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I happened to be in my mother's house when she called me to look at it live and there was zero mention on CNN of whether or not he would serve time over it. Sentencing in July.
Anyone know likelihood of jail time?
Cohen got jail time for this crime.
This needs to be brought up every damned time this subject comes up. Cohen served time for the exact same crime - so what argument is there that Trump shouldn't?
The American justice system has been successfully boiled down to a pay to play system and it's unfair to not let other rich people go for more serious crimes, but not Trump .
I mean I don't think they would be honest enough to run with that, but it's the only argument I can think of that would be based on an unfortunate truth.
Everyone consciously or subconsciously knows the justice system works differently for different classes. The only reason anyone who leans right actually believes it could be a "witch hunt" is because no one has an iota of faith in the justice system. Sending a "billionaire" to jail is so rare that the possibility of it happening seems suspicious.
I completely agree. I asked what argument there was that he shouldn't, not that he wouldn't.
It takes a lot of balls to send a former and possibly future president to prison. Way more balls than sending his lackay.
Paraphrasing, "We choose to send Trump to prison, not because it is easy, but because it is hard."
Cohen didn't need a secret service detail.
The Guardian are reporting it is unlikely he will see jail time
Edit: it's not a disagree button, it's being widely reported he is unlikely to see jail time. that doesn't mean i think he shouldn't see jail time
Everyone is reporting he won't see jail time, which in my view is giving the court a pass on giving him a light sentence.
In my opinion, Trump gained so much, and could gain so much from a repeat offense, that jail is the only compelling punishment for him. He is unrepentant, and would do it again in a heartbeat.
You are correct, but nevertheless, a court so cowardly they cannot hold him accountable for blatant violations of court orders will not jail him either.
He could never go to a traditional jail, not with the amount of classified information he was exposed to.
He would need a separate area of Leavenworth with no interaction with other humans except the guard and secret service detail unfortunately assigned to him.
Then he has hell to look forward to.
100%, how is this not more significant when people guess whether or not Trump will serve time? Cohen got jail time for this, and he turned himself in, and cooperated.
Trump did nothing redeeming, and he was the guy giving the orders, how is it even conceivable that Trump should be punished less?
Cohen doesn't have a cult of dimwits willing to betray every value they claim to have in order to vote for him, tho.
And a stacked supreme court in his favor
He did not. Cohen pleaded guilty to 5 counts of tax evasion (class B felony), one count of making false statements to a federally insured bank (class C felony), one count of causing an unlawful corporate contribution (class D felony) , one count of making an excessive campaign contribution (class D felony).
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/michael-cohen-pleads-guilty-manhattan-federal-court-eight-counts-including-criminal-tax
Trump was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records (class E felony).
If one is being objective and not paying attention to his former job or publicity, he's a first time offender convicted of non-violent offenses with a business footprint that makes him low risk for probation violation.
He would also place a burden on the penal system if incarcerated, and his current state of having round the clock law enforcement presence further lowers the likelihood that he goes to prison.
On the flip side, he has done a lot to actively antagonize the person who will be mostly in charge of his fate, and he's got a good month to build a body of evidence that says he'll immediately disrespect probation.
So almost certainly not, but it's not as close to zero as you would expect for a former president.
Cohen got prison time for the same exact crime, also a first offense. To my mind, being a former president should make them hold to to a higher standard, not a lesser one.
Cohen was convicted of tax evasion, bank fraud, and campaign finance crimes. Trump was not charged with any of these. So not the same crimes.
I don't recall hearing a lot of evidence that Trump conspired with Cohen to evade Cohen's income taxes, or to lie to Cohen's bank.
I don't think Trump is capable of making illegal campaign contributions to his own campaign. There are no limits on self funding an election campaign in this country.
I would entirely agree. But, the world is what it is, and it might be untenable for the justice system or the judge might decide it creates too many opportunities for everything to go wrong on appeal.
Time will tell though, and July is just around the corner.
What about the risk of recidivism though?
Pretty clear that he will do exactly the same thing again.
Slim chance. It's his first offence (first conviction anyway) and a non violent crime. Can't see the judge jailing him, especially given the logistics involved with the Secret Service having to protect him.
Cohen served time for this exact same crime in the exact same state. I think he was sentenced to 3 years and did 1.5 due to covid early release. That was also his first felony.
It's fully possible he gets jail time.
I need this. I didn't know how much I needed this until now.
Oh, I didn't know that. Fingers crossed then!
Given Trump's age though, I just don't think it's likely - much as I would love to see him behind bars.
Maybe convicted ex presidents shouldn't get secret service protection
I get what you're saying, but I think without that protection it's pretty likely he'd be killed in prison.
They have protective custody for certain inmates that require protection, for example, Epstein.
I dunno. Epstein was pretty high profile (and it might not have worked out great for him, either), but a former president is really high profile. I have no idea how they would handle it, but if we're lucky enough to see it, it'll be quite interesting for sure
I'm not seeing the downside.
True, but he wasn't sentenced to death. We owe all prisoners the same protections.
It's not like they're going to put him with the general population. And USSS agents don't sign up to be in prison.
IIRC, probably the Secret Service will enter a memorandum of understanding with the New York Department of Corrections, and negotiate who and what goes where. Probably means Trump will get a wing of Rikers to himself.
Don't worry, I have full confidence in the Secret Service's ability to keep Trump perfectly safe while he's making license plates!
Ah that's probably true. He's rich and white enough to end up in a resort prison, I'm sure.
Not in solitary confinement (unless he's on suicide watch ofc)
My understanding is that we will see an appeal before sentencing on July 11th. If that is not successful, then he will get anything from a slap on the wrist to jail time. Sentencing is likely going to hinge on if he remains the lead Republican candidate. Jail time is going to have a lot of custom rules and exeptions that we are unprepared for; primarily secret secret protection.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-jury-deliberations-watch-1.7218775 conviction section
AFAIK no one is left
While you are probably right, that is fucking stupid.
Npr reporter said that each count has a maximum of 1 - 4 years in jail but usually served concurrently and the judge apparently already made a comment about jail time is not a guarantee or something. I am betting another useless fine and maybe some probation.
Don't underestimate the effect of "maybe some probation". Having to check in with some probation officer on a regular basis (and probably pee in a cup each time, I'm not sure whether NY mandates that) will be super humiliating for him. Plus, I bet that the period on probation will be much longer than any prison sentence, and will extend through the election.
Plus, in the event he still wins, I doubt NYC really cares. They will keep making him pee in that cup until his probation is over.
Imagine the Biden campaign constantly trying to get interviews with "the Republican candidate's probation officer".
Lolol I didn't think of that. Imagine Trump trying to go to Russia or something as president and his PO says he can't leave the country.
Do you know if he starts his sentence while he appeals or is he gonna get off for the next year or so
I’m not counting on jail time (though I can dream!). Just parroting an oft used law and order conservative catchphrase