askchapo

This is like asking when the socialist revolution will happen in the Qing dynasty. And as history showed us, the answer was never because the Qing dynasty had to fall before the old Confucian-Daoist-Legalist-Buddhist ideological superstructure that had served China so well for over a millennia was broken, creating an ideological void that was filled by the May Fourth Movement, which was the seed that eventually became the CPC.

If you're asking about a socialist revolution within the landmass currently occupied by the settler colonial entity known as the United States, I mean it's socialism or barbarism. Barbarism will be either of the ecofascist variety, the nuclear wasteland variety, or the climate catastrophe variety. Assuming the US doesn't get glassed by Russia or China in a future world war, most likely, the US will be balkanized into various successor states with a possible rump state that is still internationally recognized as the US. Successor states that have strong relations with anti-imperialist countries or arise from national liberation struggles led by the Indigenous and other internally colonized peoples will have a softish landing and be less fucked by climate change while successor states without those will spend their last days in completely depraved white supremacist Christofascism before getting wiped out by climate change.

I don't think a revolution is likely to happen until the US itself is basically beaten by the rest of the world. I think it's likely the US is headed into a period of barbarism and humiliation before we see anything like a socialist revolution. The deteriorating conditions and the federal government's complete abandonment of governing could, and i think will, provide the pressure that will force peoole to overcome atomization. Atomization is the greatest impediment to socialism right now. It is so deeply ingrained that it is frankly going to have to be beaten out of people by experiencing a bit of the horror the US has been inflicting since before its founding. This combined with the weakening of US global power and the rise in power and legitimacy (in Westoid eyes) of the PRC is going to make socialism look like a winner to enough people to start things moving toward genuine socialist revolution.

The only things that upsets my projection is climate change, i can't really account for how its going to disrupt things, how quickly, when or where in the specific ways that ots going to happen. The other is the US doing a first strike, which could happen and would obviously be devastating.

Never

Never. The closest you'd get in the US is Nazbol shit. Literqlly too much racism for anything else.

It wont happen with the US in its current form. Climate change is absolutely the only hope now. Ideals such as American exceptionalism are key parts that can't be changed. American democracy is very close to a real religion and its not subject to external pressure from other countries or cultures.

The only way forward is destroying the very fabric of American life, ideals and society in a way that forces specially the younger generation to realize they must change the world otherwise they'll die rather soon. However even that is of questionable hope, younger generations are already disillusioned today. Everyone already understands they'll never own a home or even retire. Humanity as a whole is already behaving like frogs in the boiling water. Everyone knows of the disaster or realize something is going wrong, everyone is unhappy and miserable, yet there is no alternative, ever.

Sadly though we only have a few years left, none of this will actualy happen anyway because people will think of the shortest path to survival. Ecofascism and expansion of American influence while everyone else gets crushed or do their own little bit of carving up the global south for themselves(BRICS is somewhat like this).

So I'd say it wont ever happen, but if it could happen, climate change seems like the only real strong enough force to change American society to the core. However even assuming that I also can't jump to wishful thinking that humanity will survive climate change and we will emerge as communists as a result, rather the opposite realy so idk.

2217 at this rate.

Because at that point the USA will likely not exist, and the centuries of reactionary society will hopefully be weakened. 21st century? Seems too far off, but I'd think it would only happen at the collapse of their empire, so maybe this century? idk there would be a massive fascist/liberal reaction against any mass movement for the working class.

Domestic proletariat seizing the state? Without any discontinuities like world war or climate change or balkanization, 2150 at the very earliest, but possibly never.

Proletarian elements establishing stealth enclaves that make the details of the government much less relevant? This coming decade.

I know which one of these I'm aiming for.

It's an exercise in futility to predict revolutions. Lenin didn't expect a recognition in his lifetime in 1917. History moves fast enough so any numbers in this thread are analy sourced at best.