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The national security advisor to the Estonian president is the latest NATO nation official to weigh into the debate over the wisdom of foreign forces in Ukraine, while a senior British officer said it's still "not a path that the [UK] Prime Minister wants to go down".

The government of Estonia is “seriously” discussing the possibility of sending troops into western Ukraine to take over non-direct combat, “rear” roles from Ukrainian forces in order to free them up to fight on the front, though no decision is imminent, Tallinn’s national security advisor to the president told Breaking Defense.

Madis Roll said the executive branch is currently undertaking an analysis of the potential move, and though he said Estonia would prefer to make any such move as part of a full NATO mission — “to show broader combined strength and determination” — he didn’t rule out Estonia acting in a smaller coalition.

“Discussions are ongoing,” he said on May 10 at the presidential palace here. “We should be looking at all the possibilities. We shouldn’t have our minds restricted as to what we can do.” He also emphasized that it’s “not unthinkable” that NATO nations opposed to such a move would change their minds “as time goes on.”

Following publication of this report, Madis clarified that such a decision is not pending before the Estonian prime minister or her cabinet specifically, and he meant only that the discussion “is not dead” and is “ongoing in Estonia in general.” “We have not excluded any option in the future,” he said.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur on May 14 told the European news outlet ERR such talks haven’t “gone anywhere” in Tallin.

“There is nothing new here. When France came up with the idea of considering whether Europe and the allies could do more, it has been floated in various discussions, but it has not gone anywhere, because at the moment there is no clear understanding among the allies of what it adds,” Pevkur said. “There is certainly no initiative by Estonia and certainly Estonia alone is not going to do anything.”

Roll’s boss, Estonian President Alar Karis, holds a position with many ceremonial duties relative to the nation’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, but he is ultimately Estonia’s commander-in-chief and is a key figure in foreign policy.

Roll’s comments came after the head of Estonia’s defense forces, Gen. Martin Herem, told Breaking Defense earlier last week there had been discussions in the military months ago about sending troops to western Ukraine to take on jobs like medical services, logistics or air defense for some western cities, but the air had gone out of those talks after the idea became a public lightning rod.

Herem and Pevkur were referring to the outcry that followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s declaration that Western nations must be open to discussing sending their troops in to aid Ukraine. (Kallas, the Estonian PM, in March appeared to defend Macron’s statement, noting that he wasn’t talking specifically about sending ground troops into combat. “In the exact same way, I can assure you that our soldiers will not go there to fight,” she said.)

Also earlier last week a key Estonian lawmaker, Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Marko Mihkelson, told Breaking Defense that European nations “have to start thinking about a coalition of the willing” to more directly help Kyiv, potentially with direct combat forces. (The Estonian officials spoke last week to an audience from the Kaplan Public Service Foundation; Breaking Defense accepted accommodation in Estonia from KPSF.)

The willingness of different nations to send some forces into Ukraine is a potential dividing line inside NATO. Although each member of the alliance is free to send forces where it feels it must for its national interests, some nations have been clear they see more risk than reward in doing so.

Notably, Germany and the US have flatly rejected the idea of sending in troops. The US Ambassador to Estonia, George Kent, pointed Breaking Defense to the Biden administration’s policy of aiding Ukraine through significant aid packages, but a firm commitment not to send in American soldiers.

Asked May 9 in Washington how Russia could react to NATO-nation forces being in Ukraine, British Chief of Defense Adm. Sir Tony Radakin was evasive, saying, “I won’t go into too much commentary on your question, if you don’t mind … The UK position is very clear in terms of, that’s not a path that the Prime Minister wants to go down.

However, he emphasized that the UK position is not “being governed by how Russia will react.” Instead, he said, it is based around what the UK views as the best approach overall: “I think that what you’ve seen all the way through, is a UK that has done the right thing, based on its judgment of what’s needed to be done.”

In contrast, there is Macron’s statement, as well as Lithuanian prime minister Ingrida Simonytė who recently told the Financial Times she was open to sending Lithuanian troops into Ukraine to train Kyiv’s forces there. The FT wrote that Simonytė predicted Russia could see the move as an escalation, but added, “If we just thought about the Russian response, then we could not send anything. Every second week you hear that somebody will be nuked.”

TLDR: - China's president Xi wants to maintain an alliance with Putin's Russia, while also knowing that close ties with a pariah puts at risk his stable ties with the West which he needs to help his ailing economy.

- The costly war in Ukraine has changed their relationship, exposing the weaknesses in Russia’s army and its economy.

- China’s interests are not Russia’s interests. As the senior partner in this relationship, Mr Xi will likely co-operate when it suits him – even if his “dear friend” and ally needs him.

Vladimir Putin’s state visit to China this week was a show of strength. It was a chance for the Russian president to prove to the world that he has a powerful ally in his corner.

The Russian leader is widely regarded as a pariah after ordering the invasion of Ukraine. But to China’s President Xi Jinping, he is a key partner in seeking a new world order that is not led by the US.

And Mr Xi made his guest welcome. He rolled out the red carpet, the band played old Red Army songs, and cheering children greeted both leaders as they strolled through Tiananmen Square. There was even a brief hug for the cameras.

Russian and Chinese state media focused heavily on the camaraderie between the two leaders. But in truth, this is no longer a partnership of equals.

Mr Putin came to China cap in hand, eager for Beijing to continue trading with a heavily sanctioned and isolated Russia. His statements were filled with honeyed tones and flattering phrases.

He said that his family were learning Mandarin – this was particularly noteworthy because he very rarely talks about his children in public.

He declared that he and Mr Xi were “as close as brothers” and went on to praise China’s economy, saying it was “developing in leaps and bounds, at a fast pace”. This will likely play well with Beijing officials worried by a sluggish economy.

But Mr Xi himself did not echo the tone of these lofty compliments. Instead, his remarks were more perfunctory – even bland. Mr Putin, he said, was a “good friend and a good neighbour”. For China, the welcome ceremony and show of unity is in its interests, but lavishing its guest with praise is not.

The costly war in Ukraine, which shows no signs of ending, has changed their relationship, exposing the weaknesses in Russia’s army and its economy. Mr Xi will know that he is now in charge.

The war has isolated Russia. China’s ties with the West may be tense, but Beijing has not cut itself off from the world like Russia, nor does it want to.

While the public statements may have lacked enthusiasm, President Xi did hint at the importance that China places on the relationship.

He invited Mr Putin to his official residence, Zhongnanhai. Few leaders are afforded that honour - US President Barack Obama being among them back in 2014, when ties between the two were at their best.

President Xi is attempting a fine balance - he wants to maintain an alliance with Mr Putin, while also knowing that close ties with a pariah puts at risk his stable ties with the West which he needs to help his ailing economy.

The fact is, this visit was all about the money: Mr Putin needs China’s support for his war in Ukraine.

The make-up of the Russian leader’s entourage was a sign of what he hoped to get out of the trip: he brought with him the governor of Russia’s Central Bank, his finance minister and his economics advisor.

The joint statement released to mark the visit also contained some eye-catching ideas to increase trade – building a port on an island which the two countries once wrangled over for more than 100 years, and speaking to North Korea to see if Chinese ships could navigate through a key river to reach the Sea of Japan.

It mentioned the word “co-operation” 130 times.

All of this will, of course, have been carefully watched by the US. Last month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned China to stop fuelling Russia’s war and trading in components that could be used in Russian drones and tanks.

So they will not have missed the fact Mr Putin toured a state-backed university famous for its cutting-edge defense research during Friday’s visit to the city of Harbin.

The tour - and the ceremony and symbolism surrounding this visit - certainly appears to suggest Mr Xi is determined to prove that he will not be swayed by pressure from the West.

But behind the scenes of this show of unity, there may be limits to how far Mr Xi is prepared to go.

After all, China’s interests are not Russia’s interests. As the senior partner in this relationship, Mr Xi will likely co-operate when it suits him – even if his “dear friend” and ally needs him.

- Total credit demand in China fell in April for first time since 2005 - China has increasingly hidden negative data in recent years

A series of research reports from Chinese brokerages on the country’s recent bad credit data disappeared from social media over the weekend, highlighting the increasing difficulty of getting reliable information about the world’s second-largest economy.

At least seven research reports from mainland brokerages and securities firms that had been posted to WeChat by analysts were unavailable for viewing on Monday. The link to six of the reports now leads to an error message saying the content couldn’t be viewed after complaints about unspecified violations of rules governing public accounts.

A report from China Merchants Securities Co. was deleted from a WeChat account where the brokerage’s fixed-income analyst Zhang Wei usually posts research, according to a screenshot of the posting viewed by Bloomberg News.

Reports from analysts at Zheshang Securities Co., Guosheng Securities Co., GF Securities Co., China International Capital Corp., Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co. and Soochow Securities Co. were also unavailable for viewing or had been taken down before Monday morning.

None of the seven companies responded to requests for comment.

China has increasingly hidden negative data over the past few years, making it harder for investors to accurately judge what is happening in the economy. The nation’s exchanges are set to switch off a live feed of foreign money flows into stocks as early as Monday, the latest example of closely-watched information being removed.

The data released over the weekend showed that total credit demand fell in April for the first time since 2005. That unexpectedly bad result was driven by weak demand from companies and households to borrow, and also by local governments across the country pulling back on selling bonds.

The data released over the weekend showed that total credit demand fell in April for the first time since 2005. That unexpectedly bad result was driven by weak demand from companies and households to borrow, and also by local governments across the country pulling back on selling bonds.

China’s the top securities newspapers attempted to put a positive spin on the data. A front-page article

in China Securities Journal on Monday suggested the credit data would stabilize and pick up once the government started issuing more bonds.

The central government said it will start selling ultra-long bonds from Friday, although that likely won’t immediately turn around the falling demand for mortgage loans from households or the weak demand from companies to borrow money.

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/13856220

https://archive.is/CVhhG

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Following a series of high-profile failures and mass expulsions of uniformed “diplomats,” Russian intelligence has turned to more subtle methods, including leveraging scientific organizations with international ties. One such espionage “front” is the National Research Institute for the Development of Communications (NIIRK), which is led by ex-SVR and FSB officers. In Europe and neighboring countries, the institute organizes numerous conferences and internships. Here, intelligence officers and pro-Kremlin propagandists, under the pretense of promoting good neighborly relations, spread the notion that the West is an enemy, and that prosperity lies in friendship with Russia. The main targets are promising students and young scientists, who are ultimately groomed for espionage activities.

On June 19, 2023, Moscow’s usually quiet Korobeinikov Lane was unexpectedly closed off. Athletic-looking men with radios were bustling around its perimeter. Soon, an honor guard and official cars with flashing lights appeared. People carrying carnations gathered in front of the building that houses the National Research Institute for the Development of Communications (NIIRK). The last to arrive for the festivities was SVR head Sergey Naryshkin, who presided over the installation of a memorial plaque for former SVR director Vyacheslav Trubnikov. Speeches followed: “Vyacheslav Ivanovich worked here for two years,” “an outstanding intelligence officer and diplomat,” “a legend of intelligence,” “a knight of the Cold War,” and so on.

Before the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, the house was home to actors Alexander Lensky and Alexander Yuzhin-Sumbatov of the Maly Theatre. Later, it was occupied by the NKVD, MGB, and KGB; the mansion hosted clandestine meetings with agents. After 1993, several businesses were based there, but over time, the place fell into disrepair, and homeless people took over the vacant premises. In April 2020, the restored mansion became the new home of NIIRK. Cars belonging to the embassies of Central Asian and Transcaucasian republics began appearing outside.

What kind of institute is this? According to its website, NIIRK’s primary mission is “the development of multilateral dialogue among peoples, cultures, religions, states, international scientific and educational organizations, and civil society to strengthen peace and harmony.” The institute’s expert research and analysis are utilized by the Presidential Administration's Office for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, foreign aid and cultural exchange agency Rossotrudnichestvo, the FSB's 5th Service, and the SVR.

The institute’s first official director was Irina Zavesnitskaya, co-founder of the PoiskSidelki LLC. A year later, she was succeeded by her husband, former FSB general and overseer of the Transcaucasian region, Vladislav Gasumyanov.

Friends of the Kremlin

As per The Insider's findings, over the past eighteen months, NIIRK has organized a total of twelve off-site conferences, forums, and roundtable discussions across various countries including Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Transnistria, Tajikistan, and Slovakia. Moreover, NIIRK has welcomed several delegations from these nations to Moscow for internships, with plans to host approximately ten more this year.

The institute primarily targets young scientists — aged 20 to 40 employed in research or academia. As one Armenian student shared with The Insider, “Throughout the internship, we were constantly reminded that without Russia, we would be doomed to become slaves to the West. Once, they casually asked me if I had relatives in Europe. Upon hearing my negative response, they lost interest in me.”

Key speakers at these conferences include General Gasumyanov, former SVR Academy head Nikolay Gribin, and former Slovak Prime Minister Jan Černogurský, who chairs the “Friends of Crimea” association. Černogurský frequently appears on Russian propaganda TV shows, where he advocates a pro-Kremlin agenda for his country of citizenship while predicting the imminent collapse of the dollar and the subsequent disintegration in the United States.

The building on Korobeinikov Lane is a frequent host to presidents from the Russian-occupied Georgian “republics” of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, along with representatives from Moldova’s Russian-occupied Transnistria region. Last year, a delegation from Vietnam even paid a visit.

The institute’s leadership also makes the rounds, with Gasumyanov visiting Serbia to hold negotiations with leaders of the For Peace and Justice in Afghanistan movement (DMSA). Spearheaded by former Afghan intelligence chief Masum Stanikzai, DMSA was established by senior officials from the previous administration who fled from the Taliban regime. It appears that the Kremlin is playing a double game: on one hand, it welcomes the Taliban to Moscow, while on the other hand, it engages with their sworn enemies.

Among other partners, NIIRK is known to have connections with the Awami Party from Pakistan. Since its founding in 1986, the group has been aligned with Moscow and was the only political force in Pakistan to support the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which lasted from 1979-1989. A source from Russia’s Veterans of Foreign Intelligence Association, who requested anonymity, informed The Insider that General Trubnikov — the figure honored by the memorial plaque on the NIIRK building — was well acquainted with the leadership of Awami during his tenure at the KGB residency in Islamabad.

In February 2024, NIIRK organized a conference titled “United Kingdom - EU - Russia - Middle East: Challenges and Perspectives.” Notably, the discussions took place not in Moscow, but in Bratislava, Slovakia. Among the speakers were Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker Luboš Blaha, who accused the United States and NATO of provoking the conflict in Ukraine.

Another notable participant was former Austrian counterintelligence general Gustav Gustenau, who in 2019 was dismissed due to serious suspicions of connections with Jan Marsalek, the fugitive COO of the payment company Wirecard. In 2020, Marsalek fled to Russia. The Insider recently published yet another article in a series of investigations concerning Marsalek’s ties to Russian intelligence.

Patrushev's man in Transcaucasia

NIIRK head Gasumyanov has long been referred to as “Patrushev's man” (a reference to longtime Security Council head Nikolai Patrushev, who was recently demoted to the role of “presidential aide”). Gasumyanov himself has had quite the career. In 1982, he worked as a Komsomol district committee instructor in Kyiv, and through the Komsomol recruitment, he was directed to the Higher Courses of the KGB of the USSR. The young intelligence officer was then dispatched to the KGB Office in Ivano-Frankivsk, in western Ukraine, where he was tasked with combating manifestations of nationalism. In 1988, he was transferred to Nagorno-Karabakh, where the first clashes between the local Armenian and Azerbaijani communities had already begun. He rose to the position of deputy head of the KGB Directorate in the region, but when combat operations there escalated, all Lubyanka officers were relieved of their duties and dispersed to various other directorates.

After a period of unknown activities, in 2000 Gasumyanov found himself in the FSB Office in the city of Sochi. Two years later, he moved to the position of State Secretary of the State Reserve, which at the time was led by Alexander Grigoryev — a friend of Putin’s from their youth and a colleague of the future president in the Leningrad KGB. In the 1980s, as part of his official duties as a lieutenant colonel, Grigoryev had worn the cassock of an Orthodox priest and, under the operational guise of “Father Alexander,” directly supervised the Estonian-born Alexey Rigidier, who from 1990-2008 became better known as Alexey II, Patriarch of Moscow and All Rus’.

After the war with Georgia in 2008, the Kremlin decided to strengthen its influence in Transcaucasia. Trusted intelligence personnel were needed. and the “Patrushev man” was appointed Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration's Department for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries, a department staffed largely with former officers from the security services.

The core of the Presidential Administration's Department for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries consists of ex-security officers

At Moscow’s “Old Square” — where the Presidential Administration has its office — the “culturologist” Gasumyanov held oversight responsibilities for Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia. Reports even surfaced in the media suggesting that he had directly intervened in the 2011 presidential elections in South Ossetia, advocating for Moscow's favored candidate, Anatoly Bibilov. Allegedly, Gasumyanov intimidated opponents of Bibilov by promising that they would receive a visit from Jambulat Tedeev, the coach of the Russian national freestyle wrestling team.

Transitioning from the presidential administration, Gasumyanov assumed the role of Chief Security Officer at Norilsk Nickel. In this capacity, the FSB officer made visits to Europe and Africa and proposed the development of a Charter on Information Security for critical industrial facilities, a proposal met with skepticism by many foreign companies.

Concurrently, Gasumyanov chaired the Security Committee at the International Platinum Group Metals Association (IPGMA), affording him access to internal documents of major global companies within the industry. Notably, on the NIIRK website, Gasumyanov shared a photo gallery that included an image of himself alongside former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.

After opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan became Prime Minister of Armenia, the Kremlin once again required the services of the former overseer of Transcaucasia, and NIIRK offered the perfect instrument for Gasumyanov to restore Russia’s influence in the region. “We have always treated our neighboring countries with care, love, and attempted to help them, from promoting independence to providing financial assistance and establishing institutions,” the “Patrushev man” said in February 2023, as Russian rockets and bombs were destroying peaceful cities in Ukraine.

After opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan became Prime Minister of Armenia, the Kremlin once again required the services of the former overseer of Transcaucasia

Spies as supervisors

Alongside Gasumyanov, the Supervisory Board of NIIRK boasts other individuals with extensive intelligence backgrounds. One such figure is FSB General Anatoly Bolyukh, well-known to the Security Service of Ukraine and European counterintelligence agencies. After graduating from the Peoples’ Friendship University in Moscow in 1982, Bolyukh joined the KGB's Foreign Intelligence Service, operating undercover as a diplomat in Soviet embassies. Later, he was seconded to the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), where he served as an assistant to the rector for security matters and played a role in recruiting promising students. After MGIMO, Bolyukh was assigned to the International Academy of Fuel and Energy before finding himself back in Europe — this time with a press pass from the Izvestia newspaper.

In 2009, Bolyukh took charge of the Department of Operational Information (DOI) within the 5th Service of the FSB (Unit 26047), which is responsible for espionage internationally. The DOI's structure includes departments covering Europe, Moldova, Transcaucasia, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Ukraine, where intelligence reports from residencies are consolidated. Additionally, the DOI has achieved success in recruiting European politicians, as was recently reported by The Insider.

The Department of Operational Information has achieved success in recruiting European politicians

During the 2014 Maidan protests in Ukraine, Bolyukh flew to Kyiv with a group of FSB, GRU, and SVR generals in order to aid Viktor Yanukovych. However, by the time they arrived, the situation had already turned in favor of the protesters, and on February 22 of that year, Yanukovych fled the capital, ultimately ending up in Russia. In response to Putin's dissatisfaction with the outcome, Bolyukh was removed from his position and transferred to Rosgeology, an organization historically utilized by the KGB for espionage purposes.

In 2019, there was a change in leadership at Rosgeology, with Sergei Gorkov, a graduate of the FSB Academy, assuming control of the state corporation. Gorkov brought in his own team, prompting Bolyukh’s departure. At NIIRK, the former student recruiter now oversees educational processes and enjoys discussing the concept of good neighborliness: “Tactics are essential here. It is also important to consider the level at which good neighborliness is based — the state, the people, or the elite. So, creativity and unconventional solutions are essential in this matter. Cliches and copying won't suffice.”

The Insider has obtained a list of phone contacts of the current head of the DOI, Lieutenant General Georgy Grishaev. In addition to Grishaev's current colleagues, Bolyukh's phone number is also included in the list. While it could not be determined precisely which topics the generals discuss amongst themselves, it is unlikely that “neighborly relations” is among them.

Boris Miroshnikov, an Honorary Security Service Worker, joined the Supervisory Board alongside Bolyukh. Miroshnikov commenced his service in the Counterintelligence Operations Department (UKRO) of the FSK-FSB, focusing on developing and implementing novel methods for operational and investigative activities. Miroshnikov personally established the Computer and Information Security Directorate within the FSB, now known as the 11th Center (Unit 68240). In 2002, he was assigned to the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), where he assumed leadership of the Bureau of Special Technical Measures (BSTM).

The Bureau, overseen by the FSB, is responsible for tasks such as phone tapping, email hacking, and monitoring electronic payments of criminal suspects. Evgeny Chichvarkin, the founder of mobile phone retailer Euroset, accused Miroshnikov of instigating the round of persecution that led the independent entrepreneur to flee Russia in 2009. In a 2011 video address to Russia’s then-president Dmitry Medvedev, Chichvarkin labeled the BSTM leadership as a “gang of crime bosses” — with Miroshnikov chief among them.

The Bureau, overseen by the FSB, is responsible for tasks such as phone tapping, email hacking, and monitoring electronic payments of criminal suspects

Also in 2011, the “crime boss general” became the vice president of a company called Citadel. Citadel's primary focus lies in developing software for information security and manufacturing SORM (telephone tapping) equipment for law enforcement agencies. Moreover, telecommunications operators in Russia are obligated to install SORM on their networks.

One can only speculate as to what role the wiretapping specialist has in the Korobeinikov Lane headquarters. Whatever activities it is that his official duties require, Miroshnikov’s hobbies appear to include waxing philosophically on the importance of culture: “It's a very delicate matter! It's necessary to cultivate culture in the highest sense of the word, where my life-cultural space wouldn't suppress the same space of my neighbor. It's an extremely challenging task! Any misstep is nationalism transitioning into Nazism-fascism.”

Among the other members of the Supervisory Board, notable figures include former head of the SVR Academy, Nikolay Gribin, and former deputy director of the FSB, Valentin Sobolev. Gribin, who served in the political intelligence department of the KGB's First Main Directorate in the 1980s, worked undercover as a diplomat in Denmark and Norway before transitioning to the KGB-SVR central apparatus. Judging from his speeches, Gribin is concerned about Article 13 of the Russian Constitution, which explicitly states that “ideological diversity is recognized in the Russian Federation,” and “no ideology can be established as state or mandatory.”

Another “supervisor,” General Sobolev, began his career in the Tomsk Directorate of the KGB and rose to the position of the secretary of the Directorate's Communist Party committee. After relocating to Moscow, his career took off. Sobolev has served as the first deputy director of the FSB, and later moved to the Security Council.

Following his retirement in 2012 as a Lieutenant General in the FSB, Sobolev has been a frequent speaker at events targeting young audiences. He has also spent leisure time in the affluent Gorki-2 community in the Odintsovo District, where he owns a mansion valued at around 120 million rubles ($1.32 million).

Propagandists and publishers

NIIRK owns the conference organizing company Project LLC, along with the Eurasia Daily news agency, which employs well-known pro-Kremlin political analysts and conspiracy theorists. The institute publishes three journals: “Man and the World: Dialogue,” “Perspective: Generation of Search,” and “Russia and the World: Scientific Dialogue,” all of which are distributed free of charge in CIS countries. Regular trips abroad, conferences, presentations, and publishing activities incur considerable costs. In 2022, the total assets of NIIRK amounted to 467 million rubles ($5.2 million), even if that figure fell to 273 million in 2023. Of course, “Patrushev's man” can always ask his business partners for financial assistance, and they are unlikely to refuse him. For example, the head of the Pangeo Capital fund, Yuri Kudimov, who manages investments worth $1 billion, is a known associate.

In fact, Kudimov and Gasumyanov are co-founders of Moskovskoe More Management Company LLC (ООО «УК Московское море»), which built an elite cottage settlement in Zavidovo just under 100 miles northwest of the capital. Kudimov also boasts an extensive espionage background: following his graduation from the journalism faculty of Moscow State University, he joined the KGB's First Main Directorate and completed an internship under the direction of Kim Philby, a former MI-6 officer who defected to the USSR in 1963.

Under the guise of a correspondent for Komsomolskaya Pravda, Kudimov conducted espionage activities in London until his expulsion from the country in 1985. Later, holding a Novoye Vremya press card, he operated from a KGB station in Mexico. Upon returning to his homeland, he transitioned into banking as a reserve SVR officer, bringing in a decent income by servicing Soviet debts.

In addition to his activities at Pangeo Capital, Kudimov became one of the founders of the Kim Philby Memorial Fund. European media outlets alleged that Pangeo Capital was involved in providing clandestine financing for “friends of the Kremlin,” but Kudimov successfully contested these claims in court. Nonetheless, last March, Lithuanian authorities revoked his citizenship after the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs determined that the activities of the “former KGB employee” were “incompatible with the national interests of Lithuania.”

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Russia has been bolstering its military presence in Libya for the past few months, according to an investigation. Libya has been mired in civil war since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and Russia has long been accused of meddling in the conflict. Now, the Kremlin appears to be shipping more military equipment to Libya and the surrounding region and redeploying regular troops disguised as mercenaries, along with recruits from Wagner Group’s Africa operations.

The increased military activity in the region may also have something to do with increased pressure for Libya to hold elections. While there have been several attempts to hold elections, plans have often been delayed or disrupted due to escalations in the military conflict. The U.N. has urgently called for elections to be held to prevent the country from sliding further into war.

'Tectonic shifts’

In the past three months, Russia has begun actively transferring military personnel and mercenaries to Libya, according to Verstka’s findings. These forces are primarily concentrated in eastern Libya, a region under the control of Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army and a Kremlin ally. (The western part of the country, including the capital, Tripoli, is governed by the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord.)

A source within a Libyan security agency reported that at least 1,800 Russian military personnel have arrived in the country in the last two weeks alone. Some were dispatched to Niger, while others remain in Libya awaiting further orders.

One serviceman told journalists that he and several hundred other special forces soldiers were redeployed from Ukraine at the beginning of the year. Several thousand more fighters — both professional soldiers and mercenaries from Wagner Group’s Africa operations — arrived in Libya between February and April. In conversations with journalists, the soldiers themselves acknowledged that their presence in Libya is unofficial. They said that they’re there as part of a private military company, though they didn’t specify which one.

Russian military personnel and equipment have been spotted in at least 10 locations in eastern Libya since the beginning of March. Russian troops are stationed around major military bases, such as Al Jufra Air Base and Ghardabiya Air Base, as well as near smaller ones by Waddan and Marj.

Sources say that some of the newly arrived Russian military personnel are involved in training local soldiers and new recruits from private military companies. Others are carrying out combat missions, such as securing the transport of military equipment.

“There’s never been such a fuss; tectonic shifts are happening here,” one Russian soldier in Libya commented. “I think a big mess is brewing.”

Following the breadcrumbs

Location data from Telegram users show an increase in activity around military sites in Libya. On March 5, a Russian soldier with the username “Andrey” showed up near the Ghardabiya Air Base near Sirte. A few months before, “Andrey” was in Mulino — a city in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region where soldiers are being trained for combat in Ukraine. Nearly two weeks after “Andrey” appeared at Ghardabiya Air Base, the Libyan National Army conducted military exercises there.

Soon after, another group of Russian soldiers was spotted in Marj, Libya. On March 17, photos of them were posted on Libyan social media; Verstka and its investigative partners were able to geolocate these photos by comparing the buildings and structures in them with satellite images.

In early May, geolocation data confirmed the presence of two Russian soldiers in Jufra. One of them was the same “Andrey” who’d been at the Ghardabiya Air Base in March. He stayed there until at least April, then moved to Jufra by May.

The second soldier in Jufra was 26-year-old Pavel Vavilov from Russia’s Vladimir region. It’s likely that Vavilov entered the military recently: leaked data shows he worked as a security guard in 2020, and before that, as a taxi driver. He’s faced various legal issues, including a theft conviction. Another Telegram account linked to Vavilov shows a car with a license plate from the self-proclaimed “Luhansk People’s Republic” in the profile picture.

In recent weeks, there’s been a notable increase in shipments of Russian weapons and transport vehicles from Syria to Libya. In photos published on March 30 by the Russian pro-war Telegram channel Military Informant, several Russian Tigr armored personnel carriers can be seen being used in Libyan National Army exercises. Judging by the unit insignia on the front doors, they were delivered to the Libyan National Army’s 106th Brigade.

The channel also released video footage of the exercises. After comparing the terrain, buildings, and landmarks seen in the video to satellite images, Verstka and its investigative partners determined that the footage was shot between Al Jufra Air Base and the town of Waddan.

Russia is shipping a large amount of military equipment to Libya by sea. A source told Verstka that he had personally escorted equipment from a “military port” to various “military bases.” In some cases, the equipment comes to Libya via Syria’s Tartus port. For instance, on April 2, two Russian landing ships — the Alexander Otrakovsky and the Ivan Gren — were spotted in Tartus. On April 6, the same ships were off the coast of Crete, and on April 8, they arrived at the Port of Tobruk in Libya. These vessels were transporting vehicles and weaponry; one item in the shipment resembled a Soviet-era 2S12 “Sani” heavy mortar system. According to open-source investigators, this marked the fifth such shipment in the last six weeks. Satellite imagery shows that since then, the ships have continued to make trips back and forth.

Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, drew attention to the fact that Russian military personnel are being redeployed to the Brak al-Shati base in Libya. According to him, the number of Russian-speaking personnel at the base has increased by about 25 percent in recent weeks.

Back in March 2024, investigators from the All Eyes on Wagner project didn’t find any Russian Telegram accounts at the base. However, the situation has changed in the last few weeks. For example, in early May, an account registered to a Russian number was discovered near the base. The user, 28-year-old Russian Maxim Kukol, doesn’t appear to have been connected to the military before 2021. But there’s no public record of his employment after this. However, by 2022, his debts had been cleared.

Geolocation data also shows a steady stream of Russian military personnel arriving at the Tartus port in Syria, which has become a kind of redistribution hub for military resources. Among them is 19-year-old Navy serviceman Anton Zaikin, who was stationed in Baltiysk, in Russia’s Kaliningrad region, in early 2024. By early May, he had relocated to Syria.

A strategic move

Turkey, the U.S., and other countries have repeatedly accused Russia of interfering in the Libyan conflict, including through the use of Wagner Group mercenaries. Journalistic investigations have confirmed that Russian mercenaries have been present in Libya since at least 2019, and experts say the Kremlin has been supporting Khalifa Haftar since around 2018.

In 2023, Russian officials and Haftar held their first public negotiations since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In August, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov met with him in Libya, and in September, Haftar met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Following this, there were multiple media reports of Kremlin plans to build a Russian naval base in Tobruk, Libya (where Russian military cargo arrives from Syria).

In January 2024, shortly before Russia began sending large numbers of troops to the region, Yevkurov visited Libya again. He met with Haftar in Benghazi; Verstka’s sources say that a new Russian military training base is already operating not far from this city. According to Verstka and All Eyes on Wagner’s sources, the Russian contingent in Libya is controlled by four commanders who were previously in Syria. They, in turn, report to Yevkurov.

"I think the Russians are betting on a war inside Tripoli among the militias, so they’re going to shift gears,” said one military source. Another source suggested that the current influx of Russian equipment and the repositioning of troops are intended to supplant Wagner Group forces in Libya and pave the way for further deployments to other African countries.

RUSI’s Jalel Harchaoui noted that an increased presence in Libya aligns with many of Russia’s strategic regional interests. “Libya offers extremely valuable access to the Mediterranean Sea, acts as a southern flank to exert pressure on NATO and the E.U., and strengthens dialogue with other key Arab countries,” he explained. “Importantly, it also serves as a gateway to Sub-Saharan African countries, offering a strategic route to countries like Sudan, Niger, and beyond.”

According to him, cooperating with the Haftar family allows the Kremlin to achieve these goals while minimizing costs. “Roughly speaking, the Haftar family rewards Moscow materially and financially for doing things that are already in its interest,” Harchaoui believes.

The increased military activity in the region may also have something to do with increased pressure for Libya to hold elections. While there have been several attempts to hold elections, plans have often been delayed or disrupted due to escalations in the military conflict. The U.N. has urgently called for elections to be held to prevent the country from sliding further into war.

Note: There are diagrams I can't post here, it may be worth clicking the link.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have praised the deep ties between their countries, during a meeting in Beijing.

It was their fourth meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

In that time, Beijing has become a vital partner for Moscow, as it seeks to soften the impact of sanctions imposed by the US and other countries.

Is China providing Russia with weapons?

China has repeatedly denied allegations that it supplies Russia with weapons.

In an interview with BBC News, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: "What's not happening is the provision of actual arms by China to Russia for use in Ukraine."

However, China has been accused of building up Moscow's war machine by providing critical components.

Mr Blinken said: "Those are being used to help Russia on what's an extraordinary crash course effort to make more munitions, tanks, armoured vehicles, missiles."

About 70% of the machine tools and 90% of the microelectronics Russia imports come from China, he added.

Sanctions announced by Washington in May targeted about 20 firms based in China and Hong Kong. It said one exported components for drones, while others helped Moscow bypass Western sanctions on other technologies.

China defends its trade with Moscow by saying it is not selling lethal arms and "prudently handles the export of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations".

Beijing exports more than $300m worth of dual-use items - those with both commercial and military applications - to Russia every month, according to an analysis of Chinese customs data by the Carnegie Endowment think tank.

It says the list includes what the US has designated as "high priority" items, which are necessary for making weapons, from drones to tanks.

RUSI, a UK-based think tank has also cautioned about the potential use of Chinese satellite technology for intelligence on Ukraine's front line.

How much has trade between China and Russia increased?

Beijing has become Moscow's key supplier of cars, clothing, raw materials and many other products, after Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia.

Trade between China and Russia reached a record $240bn (£191bn) in 2023, up more than 64% since 2021 - before Russia's invasion of Ukraine - according to official figures from China.

Russian imports from China were $111bn and its exports to China $129bn, the figures show.

At their meeting in Beijing in May, Mr Xi and Mr Putin praised growing trade between the two countries.

They highlighted that the two nations now use their own currencies for 90% of trade, instead of US dollars.

Mr Putin also said he welcomes Chinese carmakers in Russia. This came just days after the US announced a quadrupling of tariffs on China's electric vehicles to 100%.

The export of Chinese cars and parts to Russia reached $23bn in 2023 - up from $6bn the previous year.

"Russian natural gas is fuelling numerous Chinese households, and Chinese-made automobiles are running on Russian roads," said China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi in March.

However, some experts consider this a "lopsided" relationship in which Russia is more dependent on China than vice versa.

As of 2023, China has become Russia's top trade partner, while Russia is China's sixth-largest trade partner.

How much oil and gas does China buy from Russia?

Almost half of all the Russian government's annual revenues come from oil and gas.

Its sales to the US, UK and EU countries have plummeted since the invasion, because of sanctions.

A significant amount of this shortfall has been made up with increased sales to Asia - in particular, China and India.

In 2023, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia to become China's top crude oil supplier. Beijing imported 107 million tonnes of crude oil from Moscow - a 24% increase from 2022.

The G7 group of "advanced" economies, along with the European Union and Australia, has also tried to limit Russia earnings by imposing a worldwide cap on the price of its oil transported by sea.

However, China has continued to buy Russian crude at above the price of the cap.

India, which has continued to maintain its decades-old relationship with Russia, has also been a major buyer of its discounted oil since the invasion.

Russia's share of India's total oil imports hit a record high of 44% in June 2023, according to the Bank of Baroda, an Indian state-controlled lender.

In 2023, China also imported eight million tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Russia, a 77% increase from 2021.

The two countries also plan to expand energy ties, including a new pipeline - called the Power of Siberia 2 - to export natural gas from Russia's western Siberia region to north-eastern China.

China already receives gas from Russia through the original Power of Siberia pipeline, which has been in use since 2019.

Archived link

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s attritional fighting has bombarded Ukrainian schools, hospitals and other vital civilian infrastructure in an attempt to make life unsustainable for remaining civilians.

But Russia has waged an aggressive campaign online as well as off, seeking to exploit and exacerbate divisions and tensions created by the war in Ukraine. While the strategies used are not new, the full-scale invasion saw an intensification of efforts to spread fear, muddy the waters, sow division, and ultimately, undermine support for Ukraine.

More than two years on, as more than two billion people across 50 countries head to polling stations in 2024, democracies around the globe are increasingly vulnerable to Russian influence attempts to polarise public opinion, discredit governments, and cast doubt on democracy itself.

**The information laundering process **

While we’ve heard plenty about the Kremlin’s narratives and disinformation campaigns – and the bot networks and troll farms behind them – we’ve heard less about the specific strategies that are making dis– and misinformation increasingly difficult to detect.

Key to this process is information laundering. Akin to money laundering, information laundering is when propaganda is spread through layers of media to conceal and distance it from its Kremlin origins. Actors use a range of techniques to build credibility and embed laundered information within public discourse, allowing falsehoods at the fringes of the media environment to go global and shape mainstream narratives.

One of the aims is to subtly manipulate information in a way that makes inaccuracies difficult to detect or debunk. In simple terms, clean and dirty information – or fact and fiction – are washed together until the two become indistinguishable, explains Belén Carrasco Rodríguez, director of CIR’s Eyes on Russia project.

“Information laundering is a multi-layered influence process involving the combination and progressive application of a set of influence techniques that seek to distort an event, a claim, or a fact,” explains Rodríguez.

“Instead of just disinformation, this involves a more complex process where facts are mixed up, decontextualised, misappropriated or misconstrued. Once a fact is recycled through a network of accounts or layers of media, it becomes completely distorted, and the original source is obscured."

Laundering information involves the gradual application of techniques such as disinformation, misappropriation, click-bait headlines, and the ‘Woozle effect’ – when fabricated or misleading citations are used repeatedly in laundered news items in an attempt to provide ‘evidence’ of their integrity.

The information is then integrated into and spread around the information ecosystem through processes such as smurfing – a term borrowed from money laundering – where an actor sets up multiple accounts or websites to disseminate the information. There’s also what disinformation analysts call ‘Potemkin villages’, a network of accounts or platforms that share and endorse each other’s content, serving to amplify and propagate material.

The goal of such dissemination techniques is to boost visibility while building credibility – based on the premise that audiences tend to trust information more if it’s widely reported by different actors or organisations.

An international operation

CIR has seen numerous examples of information laundering in different languages and online environments since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, our investigators worked alongside the BBC’s disinformation team to investigate Yala News – a UK-registered, Syrian-linked media company that was found to be spreading Russian state disinformation to millions in the Arabic-speaking world.

The topics and rhythm of Yala’s social media posts revealed traits of information laundering, with many of the posts identical to those seen on Russian state media just a few hours earlier.

Some videos – including one that claims President Zelensky was drunk and 'lost his mind’ – generated over a million views. According to Rodríguez, such content “hits the right audiences”, allowing outlets such as Yala to not only disseminate pro-Russian, anti-western messages but to drive their readership at the same time.

In another case, in February 2023, CIR saw a fake UK government letter circulated online and addressed to UK sponsors of Ukrainian refugees. The letter asked for the personal details of Ukrainian men living in the households, information that had allegedly been demanded by the Ukrainian Embassy in London for reasons unspecified.

It was an operation that Rodríguez describes as hybrid, combining a forgery with an information laundering operation that was designed to stoke fear among the Ukrainian refugee community while portraying the Ukrainian armed forces as desperate and running out of manpower – and prepared to go to cruel lengths to obtain recruits.

Such narratives were embedded into social media groups in countries supporting the Ukrainian war effort, like Lithuania and Latvia, with posts suggesting authorities were collecting information on Ukrainian men so they could be deported for conscription.

“They used that forgery as an initial entry point to a further influence campaign involving information laundering,” explains Rodríguez, adding that the letter was swiftly shared online alongside stories from individuals who had supposedly received it, or knew someone who had. These narratives were an attempt to add legitimacy to the claims, she says.

“This is how laundering works – online and offline networks mobilise to spread a piece of disinformation, in this case, a forgery.”

Sowing division, casting doubt

Like large-scale money laundering operations, it is the transfer of narratives into other countries’ political environments that helps to strengthen their credibility while serving the purpose of the launderer – making the strategy especially dangerous in the so-called year of elections.

Rodríguez says what is particularly concerning is Russia’s ability to embed its influence networks in different communities and launder information by “speaking the domestic language and understanding the domestic grievances.”

Recent CIR analysis shared with Bloomberg revealed how X (formerly Twitter) accounts being used to promote Russian interests in South Africa are attempting to rally support for a new party backed by former President Jacob Zuma. Investigators identified several accounts that praised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and drew parallels between Zuma’s leadership and Putin’s. One such account has around 170,000 followers and regularly interacts with other users to amplify its reach – at times generating over 1 million impressions per post.

Ahead of elections in the U.S. and Europe, military aid to Ukraine has been a key topic for debate, and American officials have expressed concern that Russia will increase support for candidates opposing Ukrainian aid.

Recent reporting by the New York Times details Russia’s intensified efforts to amplify arguments for isolationism, with the ultimate aim of derailing military funding for Ukraine. While the initial arguments against additional aid may be organic, it is the amplification that is being “engineered” by Russia through the replication and distortion of legitimate news sites – a clear example of the information laundering described by Rodríguez.

Another key Russian tactic to destabilise support for Ukraine is through attacks designed to discredit and undermine the country’s political figures. The Washington Post recently uncovered a Kremlin disinformation campaign designed to push the theme that Zelensky “is hysterical and weak”, and to “strengthen the conflict” between Zelensky and Zaluzhny – the top military commander he dismissed in early February.

One senior European security official commenting on the campaign told The Washington Post: “Russia survived and they are preparing a new campaign which consists of three main directions: first, pressure on the front line; second, attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure; and thirdly, this destabilization campaign.”

Fragmented societies and social media bubbles

But as democracies around the world prepare to open their polling booths, U.S. officials have also warned that Russia may be attempting to move beyond targeting individuals, instead sowing seeds of doubt over the future of democracy itself.

A U.S. review of elections between 2020 and 2022 identified 11 contests in nine countries where Russia attempted to undermine confidence in election outcomes. More subtle campaigns – which attempted to cast doubt and amplify domestic questions about the reliability of elections – were identified in a further 17 democracies.

While content moderation by Silicon Valley companies has been strengthened in the wake of the 2016 U.S. elections, research has repeatedly raised the issue of comparatively inconsistent and weak moderation of non-English language content, leaving hundreds of millions of voters particularly vulnerable to campaigns and strategies that Russia has expertly refined.

Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen previously warned that 87% of Facebook’s spending on combating misinformation was spent on English content, despite only 9% of users being English speakers – a disturbing finding for non-English speaking voters as they head to the polls. Meanwhile, after Elon Musk’s controversial takeover of X, disinformation and hate speech reportedly surged.

Research indicates that public trust in government, the media and democracy is waning, while conspiracy theories have flourished in recent years, particularly in the wake of the pandemic, a trend noted by Rodríguez:

“Societies are suffering a post-covid effect, we’re still extremely divided, and audiences are being held in social media bubbles. It’s very easy to disseminate false narratives and amplify them online, shaping cognitive processes and impacting public perceptions.”

Coupled with weak or understaffed content moderation from social media companies, this fragmentation provides fertile ground for influence operations to thrive, Rodríguez warns.

“The recent changes in social media platforms like Twitter favour this trend. It is a very volatile environment in an electoral year.”

Alternative link

After our research on which websites are spreading pro-Russian narratives and talking points that benefit Moscow, we decided to take a closer look at websites in German. During the analysis, we found publications that quote Russian state media, that receive back quotes from them, and that spread claims that could play into the hands of the Kremlin.

During the content analysis, we found that there are several key areas among pro-Russian narratives in Europe in general and in Germany in particular. Let’s highlight a few of them and provide examples below.

• ‘The West and NATO are to blame for the war in Ukraine.’
• ‘Ukraine is a proxy state for the West.’
• ‘Ukraine and the West are losing; Russia is winning.’
• ‘Russia is fighting NATO forces in Ukraine.’
• ‘The French and other NATO troops are already present in Ukraine.’
• ‘Nuclear threats from Russia.’
• ‘The inexpediency of Western support for Ukraine.’
• ‘The West is declining and losing influence in the world.’
• ‘Favorable coverage for right-wing radical parties in light of the elections.’
• ‘Fake news about the Ukrainian government sending children to the frontlines, as well as pregnant women being sent to the trenches.’

'Shifting the blame for the war to the West’

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russian propaganda machine has been blaming Ukraine, Western countries, NATO, and the EU for the war. Moscow claims that it felt threatened by Ukraine, that it came to protect the people of Donbas, and that NATO’s eastward expansion is to blame. This way, Russia is trying to justify its invasion and shift the blame for the war to the West.

“The attacks on eastern Ukraine, which began in 2014, i.e. after the Maidan coup, were carried out from Kiev. Russia has repeatedly (since 2014) pushed for a peaceful solution for eastern Ukraine. Putin demanded, bead and argued. But he was ignored until February 2022.” (https://apolut.net/die-auswanderhilfe-moya-rossiya-von-tom-j-wellbrock/)

“In 2014, the regime in Kiev started a war against Donbass… The West is arming Ukraine and pushing the Ukrainian dictator to launch a new campaign against the Donbass. The Russian army intervenes in 2022.”(https://weltnetz.tv/story/2982-russische-praesidentschaftswahl-2024-fehlkalkulation-des-westens)

“It turns the war into a big hybrid conflict between East and West, which spreads hatred, destruction and misery.”(https://zeitpunkt.ch/der-bisher-beste-text-zum-verstaendnis-des-ukraine-konflikts)

The now outbreak Ukraine war is above all a long-prepared proxy war between the USA and Russia for geopolitical interests, with the Ukrainians on the battlefield. Because the USA and the West have been pursuing the declared goal of including Ukraine in NATO since the NATO Summit in 2008 at the latest. (https://www.telepolis.de/features/Ukraine-Krieg-Warum-wir-den-Aufstand-fuer-den-Frieden-brauchen-7533383.html)

'Ukraine and its allies have lost’

According to all of the propaganda bases, the Kremlin media are convinced that Russian troops have suffered almost no losses, while the Ukrainian army is suffering high casualties. The Kremlin media presents any Russian advance, even the capture of a village at the cost of several hundred soldiers, as a great achievement. Instead, the Russians downplay their own losses. The goal is to instill fear and force concessions to Putin’s demands.

“With each day of the Ukraine war, the chance of an independent future of the country becomes smaller.”(https://apolut.net/deutschland-und-die-ukraine/)

“Ukraine is also only helped in the short term. Because the money and the weapons are not enough in the back and front.”(https://lostineu.eu/ukraine-israel-taiwan-die-usa-giessen-oel-ins-feuer/)

“The bet on the effectiveness of NATO weapons, as time has shown, did not work, the praised leopards and Bradleys and other Western equipment burn, and very well.”(https://www.extremnews.com/nachrichten/weltgeschehen/e24c1930524c298)

“Ukraine has already lost militarily.” (https://www.freiewelt.net/nachricht/ex-general-kujat-frage-der-zeit-bis-die-ukraine-militaerisch-vollends-unterliegt-10096537/)

“Either the escalation of the Ukraine war to a great European war with world war potential or a great loss of face and power of the West, especially the superpower USA based on the dollar dominance.”(https://www.pi-news.net/2024/05/grosser-krieg-oder-grosser-machtverlust/)

“The benefit of the Leopard tanks, which were handed over to Kiev from the West, is currently “zero” while Russian equipment for electronic warfare successfully fights Western drones, according to experts.” (https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2024/nutzlose-leoparden-und-keine-zusaetzlichen-patriots-die-ereignisse-des-22-april/)

“Terrible losses:Bodies of Ukrainian soldiers are disposed of on the battlefield, morgues are not allowed to provide information.” (https://uncutnews.ch/schreckliche-verluste-leichen-ukrainischer-soldaten-werden-auf-dem-schlachtfeld-entsorgt-leichenhallen-duerfen-keine-auskunft-geben/)

“In Ukraine, the sale of the two-legged human material is currently underway. There, the decision-makers may have put many billions in their pockets and until the last Ukrainian is burned, this profitable business model is also to be maintained.” (https://qpress.de/2024/04/29/ukraine-demokratie-frieden-menschenrechte-weg/)

“In addition, there is the possibility that a Ukrainian army, which is exhausted and bled out by years of failed offensives, will eventually fall victim to a Russian counterattack, which would lead to far greater territorial losses than Ukraine has suffered so far. The French ex-president offers a diplomatic way out. The commentators react with “pro-Putin” insults. What’s behind the witch hunt.”(https://www.telepolis.de/features/Sarkozy-verunglimpft-weil-er-unbequeme-Wahrheit-ueber-die-Ukraine-ausspricht-9293539.html)

‘“Nazis” in Ukraine’

The Kremlin media used traditional ‘Nazi’ disinformation to discredit all Ukrainians and justify the war. In this way, Russian and pro-Russian propaganda also diverts attention from the fact that it was the Putin regime that started the aggressive and neocolonial war against a sovereign state, in violation of international law.

“While in Germany it claims to take action against people allegedly close to the Nazis, it supports a real Nazi regime in Kiev with billions.”(https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2024/deutschland-laedt-vertreter-russlands-von-gedenkfeiern-zur-befreiung-von-konzentrationslagern-aus/?doing_wp_cron=1713875058.6111850738525390625000)

“One could actually be grateful to the Tagesschau for providing the public proof of the Nazi background of the Ukrainian regime.” (https://apolut.net/ukraine-soldaten-als-deutsche/)

“It also conveys why Putin is now resolutely fighting against Nazis in Ukraine and sets legitimate conditions for the government.” (https://de.sott.net/article/35437-Dokumentation-Ukraine-on-Fire-Hintergrunde-zur-Farbrevolution-in-der-Ukraine-2013)

“Zelensky is a Nazi in sweatpants”(https://www.freiewelt.net/nachricht/selenskij-ist-ein-nazi-in-jogginghose-10094886/)

“The Nazi regime in Kiev, supported by NATO and the EU, is the structure that threatens to trigger a new world war in Europe that would lead to a global wildfire.” (https://uncutnews.ch/europaeisches-parlament-verleumdet-russland-und-finanziert-nazi-terrorismus/)

"My narrative was not consistent with the narrative of NATO, and maybe that was a problem. The narrative of NATO tries to make us believe that there has never been a conflict between Ukrainian citizens around the Maidan in Ukraine, but that everything is only an invention of Russia. In my opinion and based on the events I have observed on the ground since 2014, it is just as true that Russia invaded and bombed in a criminal way as the fact that the Maidan was a nationalist coup, while on the other side of the trenches there were fighters and families from Ukraine who are set against Kiev. I know it’s extremely unpopular to say that today, but I’m a journalist and not a PR man.”(https://www.telepolis.de/features/Wie-die-Taz-einen-Artikel-eines-Ukraine-Kriegsreporters-manipulierte-9186628.html)

‘Russia is fighting NATO forces in Ukraine’

After Russian propaganda promised to capture Kyiv in two days and then two weeks, Moscow is looking for excuses for the failure of its so-called “special operation.” The simplest excuse is that almost the entire world is fighting against Russia. However, in reality, only the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which use modern Western weapons provided by the allies, are confronting the Russian invaders. Only foreign volunteers who joined the Ukrainian Army are on the ground, not any official forces. By faking the presence of French troops in Ukraine, the Kremlin creates a pretext for itself to resort to threats.

“Together with a representative of the arms producer Diehl (anti-aircraft system IRIS-T), Habeck had announced during his visit to Kiev that Ukraine had to win the NATO war against Russia.”(https://apolut.net/zwerge-erklaeren-russland-den-krieg/)

“But at the same time, it legitimizes the regime as a partner of Germany and supports those tendencies in the Federal Republic that would like to participate in a NATO war.”(https://apolut.net/ukraine-soldaten-als-deutsche/)

“The expansion of NATO activities near the Russian borders makes neutrality even more unclear and increases the immediate risk of direct confrontation.”(https://aktuelle-nachrichten.app/wir-befinden-uns-bereits-im-dritten-weltkrieg/)

"Not only French mercenaries are said to have already fallen on the front. President Macron is preparing an invasion of French ground troops into Ukraine. A tremendous escalation that can affect the entire continent.”(https://www.compact-online.de/macron-bereitet-invasion-in-der-ukraine-vor/)

“RT DE reports: We believe that NATO is openly involved in the violent confrontation in Ukraine with Russia” (https://www.extremnews.com/nachrichten/weltgeschehen/8747193012f2963)

“France sends foreign Legionnaires to Ukraine.” (https://www.freiewelt.net/nachricht/frankreich-schickt-fremdenlegionaere-in-die-ukraine-10096541/)

“France has sent the first combat troops to the Ukrainian front.” (https://anti-spiegel.ru/2024/frankreich-hat-erste-kampftruppen-an-die-ukrainische-front-geschickt/)

“Extraining Ukrainian students for the war and NATO soldiers in Ukraine.” (https://aktuelle-nachrichten.app/ukrainische-schueler-fuer-den-krieg-ausbilden-und-nato-soldaten-in-der-ukraine-die-ereignisse-des-wochenendes/)

“When I asked him to explain whether he wanted to indicate that Russia is fighting more humanely in Ukraine than the USA in Iraq, Chomsky replied: “I do not suggest it, it is obvious.”” (https://www.telepolis.de/features/Noam-Chomsky-Russlands-Krieg-in-Ukraine-humaner-als-US-Invasion-in-Irak-8983892.html)

'Nuclear threats and nuclear blackmail’

When the Russian Federation realizes that the democratic, civilized world supports Ukraine and its adherence to international law, the last argument is the threat of nuclear weapons. Russian officials speak out, and pro-Russian media instill fear in Europe.

“The Russian military will take countermeasures when the US nuclear weapons are transferred to Poland, explained the spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov.” (https://de.sott.net/article/36005-US-Atomwaffen-in-Polen-Moskau-stellt-Gegenmanahmen-in-Aussicht)

“In response to French war threats, Kremlin chief Putin has ordered the use of tactical nuclear weapons to be practiced.” (https://lostineu.eu/putin-ordnet-manoever-mit-atomwaffen-an-eiszeit-mit-deutschland/)

“Russia speaks, among other things, of the danger of a “direct military clash between nuclear powers” and cites the recent provocative statements of Western politicians as the reason for a maneuver by the Russian tactical nuclear forces.”(https://anti-spiegel.ru/2024/russland-warnt-vor-direkter-militaerischer-konfrontation-mit-der-nato/)

“Medvedev: This will be a global disaster – Biden and Macron need war before the European elections on the 9th.” (https://www.pravda-tv.com/2024/05/medwedew-das-wird-eine-globale-katastrophe-biden-und-macron-brauchen-krieg-vor-den-europawahlen-am-9-juni-videos/)

“Nuclear war is possible. World peace depends on the tact of the United States, which is being blackmailed by the Ukrainian “integral nationalists” and the Israeli “revisionist Zionists”.” (https://www.pravda-tv.com/2024/05/ist-die-moeglichkeit-eines-weltkrieges-real/)

'Supporting Ukraine makes no sense’

Pro-Russian media convinces us that we should stop supporting Ukraine and abandon sanctions against Russia as a goal of all narratives. This is the main goal of the Putin regime: to make Ukraine defenseless against the offensive of the Russian invading forces.

“Cheap energy from Russia would be needed to mitigate the economic crisis. This realization now needs “supervised excuses.””(https://overton-magazin.de/hintergrund/politik/vom-albtraum-der-faeser-demokratie/)

“If Germany continues to present itself as a spearhead against Russia, we are threatened with demise. The only thing that can save us is neutrality.”(https://www.compact-online.de/scholz-neues-milliarden-paket-fuer-ukraine/)

“Without a strategy to end the war, the new US aid package will only bring us back to our starting point in a few months.”(https://overton-magazin.de/hintergrund/politik/vorsicht-vor-russischem-gas/)

“Der Spiegel has published an article with the headline “Expensive energy, inflation, trade conflicts – Russia’s war of aggression costs Germany 160 billion euros”, which is once again pure propaganda, because Der Spiegel blames Russia for the policy of the federal government.” (https://aktuelle-nachrichten.app/die-anti-russische-politik-kosten-die-deutschen-jaehrlich-2-600-euro-pro-kopf/)

“However, Spiegel readers do not learn that 80 percent of “Ukraine aid” does not go to Ukraine at all, but directly to the US arms industry.” (https://aktuelle-nachrichten.app/die-us-ukraine-hilfe-bleibt-in-wirklichkeit-zu-80-prozent-in-den-usa/)

“Germany is costing its suicidal Russia policy a lot. Citizens are expected to explode electricity and gasoline because the traffic light government wants to get away from Russian energy supplies.”(https://zuerst.de/2022/06/17/kostspieliger-oel-umweg-ueber-indien-warum-billig-wenn-es-auch-teuer-geht/)

“Otto Schily warns of war mood and Ukraine hype: “We have to get along with the Russians”” (https://zuerst.de/2022/07/24/otto-schily-warnt-vor-kriegsstimmung-und-ukraine-hype-wir-muessen-mit-den-russen-klarkommen/)

“Ukraine war costs the German economy 200 billion euros.” (https://zuerst.de/2022/09/20/chef-des-instituts-der-deutschen-wirtschaft-ukraine-krieg-kostet-die-deutsche-wirtschaft-200-milliarden-euro/)

“The majority of Europeans want peace, even at the expense of Ukraine.” (https://zeitpunkt.ch/index.php/die-mehrheit-der-europaeer-will-frieden-selbst-auf-kosten-der-ukraine)

“How the USA cracked Europe with the Ukraine war and China’s rise. Europe suffers and joins in. Germany is the main loser of the US collision with Russia and China. Western Europe, especially Germany, is the big loser. Cheap Russian energy has been replaced by expensive ones from the USA. This has undermined the competitiveness of the German manufacturing industry and contributed to even higher European inflation. Europe has also lost Russia’s huge market, where it sold industrial goods. In addition, it has lost the wasteful expenses of the Russian elite. Threat from Russia a mirage. Above all, however, the assertion of a Russian threat to Europe is not valid. This weakness indeed speaks for the legitimacy of the Russian need for a demilitarized Ukraine as a protective buffer.” (https://www.telepolis.de/features/Wie-die-USA-mit-Ukraine-Krieg-und-Chinas-Aufstieg-Europa-knackten-9631903.html)

We have prepared a table with links between all the sites that spread pro-Russian narratives or claims that benefit Moscow. These include Russian state media, news websites supporting far-right political forces, and some other sites. Using web analytics tools, we mapped all the links from each site to all the citations between the sites on the list, which you can see filtered in the table below. [This table only visible on tbe website.]

It is clear that Russia is waging a war of propaganda and disinformation against Europe, whereas it is waging a real war against Ukraine, seizing its territories. An analysis of key Kremlin media narratives in different languages reveals that their campaign’s main goal is to force the West to stop supporting Ukraine and make concessions to Putin, probably by giving him the occupied territories and thus recognizing the redrawing of borders in Europe by military means.

News websites that tend to support pro-Russian, Euroskeptic, and anti-American views, as well as those close to the positions of right-wing radical parties, often pick up such narratives. Consciously or unconsciously, such web resources play into the hands of the Kremlin’s agenda. Such news reports are becoming a tool for spreading Russian and pro-Russian influence in Europe.

Archived link

During the two-plus years of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has imported at least 169 Austrian-made Steyr Mannlicher rifles and pistols. These weapons are actively being used by the Russian military in the war. The Insider has discovered that 11 sniper rifles were delivered to Russian companies as recently as February 2024.

Russian snipers’ Austrian rifles

Since February 2024, The Insider has published several investigations into the smuggling of European and U.S.-manufactured small arms into Russia. Russian importers have received more than 15,000 units of weapons over the course of their country’s full-scale invasion. The firearms range from pistols and hunting rifles to sniper rifles. And while imported pistols and carbines are not so common at the front lines, Austrian Steyr Mannlicher rifles remain popular with snipers in both the Russian army and security forces.

Steyr Mannlicher rifles are used by snipers of the Federal Protective Service (FSO), which is charged with guarding Vladimir Putin's security. They are also used by Russian mercenaries in Syria and Libya, and Russian naval infantry units fighting in Ukraine. The Insider was able to confirm, through public records, that Austrian rifles are used by snipers in at least five different brigades in official Russian army units:

• 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet
• 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade, which stormed Hostomel Airport near Kyiv in February 2022
• 14th Separate Special Forces Brigade of the GRU Spetsnaz
• 3rd Guards Separate Brigade of the GRU Spetsnaz -37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade

The Austrian rifles are also used by:

• The Wagner Group's “Derivation” Company in Ukraine
• Wagner Group snipers in Libya and Syria
• The Federal Protective Service (FSO), which deploys snipers on the walls of the Kremlin

The most recent publication about the use of Steyr Mannlicher SSG rifles by Russian forces found by The Insider in open sources is dated April 30, 2024. Steyr Mannlicher’s Russian affiliates

In June 2014, in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the European Union imposed export restrictions on arms deliveries. At the time, discussions were underway about the possibility of Steyr Mannlicher producing weapons in Russia under an Austrian license. This potential project was closed, but the supply of finished rifles did not stop. A company affiliated with the Austrian factory served as the Russian recipient of Steyr Mannlicher rifles.

The largest importer of these rifles is Arsenal Weapons Salon LLC (ООО Оружейный Салон «Арсенал»). According to customs data, this company received Steyr Mannlicher rifles directly from the manufacturer until 2018 and imported 19,838 kg of products while cooperation persisted. The company is owned by three entrepreneurs: Alexander Seleznev and Vladimir Cherevichny each own 30% of the company's capital, while Dmitry Startsev owns 40%. The latter was the CEO and co-owner of another Russian company, Steyr Mannlicher LLC (ООО «Штрайр Маннлихер»). The company was established in September 2010, liquidated in March 2014 and had an insignificant turnover. It should be noted that the second co-founder of this company, which owned 75% of the share capital, was Steyr Mannlicher Holding GmbH (Austria).

Although the formal ties between Steyr Mannlicher and Startsev were severed, in February 2024, Arsenal Weapons Salon LLC, owned by the Russian businessman, received a new batch of 11 Steyr Mannlicher rifles in the .338 Lapua Magnum caliber. As of May 14, Arsenal's website indicated the availability of more than 20 different Mannlicher models, ranging from hunting rifles to sniper rifles.

Two other companies that import weapons from the Austrian manufacturer are Hunter-Ru LLC (ООО «Хантер-Ру») and Test-Oruzhie LLC (ООО «Тест-Оружие»). The owner of Hunter-Ru is entrepreneur Vladimir Shchigorets. In March 2022, the company imported 20 Steyr Mannlicher SSG 08 rifles in .338 LM caliber. According to customs records, the logistics intermediary was the Cyprus-based Philippos Constantinieds Trading Co Ltd, which UK authorities suspect of supplying arms to North Korea. Test-Oruzhie is linked to Beretta Holding's Russian partner, arms baron Mikhail Khubutia. In July 2023, the firm delivered 65 Steyr A2 MF pistols in the 9mm caliber to Russia.

Steyr Mannlicher’s business history in Russia

The first evidence of the use of Austrian weapons by the Russian military dates back to 2011. At that time, Russia’s Airborne Forces reconnaissance units received close to two dozen Mannlicher rifles.

The Russian army’s purchase of modern sniper rifles was long overdue. The most widely used sniper rifle in service with the Ministry of Defense, the SVD, was developed in 1957-1963. Its effective range is 600-700 meters, which is less than half that of modern .338 Lapua Magnum (1,750 meters) and .375 CheyTac rifles (2,286 meters).

Russian attempts to create a large caliber sniper rifle capable of operating at ranges beyond the reach of normal calibers led to the development of the ASVK (Army Large Caliber Sniper Rifle) in 2004. The project was not a success. Russia managed to create a heavy weapon — at 12.5 kg, the ASVK weighs more than twice as much as its European counterparts — but not an accurate one.

Russian Defense Ministry officers quoted on the social network “gunsforum” by former special forces and military blogger Alexander Arutyunov, known as Razvedos, are critical of the rifle's long-range accuracy, noting that “at 1,000 meters you can only hit a barn.”

Given their experience with the ASVK, Russian snipers were more than satisfied with the accuracy and compactness of the Austrian rifles, and their manufacturer was attracted by the opportunity to sell the weapon to one of the largest armies in Europe. Two years after the first deliveries were made, the head of Rostec State Corporation Sergey Chemezov and the chairman of the Russian-Austrian Business Council Vladimir Artyakov discussed the “development of military-technical cooperation” with the president of the Austrian Federal Chamber of Economy Christoph Leitl. In September 2013, Rostec and Steyr Mannlicher signed an agreement to produce small arms in Izhevsk. But due to the annexation of Crimea, this project was never realized. Still, deliveries of finished rifles did not stop — neither during the period of hybrid war in eastern Ukraine from 2014-2022 nor after the start of the full-scale invasion.

Lack of sanctions control

Since November 2023, it has been known that large-scale shipments of European small arms including Austrian Steyr Mannlicher and Glock rifles were still making their way to Russia. An investigation on this topic by the German publication Correctiv was covered by dozens of other publications. A series of articles on the smuggling of European weapons followed, naming specific participants in the supply chain. Finland's Helsingin Sanomat, Czechia’s Investigace, Italy's IrpiMedia, and The Insider all wrote about the issue.

So far, European authorities have reacted to these publications only once: in Germany, the public prosecutor's office in Ravensburg opened a preliminary investigation against the German rifle manufacturer Blaser. Such inaction raises serious questions. While it can be difficult to find intermediaries involved in the supply of microprocessors and semiconductors to Russia, there is no such problem in the case of weapons: the European Union's regulatory authorities have reliable information on the serial numbers of the barrels of most rifles and pistols that have ended up in Russia since February 2024.

Following the publication of The Insider's previous investigations into the smuggling of European small arms into Russia, Russia’s Federal Accreditation Service (Rosakkreditatsia) stopped publishing new certificates and declarations of conformity for a number of product groups.

Archived link

China had previously conducted a feasibility study for the Dawei port but redirected its focus to the Kyakphyu deep seaport near the India-built Sittwe port.

Myanmar has recently chosen Russia for the construction of the Dawei deep seaport, a decision that has raised tensions with China, which had also shown interest in developing the port.

The port is located in the country's east coast bordering Thailand. The project was initiated in 2008 as a jointly owned bilateral economic cooperation project between the governments of Thailand and Myanmar.

Discussions between Myanmar and Russia regarding the Dawei port project are currently underway as the Myanmar looks to strengthen its relationship with Moscow in order to counterbalance Chinese influence.

Proposed plans for the project entail the construction of a port with a capacity of 10 million tonnes and an oil refinery capable of processing 100,000 barrels per day. However, China is apprehensive that Russia's involvement in Myanmar's port sector may undermine its own projects in Kyaukphyu and potentially disrupt global trade dynamics in the region.

Seeking to bolster its ties with Moscow, Myanmar's Junta is actively pursuing Russian investment not only for the port project but also for a special economic zone that includes an oil refinery.

China had previously conducted a feasibility study for the Dawei port but redirected its focus to the Kyakphyu deep seaport near the India-built Sittwe port. Myanmar's pivot towards Russia has reportedly incensed China, with experts suggesting that Beijing feels sidelined by Russia's participation in the Dawei project.

Strategic importance of Dawei Port

The proposed Dawei port, located in the Tanintharyi region on Myanmar's east coast along the Andaman Sea, holds significant strategic importance. Serving as the gateway to the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) countries, it has the potential to become a crucial port for Thailand's containerised trade due to its proximity to Bangkok.

After completion, Dawei will become one of Southeast Asia’s important ports. It will link countries in the Indian Ocean, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa, without the need to pass through the Malacca Strait. It will have the capacity to handle over 100 metric tons of cargo annually.

Growing Myanmar-Russia cooperation

Russia's involvement in Myanmar goes beyond economic and defence cooperation. It extends to military training and equipment supply, with agreements worth millions signed between the two countries. Russia has offered assistance in sniper and drone training and is considering providing Small Modular Reactors to Myanmar, reports Economic Times.

Additionally, Russian cooperation with Myanmar in nuclear technology has led to the opening of a Nuclear Technology Information Centre in Yangon.

Implications for India

India may view Myanmar's closer relationship with Russia favourably, especially considering China's extensive involvement in Myanmar's infrastructure and energy projects.

The increasing partnership between Myanmar and Russia aligns with India's interests in maintaining stability in the Bay of Bengal region, where India has historically played a security role.

Zhang Zhan, 40, a lawyer turned citizen journalist, was detained in May 2020 after she travelled to Wuhan to report on the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Her videos and social media posts drew attention to the government’s stifling of information about the spread of the disease and the harsh lockdowns that were being imposed.

In December 2020, Zhang was convicted of “picking quarrels and provoking trouble” and sentenced to four years in prison. Her conviction was widely criticised by human rights organisations.

Reporters Without Borders awarded Zhang a 2021 press freedom award for courage for “her reporting from the heart of the pandemic’s initial epicentre” which “was one of the main sources of independent information about the health situation in Wuhan at the time”.

She had been imprisoned in Shanghai women’s prison and was due to be released on Monday. But it is not clear if, or under what circumstances, she has been let out. There were reports in recent weeks that her family and friends were under intense pressure from the authorities not to contact foreign media or overseas supporters about her case.

Calls to Shanghai women’s prison on Tuesday and Wednesday did not connect.

Aleksandra Bielakowska, an advocacy officer for Reporters Without Borders in Taiwan, said Zhang’s family had had limited contact with activists in recent weeks and that the organisation had received “no information” about Zhang since Monday. “We don’t know if they have been threatened, if they are under surveillance or if they’ve been taken away,” she said.

There are concerns that Zhang may have been released into limited freedom, with restrictions on her movement and communications. One of her former lawyers told the Guardian that Zhang might have been “taken away for vacation”, a euphemism for when the police in China force a person deemed troublesome to go on a chaperoned trip to keep them under surveillance. “Everyone is paying attention and trying to find out what’s going on, but there’s no news,” the lawyer said.

Maya Wang, the associate director in the Asia division at Human Rights Watch, said: “At the moment we have not had confirmation about Zhang Zhan’s release, which is especially concerning given her very poor health in prison.”

Zhang engaged in periodic hunger strikes while in prison, causing her to lose several stone in weight, and is thought to have been subjected to force-feeding. At one point she was admitted to hospital due to severe malnutrition, according to Amnesty International.

Wang said: “We fear that, upon release, Zhang will remain under tight police surveillance and restrictions on her movement, as has been the case for too many activists. It is important that the world does not forget brave activists like Zhang, and demand that she be freed without restrictions.”

Wang Wenbin, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, reportedly declined to comment about Zhang’s case on Monday.

Bielakowska said: “The fact that there is silence is a message itself.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing Wednesday for two days of meetings with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Putin's second trip to China in six months will focus on military and financial assistance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing on Thursday for his first trip abroad since his reelection.

The two-day trip is the Russian leader's second to China in six months.

Increasingly isolated internationally more than two years after launching a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine, Putin is searching for military and financial support from his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, to sustain his effort in the face of growing global sanctions and a war that his troops have been unable to win despite advantages in arms and numbers.

Putin was welcomed by Chinese officials as well as a military honor guard when he touched down.

Both Russian and Chinese state media covered the arrival.

Putin praised Xi for helping to build a "strategic partnership" with Russia.

"It was the unprecedentedly high level of the strategic partnership between our countries that determined my choice of China as the first state that I would visit after taking office as president," Putin told China's Xinhua news agency.

'No limits' relationship

The two neighbors described their relationship as having "no limits" during a meeting in 2022 when the rest of the world decried Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.

Beijing has benefitted from supporting Moscow by receiving cheap gas and oil. Still, China has increasingly come under pressure from Western nations with its banks facing the threat of US sanctions that could interrupt Chinese access to international financial markets.

Prior to the trip, the Kremlin said Putin and Xi would "define key areas of development in Russian-Chinese cooperation, and exchange views on international and regional issues" during discussions on the "comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation" between their nations.

In meetings between Xi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken last month, the US diplomat warned Beijing over its support of Putin's "brutal war of aggression in Ukraine."

Ahead of Putin's trip, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov summed up the partnership between the two authoritarian nations, saying that Moscow and Beijing were "objectively interested in maintaining our lead in efforts to establish a more fair and democratic world order."

Both leaders recently changed their respective nations' constitutions to maintain power for life and are accused of using their nations' military heft to intimidate their neighbors.

"I don't want anyone to think that I ever said these horrible things in my life. Using a Ukrainian girl for a face promoting Russia. It's crazy.”

Olga Loiek has seen her face appear in various videos on Chinese social media - a result of easy-to-use generative AI tools available online.

“I could see my face and hear my voice. But it was all very creepy, because I saw myself saying things that I never said,” says the 21-year-old, a student at the University of Pennsylvania.

The accounts featuring her likeness had dozens of different names like Sofia, Natasha, April, and Stacy. These “girls” were speaking in Mandarin - a language Olga had never learned. They were apparently from Russia, and talked about China-Russia friendship or advertised Russian products.

“I saw like 90% of the videos were talking about China and Russia, China-Russia friendship, that we have to be strong allies, as well as advertisements for food.”

One of the biggest accounts was “Natasha imported food” with a following of more than 300,000 users. “Natasha” would say things like “Russia is the best country. It’s sad that other countries are turning away from Russia, and Russian women want to come to China”, before starting to promote products like Russian candies.

This personally enraged Olga, whose family is still in Ukraine.

But on a wider level, her case has drawn attention to the dangers of a technology that is developing so quickly that regulating it and protecting people has become a real challenge.

From YouTube to Xiaohongshu

Olga’s Mandarin-speaking AI lookalikes began emerging in 2023 - soon after she started a YouTube channel which is not very regularly updated.

About a month later, she started getting messages from people who claimed they saw her speak in Mandarin on Chinese social media platforms.

Intrigued, she started looking for herself, and found AI likenesses of her on Xiaohongshu - a platform like Instagram - and Bilibili, which is a video site similar to YouTube.

“There were a lot of them [accounts]. Some had things like Russian flags in the bio,” said Olga who has found about 35 accounts using her likeness so far.

After her fiancé tweeted about these accounts, HeyGen, a firm that she claims developed the tool used to create the AI likenesses, responded.

They revealed more than 4,900 videos have been generated using her face. They said they had blocked her image from being used anymore.

A company spokesperson told the BBC that their system was hacked to create what they called “unauthorised content” and added that they immediately updated their security and verification protocols to prevent further abuse of their platform.

But Angela Zhang, of the University of Hong Kong, says what happened to Olga is “very common in China”.

The country is “home to a vast underground economy specialising in counterfeiting, misappropriating personal data, and producing deepfakes”, she said.

This is despite China being one of the first countries to attempt to regulate AI and what it can be used for. It has even modified its civil code to protect likeness rights from digital fabrication.

Statistics disclosed by the public security department in 2023 show authorities arrested 515 individuals for “AI face swap” activities. Chinese courts have also handled cases in this area.

But then how did so many videos of Olga make it online?

One reason could be because they promoted the idea of friendship between China and Russia.

Beijing and Moscow have grown significantly closer in recent years. Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Putin have said the friendship between the two countries has “no limits”. The two are due to meet in China this week.

Chinese state media have been repeating Russian narratives justifying its invasion of Ukraine and social media has been censoring discussion of the war.

“It is unclear whether these accounts were coordinating under a collective purpose, but promoting a message that is in line with the government’s propaganda definitely benefits them,” said Emmie Hine, a law and technology researcher from the University of Bologna and KU Leuven.

“Even if these accounts aren’t explicitly linked to the CCP [Chinese Communist Party], promoting an aligned message may make it less likely that their posts will get taken down.”

But this means that ordinary people like Olga remain vulnerable and are at risk of falling foul of Chinese law, experts warn.

Kayla Blomquist, a technology and geopolitics researcher at Oxford University, warns that “there is a risk of individuals being framed with artificially generated, politically sensitive content” who could be subject to “rapid punishments enacted without due process”.

She adds that Beijing’s focus in relation to AI and online privacy policy has been to build out consumer rights against predatory private actors, but stresses that “citizen rights in relation to the government remain extremely weak”.

Ms Hine explains that the “fundamental goal of China’s AI regulations is to balance maintaining social stability with promoting innovation and economic development”.

“While the regulations on the books seem strict, there’s evidence of selective enforcement, particularly of the generative AI licensing rule, that may be intended to create a more innovation-friendly environment, with the tacit understanding that the law provides a basis for cracking down if necessary,” she said.

'Not the last victim’

But the ramifications of Olga’s case stretch far beyond China - it demonstrates the difficulty of trying to regulate an industry that seems to be evolving at break-neck speed, and where regulators are constantly playing catch-up. But that doesn’t mean they’re not trying.

In March, the European Parliament approved the AI Act, the world's first comprehensive framework for constraining the risks of the technology. And last October, US President Joe Biden announced an executive order requiring AI developers to share data with the government.

While regulations at the national and international levels are progressing slowly compared to the rapid race of AI growth, we need “a clearer understanding of and stronger consensus around the most dangerous threats and how to mitigate them”, says Ms Blomquist.

“However, disagreements within and among countries are hindering tangible action. The US and China are the key players, but building consensus and coordinating necessary joint action will be challenging,” she adds.

Meanwhile, on the individual level, there seems to be little people can do short of not posting anything online.

Meanwhile, on the individual level, there seems to be little people can do short of not posting anything online.

“The only thing to do is to not give them any material to work with: to not upload photos, videos, or audio of ourselves to public social media,” Ms Hine says. “However, bad actors will always have motives to imitate others, and so even if governments crack down, I expect we’ll see consistent growth amidst the regulatory whack-a-mole.”

Olga is “100% sure” that she will not be the last victim of generative AI. But she is determined not to let it chase her off the internet.

She has shared her experiences on her YouTube channel, and says some Chinese online users have been helping her by commenting under the videos using her likeness and pointing out they are fake.

She adds that a lot of these videos have now been taken down.

“I wanted to share my story, I wanted to make sure that people will understand that not everything that you're seeing online is real,” says she. “I love sharing my ideas with the world, and none of these fraudsters can stop me from doing that.”

Three lesbian women have died and one more is in critical condition in Buenos Aires, Argentina, after a man threw a Molotov cocktail into their boarding house room on May 6, setting them all on fire. One woman, Pamela Fabiana Cobas, was severely burned and died almost immediately. Her partner, Mercedes Roxana Figueroa, died of organ failure two days later, with burns covering 90 percent of her body. Andrea Amarante died in the hospital on May 12.

Police arrested a 62-year-old male suspect but have not announced a motive for the attack.

Local human rights defenders have expressed concern that disparaging comments about lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people and their rights made by prominent politicians, some of whom are now holding high office, are contributing to already high levels of violence against queer communities. The 2023 report from Buenos Aires’ LGBT ombudsman found that offensive speech by members of President Javier Milei’s political party, as well as on social media and in the streets, in the context of the 2023 presidential campaign “built a climate of segregation, rejection and discrimination; the most fertile ground for violence toward historically vulnerable groups.”

In May 2023, then-candidate Milei said on TV that education on gender and sexuality seeks to “exterminate the population” and causes “the destruction of the most important social nucleus within society ... the family.” In November 2023, now-Foreign Minister Diana Mondino claimed to support marriage equality, but then compared it to head lice in a nationally televised interview, saying: “If you prefer not to bathe and be full of lice and it is your choice ... then don't complain if there is someone who does not like that you have lice.”

A 2023 Human Rights Watch investigation found that around the world, lesbian, bisexual, and queer (LBQ+) couples have been murdered, sexually assaulted, dismembered, or physically attacked alongside their partners. The report found that this “risk of lethal violence” to couples is chronically under-documented. In 26 countries, including Argentina, interviewees repeatedly cited “the extreme danger of appearing in public with an LBQ+ partner as a reason to stay home, refrain from holding their partners’ hand, or otherwise limit their movement and queer signaling.” In Argentina, where government data from 2023 showed 41.7 percent of the population lives in poverty, lesbian couples face heightened barriers to secure housing, limiting their ability to use the privacy of a home to protect themselves.

Authorities in Argentina should conduct a thorough and transparent investigation into the killings and ensure proper medical care and housing for the surviving woman. Government officials should cease and condemn rhetoric that stigmatizes queer women and may contribute to a climate in which they are seen as deserving of violence.

TLDR: RBI, the largest Western bank in Russia, has been warned by the U.S. Treasury about financial system access in a letter voicing concerns over its Russian business. Concerns remain even though RBI dropped plans to sell its Russia-business to sanctioned billionaire Deripaska. Austrian finance ministry says it assumes RBI respects sanctions.

Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International was warned by the U.S. Treasury in writing that its access to the U.S. financial system could be curbed because of its Russia dealings, according to a person who has seen the correspondence.

On May 6, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo sent a letter to RBI, expressing concern about RBI's presence in Russia as well as a $1.5 billion deal with a sanctioned Russian tycoon that the bank has since scrapped, according to the person, who requested anonymity because the matter is private.

While the deal linked to Oleg Deripaska was ditched by Raiffeisen days after the letter arrived, the source said that the U.S. Treasury's concerns over the Austrian bank's business in Russia remain.

The warning is the strongest yet to the biggest Western bank in Russia and follows months of pressure from Washington, which has been looking into RBI's business in the nation for more than a year.

It underscores the deep frustration in Washington with the lender despite its recent decision to abandon a deal that had exacerbated those tensions.

While many Western governments and corporations have radically reduced ties to Moscow since it invaded Ukraine over two years ago, Austria remains linked with Russia through critical gas pipelines, with Vienna still serving as a hub for cash from Russia and its ex-Soviet neighbours.

Reuters reported in March about strong U.S. opposition to the Deripaska transaction, which Raiffeisen had billed as a means of unlocking some of its funds stranded in Russia.

Raiffeisen shares dropped 3% as trading opened, making it the top loser among European banks.

A spokesperson for Raiffeisen said that it had walked away from the deal and had not entered into any such transactions.

The spokesperson said RBI had "significantly reduced" activities in Russia and taken broad measures to mitigate the risks from sanctions.

"RBI will continue to work towards the de-consolidation of its Russian subsidiary," the spokesperson told Reuters.

In the letter, Adeyemo, the U.S. Treasury's second-highest ranking official, said Raiffeisen's extending activities would contradict assurances RBI had given to the Treasury that they were trying to wind down in Russia, according to the source.

Adeyemo warned that RBI's actions increased the risk of Treasury taking action to restrict its access to the U.S. financial system given concerns that its behaviour put U.S. national security at risk.

"The U.S. is losing patience. Enough is enough," said Richard Portes, a professor of economics at London Business School who has written about sanctions. He said there had been "too much" Russian money flowing through Raifeissen and other Western banks, frustrating the Americans. "That (money) has clearly blunted the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions," he added, "This is a big signal."

PILING PRESSURE

The United States is the world's most powerful regulator chiefly because it can sever a bank's access to the dollar, a cornerstone of international finance. Losing access to the U.S. currency would be likely to plunge any bank into a crisis.

In the letter, Adeyemo also made reference to U.S. President Joe Biden's Executive Order authorizing U.S. secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions that conduct significant transactions involving Russia's military-industrial base.

The warning piles more pressure on Raiffeisen, a critical financial bridge for Russian individuals and companies to the West, giving them access to euros and dollars. RBI had vowed to spin off its Russian business, which provides a payment lifeline to hundreds of companies there, after coming under pressure from international regulators. But two years into war, little has changed.

A spokesperson for Austria's finance ministry noted the bank's pledge to de-consolidate its business in Russia and said that it assumed all sanctions were being respected.

Russian authorities had made it clear to RBI, which has around 2,600 corporate customers, 4 million local account holders and 10,000 staff, that they wish it to stay because it enables international payments, one source has told Reuters.

Although Italy's UniCredit also has a business in Russia and is similarly reluctant to leave, RBI is far larger and has become a test of western resolve to end ties with Russia.

A segment on The Hill that cites The Intercept and Democracy Now, and calls out the media downplaying credible accusations of IDF mistreatment of prisoners, including prior to Oct 7? Did I wake up in upside-down world today?

Archived link

TLDR: Some false narratives on Chinese-language media in Taiwan included a piece distributed by Russian media and pro-Russia Weibo accounts saying that "nobody wanted to greet Zelenskyy at the NATO summit". Other false news claimed that "Russian troops have defeated Western allies of Ukraine, like the United States and NATO members" and that "Russians had captured NATO European commander Roger Cloutier" and "NATO generals surrendering to Russia".

One narrator stated that “Ukraine had 60,000 female soldiers, but almost all of them have been killed. Taiwan must not be used by the Americans to become the second Ukraine!” The pieces of this disinformation are often accompanied by remarks warning of the dire consequences of war, urging Taiwanese youth to learn from the horrors of war and persuaded viewers not to encourage conflict with China.

The report: Insights from TFC fact-checking reports on the Russo-Ukrainian War disinformation over the past two years

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, disinformation about this war and the parties involved has pervasively spread in the global community, including among Chinese language speakers.

"While the themes of narratives about the war share some similarities with those in other regions, the disinformation narratives spread in Taiwan have exploited this war, attempting to incite more distrust in the U.S. and the fear of the cost that people would bear, particularly in the event that China and Taiwan go to war", the Taiwan FactCheck Center says in a new report.

Since February 2022, the Taiwan FactCheck Center has published 120 reports related to the Russia-Ukraine War that have circulated in Taiwanese mainstream media and social media, such as Facebook, LINE, and TikTok. The graphic below shows the percentage of themes in the disinformation pieces that have been verified as incorrect

Among the disinformation pieces, the most common category is videos of the war scenes (battlefield situation), which were widely spread during the first few months of the war and mostly depicted Russia’s attacks in Ukraine. A large portion of the videos can be traced back to overseas social media platforms. When the videos were shared on Facebook or LINE by what appeared to be Taiwanese accounts, they were often accompanied by remarks warning of the dire consequences of war.

For example, one piece of disinformation claims that "Ukrainian vehicle troops were attacked by Russia's precision-guided weapon. None of the Ukrainian soldiers survived" first appeared on TikTok written in Russian. When this piece was shared on Facebook and LINE, those who reposted it in Chinese urged Taiwanese youth to learn from the horrors of war and persuaded viewers not to encourage conflict with China. According to TFC's verification, the footage in this piece was obtained from a video game; the film's original producer also confirmed that the video was a game screenshot rather than a real image.

The second largest category of narratives is information about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Some pieces spread in the earliest stage of the war focused on the president’s former career as an actor or his bravery in fighting on the frontlines. However, these images or videos were appropriated from older news articles prior to the war, mistakenly mixed up with another actor, or undergone manipulation.

Nevertheless, as the war wore on, more disinformation pieces portrayed Zelenskyy in a more negative light, such as Zelenskyy using drugs and his family buying luxuries. Some reports attempted to convey the impression that he and Ukraine were being isolated from Western countries.

For example, a piece distributed by Russian media and pro-Russia Weibo accounts saying that "nobody wanted to greet Zelenskyy at the NATO summit" was shared on Taiwan's online forum, PTT. Those who circulated this photo used the disinformation piece to highlight that the United States and Western countries were unreliable. Fact-checkers pointed out that while this photo was taken at the NATO Summit, the assertion was false because other photos showed Zelenskyy and other Western leaders interacting warmly.

Allegations that Western media or Ukraine staged the scenes of the war in Ukraine were also prevalent, circulating mostly during the first four months of the war. One example is a claim first promoted by Chinese propaganda websites, such as Guancha.cn [观察者网]. It claimed that Ukrainian influencers staged the photos in Western media showing pregnant women injured at the Mariupol hospital during a Russian airstrike. The Chinese media coverage further quoted the Defense Ministry of Russia, claiming that the so-called “Russia strike” was faked by Ukraine. However, the TFC found that the photos were authentic and indeed taken during Russia’s air assault in Ukraine.

Eight pieces of disinformation among the 120 fact-checks were directly related to Taiwan. The subjects of these pieces, however, ranged from Russians kidnapping Taiwanese volunteers in Ukraine to Taiwan giving Ukraine weapons. When the U.S. Congress was debating whether to increase aid to Ukraine, some X accounts spread a rumor that the U.S. intended to shift part of the Ukraine funding to Taiwan. The Taiwanese media then quoted and propagated this rumor. Actually, this false information exaggerated an interview with a former advisor, who mentioned a rumor that some funding for Ukraine could be reallocated to Taiwan. The TFC determined that there was insufficient evidence to support the advisor’s statement.

The 120 fact-checking pieces over the past two years also revealed that some themes faded out of attention over time, while others endured but with changes in the narratives. In the first year of the war, more disinformation narratives were about the scenes of the battlefield (particularly Russia’s attacks on Ukraine) and the “fake news” produced by Western media. When the war proceeded into the second year, the narratives became more diverse, with spotlights on the desperation of Ukrainian soldiers and the scheme of the U.S. behind the war. Meanwhile, malicious actors continued producing false information about the Ukrainian allies’ loss. Overall, the main messages behind the narratives intend to deliver the image that the U.S. is unreliable, and that Ukraine has made a bad choice to plunge itself into a war with Russia.

On Chinese social media platforms, there are rumors that Russian troops have defeated Western allies of Ukraine, like the United States and NATO members. One of the earliest claims stated that the Russians had captured NATO European commander Roger Cloutier in Mariupol. This fake article appeared to have been posted in early April by a pro-Russia Twitter (now X) account before spreading over Chinese social media. Several Chinese video content creators made comments based on this inaccurate claim; some even asserted that the BBC said Russia refused to speak with the U.S. over the commander's detention. These pieces were also posted in traditional Chinese on Facebook, targeting Taiwanese audiences. TFC Fact-checkers verified that this information was untrue since NATO had not sent any ground forces into Ukraine; the commander of NATO’s Allied Land Command (not “the NATO European commander”), Roger Cloutier, was in Turkey during the conflict in Mariupol.

Nevertheless, in May 2022, another video about several NATO generals surrendering to Russia in a steel plant at Mariupol emerged on Chinese social media. Facebook posts also shared the footage and criticized the Taiwanese media for not covering this event. According to the verification by TFC, this video was a compilation of images about other irrelevant events. Again, in January 2024, a piece started circulating on TikTok, Weibo, and Facebook, citing “Russian sources” and claiming that Lloyd Austin, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, was not hospitalized because of cancer. Instead, he was seriously hurt by Russian missiles in Ukraine on January 3rd and has since passed away. The TFC found this information untrue and was actually translated from an American fake news website, Real Raw News.

In addition to the narratives depicting the capture of Western generals and officials, several pieces spread on Facebook and TikTok claimed Russia destroyed Ukrainian allies’ fighter aircraft or sunk ships, including a Japanese cargo ship that “shipped weapons and aids for Ukraine.” According to fact-checking results, the claims were fabricated, and the images used in the claims were actually about other unrelated events.

The above disinformation narratives about Western allies’ fiascos, together with other narratives of Ukraine soldiers’ rising death tolls or refusal to fight in the war, have been used in Chinese-language disinformation to caution the Taiwanese not to become the pawns of the Americans. A recent false piece shared on TikTok and Facebook showed dead bodies being hurled into a truck. The narrator stated that “Ukraine had 60,000 female soldiers, but almost all of them have been killed. Taiwan must not be used by the Americans to become the second Ukraine!” According to the Ukrainian government’s available data, there have indeed been 60,000 female soldiers in Ukraine. Nonetheless, over the last two years, 100 Ukrainian female soldiers have died, rather than “almost all of them.”

To prove that the U.S. encouraged the war in Ukraine for its own benefit, some pieces faked statements made by American or Ukrainian high-ranking officials or generals. For example, a false piece claimed that former American general Jack Keane said the aid to Ukraine was “a good investment” since “it’s the Ukrainians who were sacrificing, not Americans.” The piece further said Keane said the same situation applies to Taiwan.

Another recent piece spread in April 2024 on Douyin claimed that Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and current Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom, left a will, accusing the U.S. of pushing Ukraine into the war and warning Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines not to be fooled by the Americans. Fact-checking results show that the first statement manipulated Keane’s interview with Fox News, and the “will of Zaluzhnyi” was totally fabricated.

The disinformation about the Russia-Ukraine War has plagued the global community, and the false pieces spread in different regions were used for various purposes. According to the Atlantic Council report, the disinformation narratives spread in Europe intended to erode European support for Ukraine, whereas false claims disseminated in the Middle East and North Africa attempted to incite anti-West and anti-colonialist sentiments.

As for the disinformation circulated around in Taiwan, the messages have been fixated on “the manipulation of the U.S.” and emphasized the devastating repercussions of the war.