As the article says, she is only level in key swing states. While 538 does give her good chances overall, they also gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning. It is closer than it should be so make sure to get it and vote and make sure that your friends do too.
this post was submitted on 30 Aug 2024
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they also gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning
And before people go off about polling and such let me reframe 70% in anticipation: would you play Russian Roulette with a 3 barrel gun?
I think a 10 chamber revolver with 3 random bullets (swing states) is a better analogy, and gets you to 70% I think, instead of 66.666.
I don’t want to play either though. So I’m going to vote against racism and fascism like we all should.
I was approximating for simplicity/emphasis lol
Nate Silver notes that while her projected popular vote share has increased over the last ten days, her odds of winning the electoral college has actually gone down slightly, to about 47%. This indicates that a lot of the support she has gained has disproportionately come from states she was already likely to win.
Basically, until we get more data, we can see a small convention bounce in the polling, which typically fades. If her battleground-state numbers reflect that temporary bounce, then she's even with Trump right now and may potentially fade back to slightly behind in the coming weeks.
The general message is this: Harris has momentum, but that doesn't change the fact that even with momentum, it's basically a dead heat. Despite all the celebratory gusto recently, at best she's one mistake away from losing. At worst, she's on track to execute a flawless campaign that still ends with her winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college. No one should be breathing easily.
And that's without factoring in all the voter suppression/purges and other state-level activities of the Republicans to win battleground states, which the Democrats have done basically fuck-all about.
Hoping the Republicans don't do illegal and/or unethical things to win is a losing strategy. This is a candidate that tried to have his VP hanged for not subverting the entire democratic process.
All true. I feel like the Arlington scandal has legs, though.
To decent people, maybe. These are trump supporters.
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Doesn't matter. Go out and vote.
She's a former prosecutor. He's a compulsive liar, misogynist and racist former reality TV star with dementia who isn't used to being told to wait his turn before he can speak.
He better pray to every god he can come up with.
Harris didn't do well in 2020 (edit: 2019) though. She was very uncharismatic. To her credit, she seems to have worked on that a lot since then.
She clearly struggled with the primary but has learned a lot in 5 years and a general is a very different ballgame.
She's also the nominee with all the DNC money and backing. She will have the best consultants, advisors, resources, etc, and she strikes me as the sort of person who listens to constructive feedback. In the primary, she was working against a lot of the best people in the Democratic party. She now has everyone behind her pushing forward, which is entirely different from trying to pull out ahead of a pack.
In the primary, she was on stage with Biden and Bernie and Warren and Klobuchar and Buttigieg and Yang and Beto and Booker and Castro and Gabbard and at least three other people nobody remembers. Some of those people are better speakers, some are better debaters, some have better records, some are better leaders, some have better ideas, and almost all of them are not entirely batshit insane.
She now only has to debate Donald Trump. She is a better speaker, better debater, better leader, has a better record, has better ideas, and will be the only candidate on stage who isn't entirely batshit insane. She will also be the only candidate on stage that isn't a racist. The only one who isn't a convicted felon. The only one who isn't a rapist. The only candidate who didn't incite an assault on the Capitol building to stop an election. The only candidate who isn't misogynist. The only candidate who hasn't sold state secrets to an enemy government. The only candidate who hasn't committed a felony at Arlington National Cemetery.
Plus she likes dogs.
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I wouldn’t say Trump has much charisma left either.
I agree, plus people are generally tired of him. He rode a transient wave in 2016 but things are different now.
Trump came very close to winning in 2020. Progress is good, but we have a very long way to go, and an alarming number of Americans who still support him.
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Yeah but he has a cult behind him who takes every one of his words as gospel
While that's all true, they're functionally tied. Think about that.
A large percentage of the United States are really really fucking stupid. It's alarming.
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As long as Kamala actually provides details on how she plans to solve problems she will already have won. Trump refuses to explain anything he plans on doing, probably because he knows it will either show that he is in it for power, or that he doesn't have a clue what he is doing. Probably both. His only strategy is to insult his opponent, and I think he is struggling to find attacks on Kamala that will stick. She's not as easy of a target as Biden is.
Thing is... his approach to campaigning has been consistent since 2016, and he won that election. Just saying "he refuses to explain his platform, he can't possibly win" is a mistake. The reality is that the people who vote for him don't care. I don't really understand what it is they see in him, but it's clear that it has nothing to do with how intelligent or articulate he is.
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Why “praying”? He’s still statistically in a dead heat and less behind than either 2016 or 2020. Vote. Vote because your democracy depends upon it.
'Tots and pears folks.
'Tots and pears.
The Harris camp is in a good spot, but I still have band-aids from the wounds that Biden left after he was picking his tongue up off the floor at the last debate. I was optimistic until he royally fucked that up and before the debate his supporters thought he would wipe the floor with Trump.
I have hope, but I am cautiously aware of the fact that Trump sways voters with his bullshit. Kamala can fuck this up too as much as I don't want to see that.
If his team were actually smart they'd realize that lightning won't strike twice and keep Trump's mouth shut and keep him far away from the debate stage. Kamala will rip him apart in September, no doubt in my mind.
The only reason he didn't get a ton of criticism for his insanity at the last debate is because Biden was somehow worse and distracted everybody from Trump's failing mental health and complete lack of a plan of action to fix the problems he rants and raves about all day and night.
Lol Biden wasn't worse. Trump was worse and it wasn't even in the same ball park. Biden was just surprising.
Just because you're used to it doesn't mean it wasn't objectively and obviously worse.
No, that's just the only strategy they'll admit to. They have the supplemental strategy of taking over the election apparatus in swing states like Georgia, so even if Harris wins more votes there they can ratfuck it in Trump's favor anyway.
Has we won a debate?
Depends on your point of view. Either he won the last one or Biden lost it. But, now the script is flipped and he's an old weirdo. 😄
Don't worry fam, I gotchu. Regards, God.
Don't worry, the media will handicap him so hard he cannot possibly lose unless he literally shits himself more than once.
I dunno, if the debate pivots on a choice of dying by shark or electric car, or on the late, great Hannibal Lector, Trump's got it in the bag.
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