It's an interesting idea. If their thesis is true, it might cause compression of the income range.
this post was submitted on 21 Feb 2025
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Working in the field I think there is two things AI will make an impact on:
- Going after low skill white collar work (basically further automation of semi-skilled labor)
- Being an excuse to undercut high-skill white collar labor wages.
However, I suspect we'll get a lot of the issues we saw with "outsourcing" where the end result is businesses pursuing cheaper outputs without concern for quality.
I read an Economist article about the expected impact of AI on worker productivity and it found a major bifurcation of impacts.
If AI output could be trusted as is, productivity gains mainly went to less productive workers as they were able to benefit the most from a tool doing the hard parts of the job. This could reduce wages since you can lower job requirements by using AI.
If AI output needed human processing and review, productivity gains mainly went to high performers as they were able to benefit the most from a tool doing the easy parts of the job. This could reduce employment as high performers can do more by using AI.