this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2024
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EDIT: For clarification, I feel that the current situation on the ground in the war (vs. say a year ago) might indicate that an attack on Russia might not result in instant nuclear war, which is what prompted my question. I am well aware of the “instant nuclear Armageddon” opinion.

Serious question. I don’t need to be called stupid. I realize nuclear war is bad. Thanks!

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[–] BlackLaZoR@fedia.io 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

what are the likely outcomes?

Putin launches nukes, huge amount of civilians die, russian military is crushed within next few months. NATO wins at the cost of horrible loss of civilians killed by russian nukes. World economy shrinks considerably

[–] Reverendender@sh.itjust.works 2 points 2 months ago (2 children)

So, this is the same analysis I read like a year ago. Do you feel that the current situation is not different enough now to indicate an alternate course of events?

[–] BlackLaZoR@fedia.io 12 points 2 months ago

Do you feel that the current situation is not different enough

Putin has the exact same number of nukes and ICBMs as before. This is the main factor, and I don't see it changing any time soon

[–] magnetosphere@fedia.io 7 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I’m not who you asked, but I’ll answer anyway: no

[–] Reverendender@sh.itjust.works 2 points 2 months ago