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The world would have to look so unrecognizable for a Socialist revolution to succeed in the center of global capitalism, saying any bounded period of time is really just pulling numbers out of nowhere.
I personally believe there are at least 3 long term requirements for this event to happen: dedollarization, end of neo-coloniasm, and climate collapse. Capitalism cannot survive these, and they're coming within the next century and a half or so (climate collapse will happen in half that time and inevitably bring about the others). In that time, though, we might literally just be extinct from nuclear Holocaust and mass starvation.
You think climate collapse is a necessary requirement for socialism in the core?
I don't think it's an absolute requirement, but I think capitalism exhausting its own resource and ecological foundations is just as fundamental a contradiction as the exploitation of labor. I think as conditions presently stand, climate collapse will precede other major turning points in the undoing of imperialism.
I personally think environmental collapse would make it more difficult to keep the periphery in line. Possibly resulting in a recession in the abilities and scope of the state.
The countryside surrounds the city. Finance capital can only sustain itself as long as the base of the supply chain keeps producing the food and raw resources that they collect rent on, as well as the vast majority of labor power which sits in the periphery; environmental collapse threatens this process of extraction at its core. Capitalism will not necessarily be eradicated as an immediate consequence of environmental collapse but I think that it will need to go through some transformational change, akin to the grave acceleration of imperialism that happened in the 1970s but in the opposite direction.
In January 1917, Lenin thought the revolution would not happen in his lifetime. Conditions were very different then, but it's a good reminder that life is unpredictable.
We of the older generation may not live to see the decisive battles of this coming revolution. But I can, I believe, express the confident hope that the youth which is working so splendidly in the socialist movement of Switzerland, and of the whole world, will be fortunate enough not only to fight, but also to win, in the coming proletarian revolution.
https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1917/jan/09.htm
I wonder how pessimistic Lenin would have been if he knew about Vaush.
The kind Vladimir Ilyich would have funny clown hammered everyone here.
People like Vaush have always existed. Lenin had to live at the same time as Eduard Bernstein and Kautsky (to a lesser extent)
The Kautsky comparison always gets brought up but Kautsky actually read Marx and wasn't a pedophile.
You got me there
yeh even the losers that the old marxists clowned on were more well read than most "left wingers" today
He would have given him the Kautsky treatment and dedicate a chapter long dunk in state and revolution to him
Damn, so he at least saw young people be revolutionary. Most people younger than me that I meet are fascist or soc dems.
Only after the United States has ceased to be in its current form, whether by civil war or invasion and occupation. Those are the things I think we can expect in our lifetimes. I’m hoping it’s the latter, I’d much rather live in territory controlled by China than some Christian nationalist militia
This from every direction:
It won't. America will stop being America first.
The US will slowly receded into the periphery, like Britain after WWII. It will grow incredibly more nationalistic between now and then. I think the military interventionism will start receding as well. It will become a tax haven and investment center for the financialization of industry in other countries. US citizen who want revolution will just leave and go to AES countries. As the monsters US capitalism created keep grinding their poor down, the wealthier reactionaries from those countries will immigrate to the US. We'll get some unholy union of foreign born, multiracial striver ghouls from other countries making allies with domestic racists versus a wholly white and affluent liberal enclave. Nobels will have a little civil war as a treat.
As the climate issue becomes the forefront contradiction, the US-World contradiction will disappear. While China and other countries are fighting to save the species, the US will be a joke of a backwater shithole full of diseased and dying royals.
This was my answer as well, thanks for saving me the time.
I think one of the steps that would accelerate this is some sort of balkanization/secession/separatism, probably in the literal corners of the country. But that's still after our lifetimes (yes I saw the post upthread about lenin making this same mistake)
I think it's possible for some states to say "we're done with you holding us back, we're moving on without you". But, of course, if you're splitting off you're no longer part of the US.
It must cease to be the USA long before any part of it can become socialist.
These are necessarily simultaneous developments
I don't think any of us are going to know when it'll happen. Mao and the Chinese communists started out with like 17 people, grew to a few hundred, were obliterated back to 20 something, and this was all just 15 years or so before they took power.
The July 26th movement in Cuba went from around 3000 people in 1953 to about 150 over a year after the failed attack on Moncada Barracks, then 6 years later in 1959 they had seized the state.
Literally no one predicted the USSR would collapse in August of 1991. So it can be fun to speculate on things but there are so many parts that the best attitude to have is to be ready for anything and stay organized right now.
The resource usage of human civilization has arrived at an important inflection point, and so I think the next century will see much more change than the last one. The end of USA's hegemony is a necessary precondition for a socialist revolution, and I don't think the USA can maintain it for another century... so I can't help but come to the uncomfortable conclusion that my own material conditions are going to get a lot worse within my lifetime, and certainly for my children's. If it's going to happen, I think it's going to happen sooner than we think, just because of the pressure cooker the world is in.
2040s at the absolute earliest assuming a catastrophic collapse of the empire that leads to widespread economic misery spreading even to the PMC class. Dedollarization must occur. Empire must fail to expand and turn inward, the material conditions must deteriorate enough and people in the core must overcome their inculcated atomization to organize enough.
Most likely much later than that, latter half of this century. Right now we're turning solidly towards more reactionary politics, sacrificing trans people, doing racism against Russians and Asians, pushing back on the notion that women are people, etc and this has been a trend going on before Trump's win by the way though obviously that gives liberals an excuse to continue and accelerate it. Assuming they fail to contain China, fail to subjugate Russia, and China achieves its own goals in the late 2040s or 2050 for a modern socialist society and a rejuvenated nation then as much as they try Americans will begin to learn of how much better things are in China and though the brainworms of individualism, the hyper-atomization of society and so on will keep things in check for a while if living conditions continue to deteriorate for enough people it has to happen eventually.
Non-zero even substantial risk that nuclear war happens first and they end the world rather than allowing their hegemony to slip and socialists to win.
Also exists a risk that climate change comes to bat and does the US empire a solid by hitting most of the world in the latter half of this century so much harder that the US can continue on entirely off importing the most desperate climate refugees in the world and exploiting them as an underclass while using its relative insulation between two oceans and its good farmland and other natural resources to thrive while other nations suffer and capitalism could continue into next century easily while China struggles on regardless.
Fact is though we're in a life or death struggle here. The west knows it and will do everything. If they can create some sort of technology that allows them to adequately suppress Chinese nuclear response they'll launch on China and wipe them out without hesitation to usher in barbarism. So let us hope China in fact gets the technology to check-mate and neutralize US nukes much sooner and either wipes the floor with the US in a war or prevents it ever coming to that as even in a conventional war lots of good Chinese comrades would die.
Also exists a risk that climate change comes to bat and does the US empire a solid by hitting most of the world in the latter half of this century so much harder that the US can continue on entirely off importing the most desperate climate refugees in the world and exploiting them as an underclass while using its relative insulation between two oceans and its good farmland and other natural resources to thrive while other nations suffer and capitalism could continue into next century easily while China struggles on regardless.
This would require reproletarization and reindustrialization. My personal belief is that US finance capital has rendered the domestic economy thoroughly incapable of sustaining industrial growth, it has simply created so much rent that expanding a vast supply chain across the US (in labor intensive industry no less) has become impossible. I think that when the situation reaches this point, there will either have to come another transformative moment in the history of capitalism, or its definite end.
When the treats stop flowing.
After the periphery has broken its chains and has the west under sustained pressure, maybe. I just don't see mass internal defections happening without a tangible show of power from external socialist movements.
never, nuclear war will happen first if not climate change induced disasters.
before europe
reason: europe's is more sustainabel, like a exploding balloon with the pussy open a teeny bit to let some air out while the US's is completely shut
with the pussy open a teeny bit to let some air out
say what now
I don't see it. Europe is vassalized and totally subservient to the whims of US capital. European capitalists won't outlast US Empire because they'll be up next in the chopping block after Israel, the US would reduce Europe to the ashes Communism was born in previously before it allows itself to die.
I'm curious: if English isn't your first language, do you call the opening of a balloon the pussy in your language?
I'd say after they lose the war to China (if it even happens), absolutely anything is possible. Probably like Germany in the 1920's, where it could go both ways. Either the working class gets out of it's own ass and starts to organize, while also managing to diminish the already omnipresent right wing influence, or they simply get caught with their pants down and mowed down like the Spartacists. Only time will tell.
Nobody can know, there's some likely prerequisites (like the general collapse of an American led world order) but at the end of the day none of us are Nostradamus.
tomorrow at 5 o'clock. Please bring snacks.
Far sooner than we think. As soon as we start believing that it is possible. It also won’t be all at once, it and it must start somewhere. We have work to do comrades.
after the empire collapses and after the failure of the fascist regime that takes power after the collapse
In or about I think it was the summer of 2051 in my future fiction project. In the present day we're seeing in real time the collapse of US hegemony overseas; by the late 2030s internal conflicts within the USA's bourgeoisie about how to save the empire, end up causing a second civil war, triggering mass flight from the USA primarily to Europe and Australasia; the 2040s then see many of those who left the USA during the war returning to work in postwar reconstruction, the USA's relevance abroad completely dead and buried, and the experiences of these returning refugees leaving them thoroughly disillusioned. This is what allows for the emergence of a revolutionary industrial proletariat in the USA, with enough strength to end the bourgeois dictatorship once and for all.
Sent from Mdewakanton Dakota lands / Sept. 29 1837
Treaty with the Sioux of September 29th, 1837
"We Will Talk of Nothing Else": Dakota Interpretations of the Treaty of 1837
Never
I'm more on the side of Maoist third-worldism. The Great Satan is the bad guy. Sure, the bourgeoisie is loyal to their class first and in the event I'm proven wrong they'd jump ship, but by and large it cannot fail because the US government is the ultimate vehicle against socialism. Global south countries will have to liberate first, and hopefully BRICS with China being the ringleader can form it into a tool for socialism with Cuba joining up.
As far as my information will tell me, the best case scenario for socialism in burgerland is if colonized people rise up and form an opposing state. But as others have said, the US simply would be something else entirely.
Never. Republicans are openly fascist and the Democrats don't want to admit that they're fascist. The rest of America isn't strong enough to do anything or doesn't care enough. The US is going to implode on itself.