this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from January 20th to January 26th, 2025 - Viva La Resistance
(hexbear.net)
After 15 months of genocide - and resistance to it - the Israeli regime realized that they could not win a military victory against Hamas, and were forced to sign a humiliating ceasefire in order to get their hostages returned.
With much of Syria under the control of Al-Qaeda, and an increasing level of covert infiltration into Lebanon, the crisis in the Middle East is not over, and we may still be in its beginning stages, as the center of hegemony continues its gradual shift away from the United States. Their navy, once considered the best in the world, is likely also not very happy about their ships and aircraft carriers being forced to retreat by Yemen, one of the poorest countries; and all eyes are on Iran, who has, over the last year and a half, demonstrated a newfound confidence and strength to directly strike Israel.
The recovery for Gaza will take, at a minimum, decades; it could indeed never fully recovery to even how it was before, considering it is not in Israel's interests to see their concentration camps recover. But Hamas has proven to be steadfast and the tunnel network has proven its resilience, despite facing some of the most powerful conventional bombing in history. This shows that Palestine's liberation is a when, not an if; and hopefully a much sooner "when" than expected before October 7th.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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there isnt even a "left" yet worth speaking of in the US, this is just pandering to his chud audience and meant to own the radlibs. is this another bit you're doing where you're refusing to use a tone tag?
Nah XHS goes off the rails when it comes to Biden and the dems. Arguing for a mao style United front with democrats in the face of fascism in one comment while acknowledging the dems have helped the right crush the left at every turn in another. Entirely incomprehensible
yes im well aware but xhs randomly does bits like this too and i can never tell when it's a bit, like this kind of comment was just like ones made on the simulatedliberalism account if you remember that account
The infamous one is Kaplya. People got so mad when the Kaplya account said that Biden helped queer people. People here got mad when the Kaplya account ask whether China should retaliate with nukes if the US nuked China.
People need to relax. Everything outside of Hudsonposting is either a bit or some argument that they picked up from Chinese netizens that they half-believe.
lmao yeah i remember that comment, good times
Yeah I’ve run into those before. This one reeks though, so I hope it’s a bit
It’s not a bit. I know many people disagree with me on this, and that’s fine, but I have made it known since before the election that a Trump presidency is going to be worse, far worse, especially for the minorities and our comrades in America.
I still think appeasing to the Democrats while surviving on humiliation, secretly building the strength while delaying overt fascism, is a more viable strategy, but apparently people don’t like it because strategic alliance with the Democrats means you’re also supporting genocide and 100% behind the Democrats’ policies. It’s very black and white thinking.
But more than that, Trump is unstable. Biden is evil, sure, but there is certainty in his policies. You cannot even try to guess what Trump is trying to do - annex Greenland? Canada? Are those even serious proposals? When you cannot read your opponent’s mind, or when rationality has been thrown out of window, the world becomes more unstable. The likelihood of a global war exponentially increases because countries can no longer predict a stable course or understand what their opponent wants.
for minorities, yes, in the short term. however, how much exactly is still up in the air. For instance, I remain skeptical they will actually do mass deportations, i still dont understand where the personnel to do that will come from, and even besides that it will actually collapse the american economy. Agriculture and construction will collapse overnight if something like what the republicans are posturing towards goes through. Will capital (especially capital that is already aligned with the republicans to begin with) really let them do this? I doubt it. how bad it gets for trans people will likely depend on how willing blue states are willing to push back against the federal government, but it was always going to get way worse for trans people in red states. etc etc. additionally, dems are swinging further and further to the right every year, like 10 fucking democratic senators swung to help pass one of the recent demonic border bills to ensure it was filibuster proof, the (national, at least) dems will probably start calling to hunt trans people for sport within the next couple of decades (/hj).
as for "leftists", again we are not a real threat. any increased repression would pretty much be like, on social media, maybe a couple of public arrests to scare people. if i'm wrong and most US communists on this site get put in camps i guess you can tell the ghost of my account i told you so lol
CPUSA has tried this for like the last 70 years (and DSA for however long theyve been around, 40 or whatever?), and uh it really hasnt worked out very well for them. people dont see you as "making a strategic alliance" with the democrats, they (rightfully) see you as good little doggies doing your best to get people to vote for the democrats. honestly this is probably the worst thing ive ever seen you write on this site, this directly goes against the ideas of marx and lenin in how to participate in bourgeoisie democracy. im not even trying to be dogmatic, i think the past decades of CPUSA and other reformist/quasi reformist parties around the world failing to do jack shit proves that they had the right idea about refusing to tell your party members and any sympathizers to "strategically" vote for a bourgeoisie candidate. this even extends to countries with parliamentary democracy like in europe, where socialist parties think they can do a similar type of thing by forming a coalition, and when the libs make sure everything still fucking sucks you get drowned in their baggage and lose all the credibility with the working class that you spent so many years trying to cultivate, because the failures of those you entered into coalition with are directly seen as your failures.
the other glaring problem, even giving your idea more credit than i should, is that how are we supposed to "secretly" do this? despite my skepticism about a meaningful increase in state repression against "leftists", the one thing more than anything i agree with is that the state maintains 100% attention to any and all anticapitalist groups within the US (and around the globe, if able), especially marxist groups. How can we actually "secretly" grow our power with the eye of sauron making sure it always has us in its field of view? I also see you acknowledge that the democrats are also fascists, and that the republicans are only "overt" fascists. why in the fucking world would any right minded communist anywhere in the world do anything to help fascists gain/keep power, even if they put on a nice mask and the other option does not? the CIA and FBI will tireless work to destroy us all the same, and all it stands to gain us is by associating us with the nicer fascists' actions. hell, not to advocate for accelerationism*, but the maskless fascists will at least trick less of the most marginalized members of society who have some of the most revolutionary potential!!!
my argument is that the certainty in biden makes everyone ( i.e. american, european, chinese, other third world, etc. socialists) too complacent. i dont think it's any coincidence that the liberal faction in the cpc has made at least a bit of resurgence during biden's presidency. unfortunately this also seems like advocating for accelerationism, (and from a quick search isnt the actual quote but encapsulates what i am trying to say)" as mao supposedly (almost certainly did not say) said: "Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent." Not advocating for communists to do what they can to stir up the situation; instead, i am trying to say that we should not fear the chaos, and instead welcome and be excited for the chaos when it arises.
*expanding on my position on accelerationism
How I (and hopefully others?) separate myself from the accelerationists: the accerlerationists from my impression do the opposite of your strategy. they advocate for actively helping (or at least, something close to that) someone chaotic and more-likely-person-to-harm-the-empire like trump, in the hopes that he brings the conditions necessary for a revolution. I think the problem with this approach is two-fold: it in a way it demands the most marginalized people in society to sacrifice themselves to bring down the empire, which is both morally and strategically terrible! why should us (especially privileged) anticapitalists demand that the already most marginalized among society sacrifice themselves to ensure the downfall of the amerikkkan empire? what good would it do to communists to sacrifice some/all of the most revolutionary populations in the world, just to drag down the empire (to some unknown degree), while we wait an unknown number of years for this process to complete (surely a century of sacrificing minorities should be enough to bring communism, right!!! /j)
but then, why not go with your idea? ensure the worst of the fascists (i.e. in america, the republicans) cant win. The problem with it, in my view, is this is where we communists must do everything in our power to convince that any reprieve is temporary, in your idea. but, how convincing is this, really? "put these people into power. oh but actually they will totally betray you, 8 years from now". do you actually expect that to be convincing? do you expect people to remember in 8 years? meaning, 8 years pass, the communists told people they need to support the dems (or insert less mean face of capital) but that they will eventually betray them. do you think it would be unreasonable to expect that the people that we communists supported just 8/x years ago will never give them the same concessions that they just tasted? should we expect people to sacrifice (relatively, based on our fucking word!!!) recent peace for the guarantee of extremely hard times that will result in the best outcome for them and their children?
the only option, as marx and lenin said, is to detach yourself from the bourgousie parties and prepare yourself to weather the storm. hopefully you have a decade or 2 to prepare yourself with the nicer fascists, but you should put no hope in that (and in fact, should prepare as if adolf hitler himeslf will take control of your country in the next election, whether that be 4 years from now or 1 month). we need to openly, brazenly, gather as much strength as we can, so that we can gather it as quickly as possible. in order to prepare for the worst bourgeoisie repression imaginable, while remaining principled to avoid any unnecessary bleed off of the most revolutionary members of the working class (racicalized, sexualized, etc.), and just generally keeping ourselves unattached from the nicer faces of fascism to keep ourselves from being attached to any form of fascism.
Communists must form a countercultural node, detached from the networks of capitalism - Even the internet right now is too reliant on the goodwill of capitalism. Assimilation into the consensus of liberalism is a folly.
Thanks for the thoughtful answer. I will digest on them.
You are right that trump will be much worse for trans people though. There is a marked difference between apathy and hatw
Yeah I think people have gone all apathy now instead of realizing that they need to play both sides to come out on top.
I need to study more about European history but Chinese history is full of such cases! Good guys don’t always win, it’s the most astute opportunist who could sense where the wind is blowing that often came out prevailing in the end. After studying a lot of Chinese history recently, I can honestly see where the visionary leaders of the CPC learn their lessons from.
I agree with this sentiment in general and over the last decade of organizing here i have often told my comrades about the three mountains situation during the new democracy period, using the example of the CPC's alliance with KMT. The issue is that in these examples, the CPC were at the table because they had mass support. The American left is virtually unknown by the masses, and in fact the masses consider the American left to be the democrats. This is why some others were saying this bill is targeting Dems, Americans on both sides truly think them to be Marxists. So this is the problem, under the Dems, the masses are less interesting in organizing anything because they can be complacent, but under trump's first term we had the largest growth in leftist organizing since the 60s. Until there is a left with mass support, the US left is so irrelevant that they can't play any sides, as we aren't even on the field.
Yes.
The US is accepting that it can not beat China as things are. The mindset is shifting from that to "get bigger and stronger to beat it later".
The issue is that the incoming administration are morons. Unlike the capable ghouls of the past who understood the hidden nature of the american empire, obfuscated behind enough layers for people not to immediately recognise it. The current crop of ghouls are terminally map-brained like a paradox game player. If it's not painted with USA on the map, it's not part of the US' tendrils of power.
Because of this thinking, they see painting the map in their colour as increasing the power of the US. Even if it means absorbing places that are already within their power anyway.
In practice this means they seek to absorb those least likely to fight back. And that happens to be places already within US power. Allies and Partners.
Europe is the most likely victim of the US in the current mindset. I suspect detente with China and a pivot to fucking over the currently weak Europe as much as possible.
They are (re)invoking the Monroe Doctrine, which is a sign of weakness because the Monroe Doctrine was superseded by Pax Americana during the late 19th century. In 3 decades, the US went from installing the president of a former superpower and rival to renaming a body of water.
Yes and this is what makes a Trump presidency so scary.
You’re dealing with a guy who carries a bomb into a room threatening to blow the entire room up, and somehow thinks he’s invincible to the blast. He can no longer be reasoned with - anything you say, might be taken the wrong way and there he goes pushing the button.
The world is turning highly volatile because you can no longer tell America to “calm down, don’t blow up the room just yet, let’s talk it out and see if we can give you what you want without killing all of us”.
The fact that Trump is coming up with all these outrageous proposals even against his own allies and leaving everyone guessing greatly increases the likelihood of a diplomatic breaking point.
I don't think that's entirely true. If this theory is correct and they're accepting they can't currently fight China then there is some degree of sensibility to their actions. They know what they can win and what they can't win and their actions are based on that.
This is good. U.S. power, as much as is concentrated in military power, mostly relies on people believing they won't actually blow up the bomb (because every single president has been the guy in the room with a bomb, some just don't make clear threats). If they believe he will actually blow up the bomb, they may actually be compelled to do something.
xiaohongshu spent the bulk of election season saying Biden had it in the bag
There was a general trend on hexbear as a whole to dismiss Trump. Which I didn't understand, all the unbiased and reliable polling data I saw from a few weeks out showed Harris and Trump at a statistical tie in terms of people saying who they would vote for, but with Trump leading on most key issues. An indicator that the election was at best a coin flip for the Democrats, and at worst a large loss. Which is a pretty bad place to be in, and favouring Trump. In the end we got something in between the two, though leaning substantially towards a large loss for the Dems.
Also I think a large amount of US hexbears live in a liberal or radlib bubble a bit, I'm not American and even I could sense that the popular energy was in favour of Trump on conservative leaning social media and the like. I fully understand why people don't want to expose themselves to that, but without checking in at least once in a while you can lose touch with what's going on, which way the wind's blowing, etc. That goes for geopolitics too, with reading sources that you usually disagree with on principle.
I think Hexbear just flip-flopped based on which campaign was currently being cringe. So, you had a lot of people say Trump was no longer the big wet boi he was when Democrats were calling MAGA weirdos weird and you had a lot of people say it's Joever when Harris's campaign was trying to enlist Wow Twitch streamers.
It would've been cool if we could actually create polls like every single forum since 1998. A simple "who do you think will win the election?" poll that's apparently too much to ask for for a social media site in 2025.
There was a poll on hexbear, people had Kamala Harris winning as the top result, I'll try find it now. People even voted joke answers ahead of Trump.
https://hexbear.net/post/3840240
In general hexbear predictions are almost always wrong, we've been on a roll since 2022.
never once grappling with all the Americans telling them they were extremely wrong
due respect, all I can say is we all have our blind spots, myself included
to be honest I get that uneasy feeling about their global economic perspective when I see their confidently wrong takes on internal American politics, the same way I do when I read a journalist I've thought was pretty savvy writing about something I am professionally familiar with and completely fucking it up
It's okay to be suspicious about MMT
why? it just is. its like saying you should be suspicious of classical physics
I need to read Superimperialism, then I might have enough context for their pessimism but I haven't done the investigation
Pessimism? They thought Harris would win and the Republicans had been abandoned by the bourgeoisie! As much as I hate the Dems that's got to be some measure of optimism, surely.
Clearly I had underestimated how cruel Capital can be. I didn’t expect that they’d rather have Trump for 4 years to discipline the voters who chose to sit out of the election because of the Palestinian issue.
As I said, it’s too early to tell about the fate of the Democrats yet. If a good portion of voters who did not vote for Harris ends up crawling back to the Democrats during the midterms because of how bad Trump has been, then the Dems have essentially won while not having to change their position at all, simply sit back and let Trump do the dirty work for them.
Again, I had been too naive. Capital is far more ruthless even when you think you’ve had a pretty good grasp on them.
oh I guess I was thinking about their grumpiness about the future of China (and to a lesser extent Russia)
We’ll see what happens in the midterms and in 2028. Far too early to say who’s having the last laugh. I suspect the Dems will make a come back sooner than most think.
Well yeah, that is the way the American political see-saw works. Since neither party actually delivers the outcomes voters want (since doing that would require spending money on something outside propping up the financial sector), American voters become disillusioned with whatever party they voted for and either don't vote or cross party lines.
The Democrats will probably get a swing of some progressives that reconsidered their non-voting, but unlikely more than a slim majority in the House.