Illegal arms trafficking from the United States to Mexico is a long-standing phenomenon and is pointed out by Mexican authorities as key to sustaining drug violence in much of the country. This situation is pointed out time and again by President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has turned this phenomenon into a constant diplomatic denunciation.
In her most recent statements, the head of state demanded that Washington assume responsibility for controlling arms trafficking from its territory, and arrests linked to drug laundering and distribution occurring in the US (on fentanyl and opioids), based on the principle of sovereignty: "You can't just talk about Mexico, because who sells and launders the money in the United States?
According to the most recent ATF report (2019-2024), 74% of guns recovered from criminals in Mexico come from the U.S. and were legal at the time of their first sale. In 2023 and 2024, Texas contributed 43% of the traced guns, Arizona 22% and California 9% - that is, these three states alone account for nearly three-quarters of the documented trafficking.
The most prominent precedent is that of August 2021, when Mexico filed a lawsuit against 11 U.S. gun companies. The companies sued include some of the most powerful manufacturers: Smith & Wesson; Barrett Firearms Manufacturing; Bereta; Century Arms International; Colt Manufacturing Company; Glock; Sturm, Ruger & Co and Witmer Public Safety Group, among others. The annual sales of these firms to clients in Mexico, according to the Mexican Government, exceed 340,000 weapons per year, and this only for the legal course.
Meanwhile, thousands of weapons enter illegally from the U.S. to different Mexican states through 11 main routes identified by the Mexican Ministry of Defense.
These routes concentrate 32 percent of all traced weapons that were later used by cartels such as the CJNG or Sinaloa, and 82 percent of these weapons were recovered in states where these criminal groups operate with consolidated territorial control.
Mexico reports that between November 2024 and May 2025, nearly 5,900 firearms, 31,868 magazines, more than 1.2 million cartridges and 289 grenades were seized in border operations and internal routes. This offensive represents a state resilience that has yet to dismantle the criminals' arms network.
The most recovered weapons are semi-automatic pistols (close to 50% of the traces) and semi-automatic rifles (33%), followed by revolvers (9%) and shotguns (6%). The growing use of homemade weapons (ghost guns) without serial numbers, because they are not subject to U.S. controls and are more difficult to trace, is noteworthy.
The cartels also employ military-style rifles (AK-47, AR-15 and variants), as well as large-caliber machine guns (Browning M2 .50, FN M240, FN M249), used for violent confrontations and protection of their routes, clandestine stores and production laboratories.
These weapons, although legally manufactured in the U.S., then turn to the clandestine market. An independent analysis of more than 133,000 traced guns found that nearly 30 percent were of four brands: Glock, Colt, Smith & Wesson and Beretta, companies also being sued by the Mexican government in U.S. courts in 2022 for negligence in allowing this flow into Mexico.
Recent research reveals that independent gun shops account for most of the trafficking: of the 83% of traced guns originating in the US, the majority came from stores such as Zeroed In Armory or CDNN Sports in Texas and Arizona.
Some of these stores sold hundreds of guns accompanied by magazines and ammunition that were directly linked to Mexican cartels and even use in murders in Mexico and the U.S. These legal stores were publicly denounced as facilitators of trafficking (although no massive criminal convictions have been handed down against them in the U.S.).
According to a report by ASIS and The Trace, the use of ghost guns, stolen large-caliber weapons or untraceable rifles, has grown, although it declined slightly in 2023. However, the problem remains: legal demand and continued access to manufacturers make the U.S. an irreplaceable source of lethal weaponry.
Authorities estimate that between 200,000 and 750,000 U.S.-made weapons enter Mexico illegally each year, an amount unthinkable without legal infrastructure such as ATF and federally licensed gun shops, which do not block purchases that appear “suspicious” for smuggling.
Statements and strategy of President Sheinbaum
The President has been emphatic: cooperation with the US does not imply subordination, and Mexican sovereignty must be respected. She rejected offers of U.S. military intervention (such as Trump's possible sending of troops) and reaffirmed that any assistance must operate within the legal limits of the Mexican Constitution and with full state coordination (not unilateral).
Sheinbaum announced that she will expand the legal action against the U.S. arms industry, as well as constitutional reforms to impose harsher penalties against arms traffickers, including them among the crimes subject to preventive imprisonment and limiting foreign interventions not authorized by the Mexican State.
In addition, he valued concrete advances: for example, an important seizure of arms and ammunition intercepted in Texas -16 arms bound for Mexico- at the Del Rio International Bridge. He acknowledged that collaboration has worked, while warning that without greater regulation and control, the problem will continue to replicate cycles of violence and death in Mexico and the United States.
The United States finally passed the “ATF Data and Anti-Trafficking Accountability Act” in June 2025, which mandates the annual publication of disaggregated gun trace data, including major distributors and recovery cities.
In addition, the Merida Initiative program began funding training, tracing technology and joint operations with Mexico to interdict trafficking routes, although its implementation has been limited and questioned by Mexico for lack of convincing results on gun violence reduction (Expected expenditure: ~74 million USD, but modest perceived impact).
Mexico, for its part, deployed 10,000 National Guard elements to the northern border, under Operation Border, and maintains daily coordination channels with U.S. authorities to intercept weapons, money and drugs. However, it claims that the U.S. must assume its part of the problem, because many criminal operations are carried out in U.S. territory (the sale and laundering of fentanyl and the economic resources derived from it).
“Our country is also affected on that side,” the Mexican president said on Friday in her usual conference every morning, and it is a position that Mexico held in multiple meetings with the U.S. security cabinet and the U.S. ambassador.
Costs in Mexico
Drug-related violence has left a chronic homicide rate, village massacres and an internally displaced population. Although Sheinbaum's strategy has managed to reduce daily homicides by around 25%, violent structures remain.
Fentanyl consumption is growing in the US, and in Mexico the circulation of weapons increases the intensity of shootings and massacres (as in Guanajuato, Zacatecas and Sinaloa). The figures show that criminal groups have access to modern military weaponry, and civilian victims have paid the price.
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74% of the weapons recovered in Mexico come from the U.S., something acknowledged by both sides and demonstrated by ATF traces and official reports.
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President Sheinbaum demands responsibility and action from the U.S. side: not only Mexico should be the focus of anti-drug discourse; the U.S. must address its own trafficking and consumption channels.
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Trafficking routes from Texas, Arizona and California to areas dominated by cartels such as Sinaloa or Jalisco are well identified, but remain operational.
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Weapons range from legal civilian pistols to large caliber rifles, automatic rifles and ghost guns, used in direct attacks and confrontations.
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Although there is institutional cooperation (bilateral channels, Merida Initiative, information exchange), the flow is not yet stopped: Mexico considers that the United States does not apply sufficient regulation and sanitization of the domestic market.
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The political demand for legal enforceability and Mexican sovereignty (resisting U.S. military presence) marks a new stage of bilateral dialogue.
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