Also who's your pick for winner of the arbitrary 4-way american civil war? Personally I'm hoping for the West, but I'm worried Northeast might sneak victory in when nobody's looking
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Well with the west and the south splitting most of the nuke supply and the Midwest being capable of thriving in nuclear winter, it's really anyone's game. The northeast is no longer the manufactory hub it once was. Ultimately though, I think the west is set up to take home the victory with critical support and materials from China. Can't really get that anywhere else too readily.
The Midwest would have quite a few nukes. North Dakota and Kansas holds a large fraction of them.
https://nuclearforces.org/country-profiles/united-states
Plus the West would have most of it's critical infrastructure far away from the border. Much easier to protect your heavy industry when it's 1500 miles away from the fighting. The South and Midwest have relatively vulnerable infrastructure not far from their borders, easy distance to target without having to refuel and less time to intercept any missiles.