this post was submitted on 28 Dec 2024
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chapotraphouse

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Top decile probability of death is 55 % over a decade or roughly 0.5 % per month. Thus, biden has 1 month to croak and trumpo has a year to croak, which leads to (1-0.995)*0.95+0.995=...=0.025% chance or 1 in 4000 for both to occur.

https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2020/us-mort-rate-socioeconomic/

(the website data is more interesting than low probability of success)

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[โ€“] miz@hexbear.net 29 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)
[โ€“] KurtVonnegut@hexbear.net 14 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as old farts.

old farts

are they fermented?