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this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2023
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Things are not looking good for Republicans next year.
I know, right? These results from OH and VA are giving me some very cautious optimism, but not letting my guard down.
Oh yeah, we still need to fight like hell. But they're too entrenched to do a re-think at this point. Their base is too crazy. They've dug their hole and we have to make sure voters know what they want to do. When voters hear about it, they clearly don't like it.
I'm in suburban Philadelphia, normally a GOP stronghold that counterbalances the deep blue city, especially in municipal elections. Democrats are running the table for school boards and judges. It's very encouraging.
Last night shows me that the NYTime poll about Trump leading everywhere is wildly untrue
I would rather you look at that poll as being a message that those of us who are NOT insane, should not rest. We need to keep pushing for competent people in positions of power in our government.
That is going to take you, me, and everyone that wants the above to vote in every single election from now on.
It's because polling is still done over the phone. The only people I know who pick up unknown numbers are over 60.
We had all kinds of explanations for the polls in 2016, too. This is not over but it’s not going to be a walk in the park.
Most people are not paying attention if there isn’t an election in their state. When we get closer and they realize Trump and a GOP driven national abortion ban is on the menu, polls will hopefully change. Hopefully.
Careful to not conflate Trump's personal popularity and ability to get voters to the polls with other Republicans, even those blessed by Cheeto himself
I wonder how they are conducting those polls.
Most likely cold-calling/robo-calling. Nobody under the age of 45 answers random phone calls
I'm 44 and dont pick up strange numbers for the most part, so thank you for including me in your sample
Biden is, unfortunately, uniquely disliked compared to other Dems. He was buoyed by young voters, who are especially fickle and the most likely to stay home. I remain both worried and uncertain.
It’s seeming (according to data I’ve seen in recent articles) to be that midterms are becoming more favorable to dems due to higher education voter gap between parties. Low engagement voters are the voters who like trump, and they’re the ones that show up more general elections, than in mid terms currently.
So, I’m happy about last night, but I’m cautious to take it as a sign of what to expect next year.