this post was submitted on 14 Nov 2024
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haven't seen this re-done with final numbers
In Michigan Harris lost by 80K votes (netting 70K fewer votes than Biden in 2020), anti-genocide candidates got 50K (37K more than 2020)
In Wisconsin Harris lost by 29K votes (netting 30K more votes than Biden in 2020), anti-genocide candidates got 17K (16K more than in 2020)
In Pennsylvania Harris lost by 130K votes (netting 66K fewer than Biden in 2020), anti-genocide candidates got 34K (Greens were not on the ballot in 2020)
In North Carolina Harris lost by 190K votes (netting 4K more than Biden in 2020), anti-genocide candidates got 35K votes (23K more than 2020)
I'm not a statician by any means but my reading of the numbers is that Michigan seems to be the only of these states that you could argue that abstentions from 2020 plus the growth of anti-genocide parties could have actually cost Harris the state.
Edit: if every single voter in these states that the Dems lost between 2020 and 2024 voted for Harris, and every vote for anti-genocide candidates was a whole seperate vote for Harris (which is an absurd assumption), then the only one of these states that would flip to her would be Michigan. If Palestine was what drove all of these votes away from Harris (also an absurd assumption) then we can fairly conclusively say that the Democrats' position on Palestine did not cost them WI, PA, and NC.
ignores non-voters
If they didn't vote in 2020 then yes they are not included in these numbers because they're unlikely to be Democrats that got pushed away from the party because of events in Palestine. Those voters that voted for Biden in 2020 and abstained voting this time around are included in these numbers however.
In two of these states Harris actually got more votes than Biden did four years ago. The gain in North Carolina is small enough that maybe it could be explained by changes in population or demographics and if adjusted for that she would have received fewer votes than Biden in 2020. Otherwise it seems fairly safe to say for all of these states except maybe Michigan that recent events in Palestine did not drive voters away from the Democrats between 2020 and 2024 because the Democrat's losses from 2020 and third party voters don't amount to more than Trump's margin of victory.