this post was submitted on 29 Apr 2025
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Trump won the election for the liberals more than anyone else.
Nah, the Liberals deserve the bigger credit. I don't necessarily think they could have won without Trump shitting the fan for Conservatives but their actions created the necessary conditions for the win: 1) Drop Trudeau; 2) Don't pick Freeland, pick a white middle age man from the finance industry; 3) Get rid of the consumer carbon pricing; 4) Focus on the economy instead of progressive values. Without any of these, it would have been a CPC win even with Poilievre wearing a MAGA hat.
"We won! What did we win? ... fuck, shit."
What happens when the black hole of an American recession sucks Canada down along with it in another few years?
American liberals played the same game in 2020. They got four years of Biden. Everyone hated it. And then they sent Trump back up into office like '17-'21 never happened.
Carney has a few advantages over Biden: he is actually liked by true Liberals (so far), he's not senile and landed the job just because he had decades in the party (on the contrary, he has that outsider business-man status that the middle class loves), and he has a nationalist movement timed nicely for him.
That said, it's still true that...
if this tariff bullshit intensifies, Canada will face a recession under Carney and the country will turn to a conservative government - one that will open the doors for American imperialism, bails out corporations, and cuts services that would save lives of the people that will end up in the streets after losing their jobs. I find it very unlikely that this minority liberal government would survive a significant economic downturn, regardless of who would be in charge of it.
:-/
:-)
🤮 I have never actually seen a "business-man" candidate that does well on the merits above the office of mayor. Even then, "business guy" mayors tend to be some of the most shamelessly corrupt and despicable people to touch the office.
But I guess he's one-for-three, which is better than Biden.
The nature of liberal politics is knowing you're on a pendulum ride and making the best of whatever time you've got. Far too often, I see liberals insist they can ride the pendulum through the conservative arc by just pretending at conservative politics for a few years and then going back to being liberals again a few years later. Conservatives, by contrast, leap at the chance to inject every right-popular policy they can when they're in office and then scream about obstructionism as they lose popular support.
The consequence of these two strategies executed in cycle is a country that keeps getting ratcheted to the right by degrees. A country - like America - was broadly on board with gay rights and carbon caps and universal public health care and public university education twenty years ago. Now we're obliterating elementary schools, green-lighting coal ash dumping, and hunting transgender people for sport.
If Carney is going to waste the next few years, Canada is going to be even more fucked for his nominal victory than the UK is looking as it goes into a 28% Reform Party cycle.
Indeed. We dodged the bullet but we're still sliding downhill. The time for conservatives is coming, unfortunately. I just hope that the next time the pendulum swings back, we get some electoral reform done and more modern and sturdy guardrails to soften the next round.
Still, I daydream myself into hope and into action. No one knows what's coming long term, so I imagine progress. That's the only way I can function instead of growing apathetic out of despair. Next cycle I'll be here once more, campaigning ABC.