this post was submitted on 20 Apr 2025
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chapotraphouse
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True, and that uncertainty is something that Drake himself never denied. It’s more of a quick heuristic explanation that outlines the main questions that a search for life would need to answer. I think of it as more of a binary equation that answers: Is there extraterrestrial life or isn’t there? The precise value is not that meaningful.
I think it's a somewhat useful thought experiment for asking why we don't observe EM signals like our own (albeit incomplete re: detectability of far off signals). But it is very anthropocentric so it also serves as a useful object of criticism, as even the questions it asks are probably wrong.