Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don't know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
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Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
On a scale of 1 to 10 how likely do you think war is?
I've been barely following the conflict. I just woke up and when I checked the news about Lebanon - I saw the news that Nasrallah had been killed. On this "live updates" page - the list of recent events on this page certainly made feel war is immanent - Lebanon live updates: Hezbollah confirms that leader Hassan Nasrallah killed in Israeli airstrike
How significant is this from the list? Emphasis mine.
~3 hours ago from https://english.almayadeen.net/shortnews
~45 mins ago
10, we are already in one and have been for months.
5, frantically swinging like a metronome between nothing ever happens and it sure feels like stuff is happening
10
5, I really think the resistance knows that the US will 100% defend Israel militarily if they launch a real assault on it.
Yeah but Israel will launch an assault against Iran, they know the US will stay behind them, and Israel has wanted war with Iran for a long time. Now they are emboldened and I really believe they will follow through
If Israel strikes Iran like this I'll raise the probability to an 8
There's 3 ways this goes from here and I don't really have a good argument to make for any of them being significantly more or less likely:
I think possibility 3 is not as likely just because Iran is going to hold back the other members of the resistance from getting the US involved, but I can't discard the possibility since they still haven't retaliated over Haniyeh's assassination. So 6 or 7?
11
The war has already begun.
Gotta be 11 at least
Link on that please
That's not in the link, the actual wording was: "Iran has called for sending troops into Lebanon"
Unless they actually start mobilizing, I doubt they'd risk full confrontation that would lead to Lebanon's collapse in a Syrian civil war situation.
They're fine right now fwiw, stirring the pot for one guy in the end of the day and giving settlers what they want is short-sighted.
Watching their proxies being beheaded is not "fine" but at this point I doubt they are willing to do anything that risks losing Syria.
Not Iran, I meant that the revolution is still fine. Nothing has fundamentally changed, the blockades are still happening, settlers are still leaving, the economy is still failing, and the resistance has more rockets and missiles that enter the entity than any other point since the war.
Unless any of that changes, I would say that the resistance is still fine and looking at a good trajectory for how the greater war will end.
The link is in the comment.