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Kamala Harris edges ahead of Donald Trump in national polls for US election.
(theconversation.com)
this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2024
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Dems absolutely need at least +5 % to eke out a win in the electoral college.
This sounds like dems celebrating too soon to me
We're celebrating that the trend is positive.
Look at it this way: when polls continued to decline under Biden the trajectory, the trend, portended a very bad outcome and signalled a change in strategy needed to occur.
When Democrats see these headlines, it means the battlefield is shifting in our favor or the wind is in our sails even if the war isn't yet won.
That's all. If a downward spiral of polls spells despair, an upward ascent of polls spells hype and enthusiasm, which tends to he contagious and self-sustaining like a nuclear reaction.
Actually I didn’t see that here at all.
When the polls were bad I mainly saw the blue no matter who crowd go on and on about how inaccurate the polls are
Niche communities on a niche website like Lemmy are not representative of the wider democratic sample set to be fair. I was definitely one of those people sounding the alarm on here. For a considerable time many people felt Biden was our locked-in nominee and we had to support him no matter what because there was no alternative choice. And true, Vote Blue No Matter Who still applies whether polls go well or not.
But luckily, the wider Democratic party put enough pressure to have Biden stand down.
The polls are inaccurate at times, that they don't necessarily show the exact amount of support a candidate has. A change in trends across multiple polls over time, however, can show changing attitudes, even if the specific percentage of support estimated is not necessarily accurate in each poll.
They are a toxic bane and should be named, shamed, and ignored.
5% at a minimum.
8% to be a real favorite.
12% percent and it's locked up.
Well technically you hypothetically could win an election with only 23% of the popular vote.
Yeah but we have actual data to support what I said
What is called for is more specific poll results. Like included in the data is that California went up 5% for Harris. Which doesn't matter in real terms, those electoral votes were never up for grabs.
In the states that are considered credibly not already settled, the polling results don't seem to have moved much, except maybe Pennsylvania is a hair more toward Harris than before, but it's still well within the margin of error it is so close.
Which is why 1% lead in polls is not very promising for kamala
And on top of that I’m assuming the polls have a margin of error at the very least of 2%
I mean this is why any blue maga from the previous 8 months needs to be named, shamed, and tied to a stake at the edge of town.
Democrats never needed to be in this position, and it wasn't Biden to blame for the unforced error, but the anti democratic culture within the DNC, main stream media, and large social media that worked it's ass of to shut down any questioning of Biden as presumptive nominee. That did more damage than Trump ever could have. Trump isn't the reason Harris starts off polling in the 40s, Blue MAGA is.
The VP pick up seems make or break for the early momentum Harris got. Shapiro seems like cold water; Walz seems like it would add fuel. If she goes Shapiro, this 1% week over week delta is going to stall out, because she's signaled to progressives and black and brown people she doesn't take Gaza seriously and that puts MI on the chopping block.
Prob the most interesting presidential race in a hundred years.
Oh swallow that whole bowl of shit and quit complaining, she’s going to choose Hillary Clinton lol
(From Nina Turner Wikipedia page)
She told Peter Nicholas of The Atlantic, "it's like saying to somebody, 'You have a bowl of shit in front of you, and all you've got to do is eat half of it instead of the whole thing.
Walz went from 25% to 53% over the course of the day on polymarket.
Damn I might have to vote for her actually god damn let’s see who is more progressive…. As a voter in a solid blue state if she chooses buttigieg I’m leaving it blank… I love that he is gay I hate that he is neoliberal
If the rally is in Pennsylvania which is for Pennsylvania
As someone who likes space travel funding I also like the Astronaut but I guess he is a corporate lackey
Its between Shapiro and Walz. Buttigieg is out, so is the astronaut. I guess we don't find out tonight.
Walz it is
I’m probably going to actually fill in a vote for Harris this election (was planning on leaving it blank)
I'm holding all celebration until the election is certified and there is no sign of insurrection.
For what it's worth: I'm not a democrat. Ask me why I'm supporting a democrat and will say in no uncertain terms there is no choice to be made this election. I mean there's a lot of reasons, but it is utter insanity this isn't enough by a long shot.
My dad was the same way after Jan6. Before he had been a hardcore drumpf supporter.
Seeing the attack on our capitol finally broke him out of it. I don't know if he's going to vote at all but I am sure that he won't be voting red for the first time in his life.
My aunt? Well.... not so much...
Thank you for being clear sighted about what has happened.
That shit never would have flown with me. Again, I might be libertarian, but not the crazy kind.
But for whatever it's worth, this whole last decade has been weird. I know, personally, people who showed up with the goofy "tea party" hats that just kinda quietly bowed out, and on the other end people who became more vocal. It's just not normal. There's not a consistency between teaparty/not teaparty republicans and Trump.
I'm glad your Dad at least is in the former. I'll argue all day with those people about basic human rights, but my point is shit is fucked. The people I know, whether or not I agreed with them, that were on those statehouse steps, are not turning out to vote. I get fiscal conservatives, I get structuralists, I hope someday to meet one or the other, because certainly neither has ever been elected to office.
I know exactly one fiscal conservative and she thought the Tea Party was trouble long before either the media or I had figured out they were anything more than a goofy protest group.
That said, she was one person out of thousands. I used to live in a very red state and the vast majority of my fellow citizens there were the exactly stereotypical bigoted redneck that drumpf's bombastic style appeals to.
There are legitimate concerns about our spending and debt. Fiscal conservatives aren't totally wrong when they bring that up, but it's never the sacred "free market" that has to take the blows. The last proper fiscal conservative was Eisenhower, and even that's a mixed bag.
It’s so fun and cool that the person with the most votes still loses but only if not Republican. Great system.
Most votes usually means the big states and electoral college is more closely associated with representation in the House of Representatives….. so the electoral college is somewhat related to population but it’s off by a lot… there are also other factors, for example states with overall low populations (generally republican)
Harris already erased Trump's swing-state lead:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-30/kamala-harris-erases-trump-s-swing-state-lead-in-2024-election-poll?embedded-checkout=true
There’s a positive trend but I don’t think it’s as pronounced as some are celebrating it to be, or is it enough
There's momentum at the moment and things can change quickly. But there's just no doubt that Biden's decision to step back and Harris stepping up has sent Trump reeling.
Agreed, as a progressive I’m actually getting excited for once in a long while
The campaign certainly isn't celebrating too soon (Walz was a smart VP pick vs Vance who was clearly a celebratory lap pick). But yes, many people in the American left seem to think Harris is going to shit all over Trump despite her only just pulling even during her honeymoon period.
I live in a blue state and I was planning on leaving president option blank on my ballot for Biden or harris.
Now seriously considering filling in that bubble to Harris / walz and encouraging family and friends to do the same…. But again I live in a state that is going to be blue
Agreed. It's not over until it's over. If people haven't learned that by now, then clearly they weren't paying close enough attention in 2016. Get off your asses, vote, put in the work, and if you win then you can celebrate.