This poll is wild. Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.

Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.

https://subium.com/profile/rickywlmsbong.bsky.social/post/3kvcydtkdos2q

Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News

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[–] queermunist@lemmy.ml 42 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

Prediction: Biden wins (the electoral college while losing the popular vote obvs) and pivots the Democratic Party on a hard right turn because he won with the support of suburban whites and didn't need to attract young voters at all.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 25 points 5 months ago (1 children)

He won with the support of suburban whites and didn't need to attract young voters at all.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

[–] Meh@hexbear.net 10 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Ah fuck, I had scrubbed that shit from my mind. Death to Amerikkka

[–] ElChapoDeChapo@hexbear.net 2 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

Same lol

Remembering it is like remembering some horrific truth beyond human compression, real eldlitch horror shit

[–] Dirt_Owl@hexbear.net 40 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (2 children)

You should treat polls done my the ruling class media not at face value, but rather as "Why does Fox News want it's viewers to see this?"

[–] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 32 points 5 months ago

I'm not sure about that, Fox polls have actually always been fairly accurate historically. But it's still worth taking with a grain of salt like all polls.

[–] Red_Sunshine_Over_Florida@hexbear.net 18 points 5 months ago

Get them even more riled up to vote.

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 31 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (2 children)

a few things on this:

-don't underestimate Normal Whites - they will vote for biden over trump. they are not as loud as MTG chuds but there are more of them than the most rabid chuds. Normal Whites do not really give a shit about trans bathrooms, child sacrifice and retvrning to tradition. those are things for internet people with brain poisoning.

-the american electorate literally does not give a flying fuck about foreign policy or the rest of the world. biden's failures in project ukraine, genocide in gaza, the humiliation of the fall of kabul in 2021 - none of that means literally anything to the electorate at large. people like to think that maybe dubya was voted out over iraq, but that absolutely is not true, his problem was the economy (stupid). do not make the mistake of thinking that american voters give even the slightest bit of a shit about foreign policy. it is a distant number 15 on priority lists compared to the economy, immigration, etc.

-related to the above, for corporate interests, homeowners, people who own stocks the economy is doing fine. the line has gone up a lot under biden, especially recently. yes these gains are not evenly shared among the populace, but the people who gain them are far more likely to vote than poors anyway.

[–] GVAGUY3@hexbear.net 15 points 5 months ago (1 children)

don't underestimate Normal Whites

Yeah, I've been thinking this since 2022. I can see a situation where Biden wins, but I think it depends on how weird the GOP gets in the general election. I still think it is the GOP's to lose.

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 8 points 5 months ago

I think it's 60/40 in favour of Biden. Trump isn't new anymore and he's proven to be a loser. I don't feel strongly about this prediction though. I don't spend time looking at polls anymore.

[–] MaeBorowski@hexbear.net 6 points 5 months ago (1 children)

people like to think that maybe dubya was voted out over iraq, but that absolutely is not true, his problem was the economy (stupid).

Dubya wasn't voted out. He got 2 terms. Or am I misunderstanding what you were getting at there?

[–] Darth_Reagan@hexbear.net 2 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

Maybe they messed up the history, or they're indicating Bush stole the second election.

[–] nat_turner_overdrive@hexbear.net 20 points 5 months ago (2 children)

Meanwhile, Biden is looking STRONG

[–] Des@hexbear.net 14 points 5 months ago

just a stutter!

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 9 points 5 months ago

Is that real?

I hate the MSM. They accurately say the GOP makes fakes and manipulates footage. But the MSM won't make footage like that available even with 10m of context nobody gives a fuck about. People in the Youtube comments would say "Jump to 2:17 for the best brain fart. 5:03 and 8:07 are kinda boring but I still liked them." and the MSM outlet would get very pissed off.

[–] red_stapler@hexbear.net 16 points 5 months ago (1 children)

The debates will probably flip this again.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 17 points 5 months ago

I can't wait for those. Their brains will leak out of their ears. After the debates both parties will claim victory. The GOP will lie and say only Biden had leakage. Yuge leakage. The biggest leakage in the history of leakage and... The dem's lie will be more modest. They'll say Biden had minor leakage but Trump had massive leakage and Project 2025 and Trump is fascism and God Bless These United States of America and blah blah blah.

[–] Leon_Grotsky@hexbear.net 16 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

Just tonight talked to my dad who voted Trump in the past, and he lamented Nikki Haley was out of the race.

I subscribe to the "Joe Biden is gonna win electorally, but not with the popular vote" line; but Trump doesn't seem to have the broad republican appeal he had in the past, and I guess normie Republicans are feeling the post-Bernie Blues from my experience.

[–] Black_Mald_Futures@hexbear.net 10 points 5 months ago

There is no way, I'm sorry, I'm like 90% sure Trump is going to win this shit. All of the enthusiasm for him in his rabid voters is real crazy people energy and all Biden has is whoever MSNBC can brainwash into thinking electing him will save America from fascism, and the venn diagram between those and the people already voting Biden is a circle

[–] Red_Sunshine_Over_Florida@hexbear.net 10 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Why? How?

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 14 points 5 months ago (1 children)

It's just one poll and numbers always go up and down. If ~1 month from now the numbers are similar or Biden has gotten stronger - I'll pay attention.

[–] Red_Sunshine_Over_Florida@hexbear.net 11 points 5 months ago

It's national polling too. What about the swing states?

[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 9 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Everything I've heard is that Biden keeps hitting new lows, so this poll might be an outlier

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 14 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

I think polling is probably (way) off anyway because...

I think a significant percentage of people on both sides is lying to pollsters. Trump voters are lying about being "concerned" about Trump being a felon. I think they aren't. Biden voters saying age isn't an issue and they'll vote for him anyway. I think they won't.
What sane, rational American able to at least communicate effectively over the phone answers an unknown number in 2024? Pollsters have to sample a gigantic number of people just to get a "representative" sample size. But how can that truly be representative?

About lying to pollsters...

Bradley effect

The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

And Americans have gotten insane in the last 40+ years.

[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 5 points 5 months ago

The polls were mostly accurate in 2022. They're reliable predictors of election results for the most part.

[–] Hestia@hexbear.net 8 points 5 months ago

Republicans are more accepting of Biden now.

Hmmmm... wonder if it's because of all the brown people he's killing.

[–] Voidance@hexbear.net 6 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

The debates are gonna be crazy tbh. I think Biden will probably win if he doesn’t have some kind of major malfunction on live tv, but that’s a big if, especially if Trump really tries to go after him

[–] GVAGUY3@hexbear.net 6 points 5 months ago

I will reiterate: I don't think Biden is out of the count yet.

[–] spacecorps_writer@hexbear.net 5 points 5 months ago (1 children)

This election will probably be similar to the last ones. IIRC, virtually the same number of people always vote for the Republican presidential candidate. It's just the number of people voting for Democrats that fluctuates. My guess is that Biden will once again win the popular vote, but that he has a 50-50 chance of losing enough swing states to lose to Trump.

Anecdotally, almost no one is enthusiastic about either candidate. I live in a low-population (irrelevant) rural swing state, and I've seen a few Trump flags and stickers, and exactly one car with Biden stickers, and only one Biden yard sign. (I also spend several hours driving around every workday, FML, so I've had a decent look at a rural purple county, as well as a small city that is packed with young white libs and pride flags.) A few months ago I found myself taking a class with a bunch of chuds, and I was shocked at how they were just not that into Trump. Like, the older ones were going to vote for him—one said that he did "an awesome job" as president and that the president "should be a businessman"—but when he got indicted a few months ago (or whatever the fuck happened), they were concerned. "If only he would keep his mouth shut!" It's similar IMO to Democrats being unenthusiastic about Biden yet still showing up to vote for him in droves. The younger dudes I was with were definitely reactionary but I can't recall them expressing any support for Trump of any kind.

Biden got a lot of votes from young folks in the last election, but they/we mostly live in cities and blue states and therefore do not matter. I do think that foreign disasters matter and that "the economy" is only working for people who own a lot of stocks / houses, and that younger folks who express any enthusiasm for Biden risk losing friends. We still have over five months left until election day, and basically every day of Biden's presidency (like Trump's) has been a catastrophe, so we have to see. My theory is that the funniest realistic result is usually what happens in these elections, even if both Biden and Trump are genocidal fascists (redundant) and not funny to the millions who have died because of them. The funniest result would be...I don't know. Trump winning? Trump losing? Both of them dying during a debate (godwilling)?

[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 4 points 5 months ago

Funniest result would be Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college, so the New Maga Army tries to monkey-wrench the electoral college.

[–] Assian_Candor@hexbear.net 4 points 5 months ago

Feels outlierish to me just given what we've seen consistently for the past several months and I can't point to something either candidate has done that would be a cause for such a shift. Unless the conviction really matters that much to people, which I guess it might? A complete collapse would be a good way to describe such a shift but again, where's the cause. The economy is still shit and worsening, Israel and Ukraine are both disasters, big rightward turn in Europe, I just don't see it.

[–] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 2 points 5 months ago

I legit can't tell who's gonna win

[–] FALGSConaut@hexbear.net 1 points 5 months ago

I've said it before that I'm not bothering to even think about who is going to win the election until October. So much can happen between then and now, and Americans have the memories of goldfish.