chapotraphouse

I think polling is probably (way) off anyway because...

1. I think a significant percentage of people on both sides is lying to pollsters. Trump voters are lying about being "concerned" about Trump being a felon. I think they aren't. Biden voters saying age isn't an issue and they'll vote for him anyway. I think they won't.

2. What sane, rational American able to at least communicate effectively over the phone answers an unknown number in 2024? Pollsters have to sample a gigantic number of people just to get a "representative" sample size. But how can that truly be representative?

About lying to pollsters...

Bradley effect

The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

And Americans have gotten insane in the last 40+ years.