Thanks, Forbes. I feel dumber for having read this. Why would I care what a bunch of illegal gamblers and nonvoting crypto-bros think about the election?
this post was submitted on 02 Nov 2024
65 points (85.7% liked)
News
23305 readers
3709 users here now
Welcome to the News community!
Rules:
1. Be civil
Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.
2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.
Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.
3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.
Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.
4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.
Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.
5. Only recent news is allowed.
Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.
6. All posts must be news articles.
No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.
7. No duplicate posts.
If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.
8. Misinformation is prohibited.
Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.
9. No link shorteners.
The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.
10. Don't copy entire article in your post body
For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Exactly a bunch of idiots who have gambling problems highlight the need for mental healthcare not a flex.
Also in the article.
48%. That’s the odds FiveThirtyEight’s poll-based model gives a Harris win, compared to 52% for Trump. Other poll-based models indicate a closer split than betting markets do, and the Economist’s favors Trump by a 51% to 48% margin.
Polymarket is being manipulated.
https://gizmodo.com/new-research-claims-polymarket-is-full-of-wash-trading-2000518668
Is trump the market favorite because only people with weird gambling addictions care about any of these betting odds, and those folks overlap the trump supporters circle in the venn diagram?
Also because rich people who think burning money on horseshit market manipulation is a good "investment".
This was my first thought too, so I was curious if there were any stats correlating gambling and political affiliation. From a brief look, I found sports betting seemed to not correlate to party affiliation. [Source]
I'm not sure if you can extrapolate that election betting wouldn't either.
Trump is the market favorite because some rich dipshit was ballot stuffing. Ignore the market betting.
It feels very weird that you can gamble on election results.
Like, casinos have deep pockets, lobbyists, and are in bed with politicians. It feels like it would be easier for them to influence an election than, say, sporting events.
Not to mention that providing odds for the election results is also something of an endorsement for who they perceive to be a favourable party.
Most of these bettors are ppl who want to makeoney in the worst case scenario. Like well if trump wins at least I've got 500 in my pocket
Maybe I should bet on Trump for this reason
If you don't know how betting odds or polymarket work this information may seem interesting.
Question. Considering Trump is not going to win the popular vote... couldn't you just arbitrage these odds. Kamala +145 to 170 (depending on the day) Republican win president, Democrat win popular vote +225 to 240?