This poll is wild. Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.
Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.
https://subium.com/profile/rickywlmsbong.bsky.social/post/3kvcydtkdos2q
Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
This election will probably be similar to the last ones. IIRC, virtually the same number of people always vote for the Republican presidential candidate. It's just the number of people voting for Democrats that fluctuates. My guess is that Biden will once again win the popular vote, but that he has a 50-50 chance of losing enough swing states to lose to Trump.
Anecdotally, almost no one is enthusiastic about either candidate. I live in a low-population (irrelevant) rural swing state, and I've seen a few Trump flags and stickers, and exactly one car with Biden stickers, and only one Biden yard sign. (I also spend several hours driving around every workday, FML, so I've had a decent look at a rural purple county, as well as a small city that is packed with young white libs and pride flags.) A few months ago I found myself taking a class with a bunch of chuds, and I was shocked at how they were just not that into Trump. Like, the older ones were going to vote for him—one said that he did "an awesome job" as president and that the president "should be a businessman"—but when he got indicted a few months ago (or whatever the fuck happened), they were concerned. "If only he would keep his mouth shut!" It's similar IMO to Democrats being unenthusiastic about Biden yet still showing up to vote for him in droves. The younger dudes I was with were definitely reactionary but I can't recall them expressing any support for Trump of any kind.
Biden got a lot of votes from young folks in the last election, but they/we mostly live in cities and blue states and therefore do not matter. I do think that foreign disasters matter and that "the economy" is only working for people who own a lot of stocks / houses, and that younger folks who express any enthusiasm for Biden risk losing friends. We still have over five months left until election day, and basically every day of Biden's presidency (like Trump's) has been a catastrophe, so we have to see. My theory is that the funniest realistic result is usually what happens in these elections, even if both Biden and Trump are genocidal fascists (redundant) and not funny to the millions who have died because of them. The funniest result would be...I don't know. Trump winning? Trump losing? Both of them dying during a debate (godwilling)?
Funniest result would be Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college, so the New Maga Army tries to monkey-wrench the electoral college.