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Called it, using Allan Lichtman's own 13 keys principle (in ways that he himself overlooked), and on a heavily downvoted comment.
Where I was wrong was with how narrow the result would he. It wasn't even Gore v Bush levels of close unlike when Lichtman's 13 keys prediction previously failed. Kamala lost the popular vote to a convicted felon that tried to usurp democracy and is the reason why abortion is no longer a federal right. The Republicans spent the last few weeks crapping on Haitians and Puerto Ricans, yet won some districts with large Latino populations.
This is what happens when Democrats ignore their voter base and choose a cabal of unpopular and uncharismatic candidates to carry the torch. The bar is now so low that we need James Cameron to venture out into the Mariana Trench and lift it back up again...
Harris was popular when she first announced. She then proceeded to run to the cold dead embrace of the Biden campaign.
Progressive policy is more popular than any candidate, if they focused on rent control, free healthcare, free childcare, free college and other immediate, material improvements to people's conditions, they'd have won in a landslide. Instead they abandoned the rest of the country to pursue the <10% of republicans who weren't in the bag for Trump.
I don't think she was popular when first announced, rather the fact that not-Biden was popular.
Absolutely.
I'm convinced that Biden would have won.
I personally believe that this is not Biden's or Kamala's fault. It's the old-school Democrat establishment's fault. They did Bernie dirty in 2016. And then they did the same to Biden in these elections. Lichtman predicted a Biden win, bad debate performance and all, and the dems fucked it up.
To be transparent, I still believed Lichtman when he said Harris would win. I will never believe in his stuff again, unless he adds new keys or something.
Yes. Every time, even in 2020 when the mood of the country was very different, they are afraid to run anything other than center-right candidates because they "aren't electable". Guess what - your corporatist center-right candidates are consistently priming people to receive the protectionist messages from the fascists, Maybe fucking try something different some time, fucking DNC!
OK, the next question is: How do we convey this to liberals who think we want the dems to lose?
In the words of my boomer mother, "Things aren't going to get better until the boomers die off."
It's probably not even boomers anymore. This community, full of everything from hardcore progressives to literal communists, has gone feral defending Harris's disaster of a campaign. You couldn't, and still can't, call the DNC out for running a horrible candidate with a horrible (nonexistent) platform without being called a troll or a Russian bot. The new generation fell for the two party system hook, line and sinker.
I think y'all just need to come to terms that America is further right than the Democrat party, and the Democratic party moving left is not going to help them.
How would we know that? They've never tried.
Because there's no point flirting with the non-existent further left.
Huh? Obama won by getting leftist votes so that clearly isn't true.
What leftist votes and in what numbers?
I mean look up Obama's presidential campaign. He flipped red states and won blue states by running on a progressive anti status quo platform, and in doing so wiped the floor with the Republican candidate.
Why would I look it up when I lived through it already. He ran a fairly standard Democratic campaign.
Huh???? Okay you gotta be shitting me. I'm not American so while I know that's impossible but I can't really refute their personal experience so can an American around here do it?
I'll just quote this:
YES! I held my nose and voted for her, she turned her back on everything that looked like hope and change during her campaign. Her reaction to R looking weak was to jump to the right, somehow.
Having said that, anyone who needed to be wooed to not vote for Trump was a lost cause, but she literally turned away from every sort of policy decision that excites Democrats.
No she didn't
That's bizarre, were people confused by the wording? Was there a media blitz by local landlords? More people are renters than landlords so obviously the majority doesn't want rent to be higher.
There was a massive media campaign against it. Every other political ad on tv was against it .
Progressive policies are popular until billionaires spend millions of dollars convincing people that the world will end if we help poor people a bit.
That's true, we need a strategy to deal with the media.
The same thing could be observed when even the most right-wing democrats in 2020 were saying we need police reform, and in 2022, they were all talking about a made-up crime wave, or how every election until now, reliable dem voters understood immigration is a net positive for society, but suddenly they're talking about how Kamala is going to secure the border
I think inflation is the biggest part of why Trump won. People wrongly blamed Biden for it. I guess we'll just have to learn some lessons again.
People learned a lesson the first time?!
Is there any chance that shit was rigged this time around? As an outsider it's honestly just crazy to me that the difference can be so huge, almost unimaginable.
I don't really think so, I think the Trump campaign is as surprised as the rest of us. Their plan to steal the election hinged on them calling the results into question and contesting the whole thing through the Trump-friendly Supreme Court.
I wonder if any of them are disappointed. They were planning for a coup, but they were given power freely.
Or it goes to show how much of a bubble we have here and how skewed the reporting in other countries is. So far there is absolutely no indication that it would be rigged and frankly the disconnect of the liberal online bubbles es emblematic for the disconnect of the Dem party from the people.
This definitely
Even if it were - what are we gonna do about it? After shitting all over the place with their BS for the past four years, claiming an election is stolen has risen to "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" levels.
There would need to be a 4k video of Trump and cronies detailing exactly how they were going to do it, and every detail would need to be easily verified, and even then I'm not sure it would get enough traction to matter.
There's always a chance of almost anything, but it is very slim (conspiracy theory) with no evidence to support it:
"Importantly, we have no evidence of any malicious activity that had a material impact on the security or integrity of our election infrastructure," per the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Director Jen Easterly.
Source: https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/news/statement-cisa-director-easterly-security-2024-elections
We still don't know what their "little secret" is.
Congratu-fucking-lations