting wiki but it's good info on his background)

Bessent founded Key Square Group in 2015 with Michael Germino, who had been the global head of capital markets at SFM.[20] Key Square uses geopolitics and economics to make macro investments.[15] Key Square received a $2 billion anchor investment from George Soros.[21] At the end of 2017, Key Square's assets were $5.1 billion.[21][22] Bloomberg in May 2018 reported that Key Square had mostly outperformed rival macro managers and continued to generate significant investor interest.[21] As part of a pre-arranged deal, the firm returned the Soros capital as it took in other assets.[21] Its investors include Australia's sovereign wealth fund, Future Fund.[22]

In 2000, Bessent hosted a fundraiser for Al Gore at his East Hampton, New York, home.[23] He has also donated to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.[24] In 2016, Bessent donated $1 million to Donald Trump's 2017 presidential inaugural committee.[25]

In February 2024, Bessent hosted a fundraiser in Greenville, South Carolina, that raised nearly $7 million for Donald Trump's 2024 campaign.[26] In April 2024, Bessent was a host for a Palm Beach, Florida, fundraiser that raised $50 million for the Trump campaign.[27] In July 2024, Bloomberg Businessweek reported that Bessent was a key economic advisor to Trump.[28] He proposed a three-point economic plan for Trump modeled on Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Three Arrows" economic policy.[29] Bessent praised Trump's proposal to implement broad tariffs.[30]

He wants a strong Dollar so he can bet against other currencies? There is really no reason for anyone in the US to be pro broad tariffs other than rhetoric or if it benefits them personally.

If you are a tiny developing country, sure. Wide tariffs and controls on trade would allow for more room for imports that promote development for everyone, but U.S. and the West are not that. Also keep in mind despite Trump's rhetoric about tariffs and controls on trade, he has always been pro-free capital flows.

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