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Surely they are running out of troops. How many people do they have to toss at the grinder?
They drew up draft orders for Moscow. Which they haven't send out since the start of the war. Shoigu said he wants a army of 10 million.. Which is possible and would outnumber all of Nato combined. Now if they can afford it and keep it fed is another issue..
Maybe it is theoretically possible, but that would be 1/4th of their population ages 18-44. They would have to dedicate their entire economy to just supporting the army, no ither industry would be able to survive.
Out of curiosity, how is this ratio relative to some place like North Korea?
That’s a good example actually; it looks like 30% of N Korea is in the military, and their global standing reflects this
They won't even have enough shovels for 10 million soldiers. Guess we'll be seeing meat waves of guys with pointy sticks, then.
Bad news is that they still have mosin nagants. There were almost 1/2 a billion of them made. I'm surprised they haven't pulled them out of storage on a larger scale yet.
they pulled, to sell for alcohol, or it never existed to begin with
Considering how many they shipped here, you might be right...some oligarch told the ussr they made 1/2 a billion but really just made 50million, then sold most of them off for pennies.
Their stock has been slowly dwindling down from people using them as baseball bats, table legs, and firewood
Probably around 80 million, give or take
Here's my prediction for historical purposes:
That's it. That's my prediction based on having lived through the cold war and being interested in history.
I really fucking hope I'm wrong.
Here's where you're wrong: Finland. It provides easy striking distance for St Petersburg and Murmansk (which is an important naval base). Hit St Petersburg, and the Baltic states are at far less risk of being cut off.
Strike Sevestapol, and Russia is cut off from the Atlantic.
Balarus isn't guaranteed to stay a Russian ally, either. That's Lukashenko's thing, but his grip on power could still slip away.
I hear you but Russia has made it clear that any existential threat will result in nuclear war so that rules out going onto their internationally recognised land without risking that.
Taking back invaded land is a different matter as we've seen.
Edit: And I've limited understanding on this but I thought Belarus had already agreed to become part of the Russian federation. I hold out hope they'll move back to democracy and agree that would definitely change things strategically.
Russia has made it clear that any existential threat will result in nuclear war
putin said that, kill him and his generals aren't going to stay behind to a dead guy
A fucking wrong sneeze on Russian soil is enough for a nuclear threat. If he's going to do it, we can't do shit about it anyway, because he's going to use all excuses left in the book. He's going to spin some narrative and either Russians will actually grow a spine and refuse the order - or won't.
The only thing we can hope is, that they didn't change the plutonium in the warheads so they are all duds.
I agree that's probably the plan.
The problem with that plan is that nuclear NATO countries have a very clear policy of launching in case of a NATO country being invaded. And nobody expects a nuke not to be met with more nukes.
Russian subs are shit. And won't be able to stop Western naval power.
Every warm water Russian port is well within bombing range.
The US is setup to fight a two front war. And it's not even on a war production footing.
We're under no obligation to strike back in the Baltics. We could easily snap an alliance with Ukraine, and unleash the F-35 and B-21 on that very large front. Russian supplies, and command, will cease to exist over night. And their front lines shortly thereafter. Their Air Force couldn't get superiority against Ukraine. They aren't going to last five minutes against the US Air Force and Navy. (The Marine planes will be busy teaching the Chinese the same lesson)
you are puting to much faith in their organizational capability, also logistics, the same argument was made for the 3 days military operation, also putin is going to be dead by them
That’s a pretty reasonable prediction; I’d add that the optimal time would be year 3 of a trump presidency.
I am woundering when russia decides to use tactical nukes in Ukraine. - the way they are gonnna spin the last terrorist attack( assuming its not an inside job..prob is.) sure does not give me warm fuzzy feelings about their desparation....
I feel like it's an inevitability, personally. They'll call it territorial defense, given their claims on Donetsk and Luhansk and / or in the opening shots of a NATO war to show they mean business.
I feel they missed the window for this after the Kharkiv withdrawal. At this point the US has made it clear they would respond with conventional strikes on military targets.
russia has proven to be toothless save the one big fang of nuclear weapons.
this idea that troops on the border of nato matters to literally anyone is kinda of comical. clearly optics for ignorant russians.
I mean, it’s easy for someone in the US or Western Europe to say but I’d be far less enthusiastic if I was in the Baltics, they’re the ones in the crosshairs.
that is a good point. just being near human killing devices increases your chance of dying by them.
I get your point though, Russia is in no position to reasonably threaten NATO at the moment. They should be closely monitored to keep it that way
“Is returning”?
"got up from bed and out of it's slump", I guess.
That's a fun idea. I'm guessing they got some kind of guarantee from China that they won't just walk into Vladivostok?