this post was submitted on 14 Nov 2024
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ignores non-voters
If they didn't vote in 2020 then yes they are not included in these numbers because they're unlikely to be Democrats that got pushed away from the party because of events in Palestine. Those voters that voted for Biden in 2020 and abstained voting this time around are included in these numbers however.
In two of these states Harris actually got more votes than Biden did four years ago. The gain in North Carolina is small enough that maybe it could be explained by changes in population or demographics and if adjusted for that she would have received fewer votes than Biden in 2020. Otherwise it seems fairly safe to say for all of these states except maybe Michigan that recent events in Palestine did not drive voters away from the Democrats between 2020 and 2024 because the Democrat's losses from 2020 and third party voters don't amount to more than Trump's margin of victory.