this post was submitted on 18 Jun 2025
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Again, the only possible player that could do that any time soon is blue origin/Amazon.
Stoke Space is working on a fully reusable rocket though, I'm really impressed with their rocket concept, some very smart design choices were made. They do have working hardware and have demonstrated their core engine. But I have no idea how close they are to first launch tests, I expect it will be a while
Your original comment said 2050, which is a long way off. SpaceX's first launch attempt was in 2006, their first successful launch was in 2008, their first successful recovery of a rocket in reusable condition was in 2015, and first reused a rocket in 2017. If they can make progress on that kind of timeline, why wouldn't someone else be able to?
That's a fair point. Keep in mind though, it takes a while to get a whole constellation up in orbit and get all the kinks worked out, Starlink was first usable in 2020. So in total it took them in the area of 14 years from start to finish. It's also worth noting, that nobody in the space industry has really ever been able to move as fast as spaceX, they're something of an anomaly, not the norm.
So could a new company do it in 14 years? Yeah, that's definitely possible. It could happen by 2039, but I wouldn't put money on it. 25 years seems more likely.
We won't live that long.
Not with that attitude!
Arianespace has fallen behind, but they're not out of the picture. They're still by far the largest competitor to SpaceX, and they're aiming for their 7th generation Ariane to be a reusable design.
Arianespace is an Airbus and Safran subsidiary, so it's not like they don't have the engineering oomph behind them.