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So what the fuck did the Israeli government think was going to happen? Whatever the result this is going to be ruinous to both countries, they're just pounding each other.

You can't just eat city blocks being destroyed and continue. Populations get mad, building is easier at peace, soldiers want to help their families etc.

I mean ww2 showed that bombing campaigns don't win wars but they do beggar nations. Are they banking on a martial plan style bailout? The usa is not in the same position economically but I suppose the damage is relatively limited vs Europe.

Haifa is home to Israel's largest port, Israel's largest refinery, and is generally the most important industrial city in Israel. The majority of its domestically produced jet fuel comes from the BAZAN refinery in the port.

Quick thoughts on the conflict so far:

Iranian ballistic missiles and their response is about expected. The ballistic missiles with the range to hit Israel have a large variance in accuracy, and have to be launched in large numbers to saturate the Israeli/US Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD). Of these missiles with the range to hit Israel, those solid fueled ballistic missiles with advanced Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicles (Fattah 1/Kheibar Shekan series) are a minority of the arsenal, and those with dedicated electro optical terminal guidance (Qassem Basir), are an extreme minority. The majority of the arsenal is their liquid fueled Qadr/Emad/Shahab-3, and solid fueled Sejjil missiles, and Haj Qassem missiles with less sophisticated MaRVs. Because of the variance in accuracy and saturation required to defeat BMD, counterforce targeting (targeting military assets) is not possible. We saw this during Operation True Promise II. So Iran has made the expected move up the escalation ladder and switched to countervalue (civilian) targeting, bombing targets in Tel Aviv, Haifa, etc.

Israeli military capabilities are about as expected, but the scale of the assault is unexpected. We knew that Iran's air defence was comprised by previous Israeli attacks, and we knew that the integration of all the various systems into one network was not as good as previously thought. We knew that Israel could use Syria and Iraq as a staging ground for air attacks after the fall of Assad. We know that Israel has advanced aircraft and stand off and stand in munitions. However the scale of Israeli incursions into Iranian airspace, without direct US involvement, is surprising. Establishing air superiority 150-200km inside of Iran (with reference to the Iraq border) within 48 hours, and then attempting to open a permanent corridor to Tehran, with no known losses in aircraft so far, is unexpected.

However, neither side is really winning on a strategic level. Without direct US involvement, it will be very difficult for Israel to establish air superiority over all of Iran and hit the second and third lines of missile bases that launch missiles at Israel. It will also be very difficult to damage underground nuclear facilities via conventional means. Both Israel and Iran know this. This is why Iran has not struck US military bases. This is why Israel is desperate to get the US involved. If Israel cannot hit the second and third line of missile bases, Iran can continue to launch missiles at Israel. If the US gets involved, this will change, and Iran's safe zone of operations in Eastern Iran will be comprised.

And to just briefly talk about the Freedom Flotilla at the start of the thread before things rev up - I don't really have any take that hasn't already been expressed in the previous megathread; it was obviously a symbolic mission and I imagine everybody taking part in it is and was aware of that. Obviously the incident isn't totally over and there's plenty of opportunities for Israel to do despicable things to those who took part, so there's no real conclusions for me to draw yet.

My expectation is that Israel treating them "well" (as opposed to doing what they usually do to civilians and bombing them to pieces, at least) will only be a "propaganda W" for those who are already convinced that Israel is good and Muslims and Arabs are subhuman - that is, most Western governments - and that everybody who actually opposes Israel will maintain their opposition. If anybody is brought over to the pro-Israel side because they gave sandwiches to Greta Thunberg (while, miles away, people are starving to death in concentration camps) then they a) have the brain of an actual two-year-old infant and b) were not remotely committed to even symbolic resistance to Israel, let alone material resistance.

And to be honest, even if everybody on the ship was killed, I still wouldn't have expected that there would be a meaningful, long-term change in policy by any Western government. They'd have acted as if they were very angry at Israel and "consider if they should keep sending aid" and then keep doing it anyway in a few weeks once most of the immediate emotion had died down. Israel is just way too important to the imperial core for the deaths of their own civilians to matter to them much. That is not to say that I think the mission was a bad idea, because it wasn't. It was another little vector of pressure onto Israel, and lots of little vectors (and a few big ones, courtesy of Hamas, Ansarallah, Hezbollah, and Iran) can combine into some massive constraints, even if the impact of each individual vector is hard to quantify in the eventual result.

Israeli Foreign Minister: France had offered to participate in our attacks on Iran.

https://t.me/farsna/377265

Now the real pain begins for the Entity. A night spent in shelters, power outages across the country, airport closed for the foreseeable future. How much can the settlers really suffer before cracking? This is only the start.

Anti-missile defense platforms reportedly hit. It really does feel like Israel bit off more than it could chew here. Power off across most of Haifa

Iran just hit Tel Aviv.

Israel has vowed to blow up Iran's oil facilities in response.

The location of David's Sling sites in Tel Aviv has been exposed on international news.

NEW: US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz sails for the Middle East

Source: Channel 12

Public unrest will certainly decline with a fresh and unprecedentedly disastrous war in the Middle East - those are always popular! And occupying all the major cities in the country with the military will definitely be easy when you're also getting into your messiest imperialist adventure yet 😏

The Cradle, quoting the Times of Israel:

Mossad operatives built drone base inside Iran, Israeli official reveals

Israel spent years laying the groundwork for an operation targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure. Mossad operatives constructed a drone launch site near Tehran. These drones were activated overnight to strike surface-to-surface missile launchers directed at Israel.

Additionally, weapons-carrying vehicles were covertly brought into Iran.

These systems "took out" Iran’s air defenses, allowing Israeli aircraft to practice "supremacy and freedom of action" within Iranian airspace.

A third covert operation involved Mossad commandos placing precision missiles near anti-aircraft installations in central Iran.

The official says the operations were made possible by “groundbreaking thinking, bold planning and surgical operation of advanced technologies, special forces and agents operating in the heart of Iran while totally evading the eyes of local intelligence.”

I was wondering what Iran's version of the Lebanon pager attack + Nasrallah assassination was gonna be - Israel's big, flashy, opening move to a war that embarrasses their enemy and shows a major intelligence failure on their part. This seems like it might be it?

Though, to be fair to Iran, it seems like both countries are pretty highly infiltrated. Like, Israel can somehow covertly create a drone base near Tehran, while Iran can seize from Israel the greatest intelligence trove in decades that seems to have revealed their nuclear secrets and locations. Both countries seem to be bad at defense and good at offense in an intelligence sense.

Al-Mayadeen: Israeli media: Power blackout in a number of regions as a result of Iranian missiles.

Relatively small solidarity protests going on in multiple cities. Could really roll into something, but i am unsure of how big without a huge ignition, like ICE being caught brutalizing someone on camera.

If there is a "peak" to this current deal, its going to be this weekend, barring something wildly inflammatory happening. For 6 months into trumps presidency, its definitely something, and even if it fizzles out this time, its probably going to keep happening over time. Gonna be interesting times.

Edit: interestingly near me there is a way larger than I would expect protest in a pretty suburban area. It is heavily Hispanic, so makes sense, but also its Tuesday. It looks to be well over 1k people, and that is genuinely surprising. It might go pretty hard on the weekend.

The crowd looks to be families and very chill, of course it didnt stop the county pd from rolling out the riot gear. Death to America.

Crying and screaming as missile hits Israeli building

https://streamable.com/0gnpsk

Not that public opinion means anything, but anecdotally I am not seeing any support for Israel among Americans from across the political spectrum. US boots on the ground is an obvious non-starter (and has been for a very long time), but idk, it’s possible that just significant materiel support could face strong backlash.

In response to the resolution against Iran, the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency announces the following immediate reliatory measures:

1. Iran will significantly increase its enriched uranium production, opening up a third enrichment facility in a hardened and secure location.

2. Iran will replace first generation IR-1 centrifuges at the underground Fordow facility with advanced IR-6 centrifuges.

3. Iran will significantly reduce its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, and may expel inspectors.

Source

lovehow two thirds of portlanders are the most pretentious bsky socdems you'll ever witness and the rest are the closest ppl to actual badass ancom sleeper cell operatives in the country lol

An evergreen joke from 20+ years ago

[link]

https://nitter.poast.org/ME_Observer_/status/1933360013499576508#m

Francesca Albanese calls for the militaries of U.N. member states to break the siege of Gaza:

This should not be on civilians to take risks on their life. There is an obligation on member states to stop the genocide. And if they don't see the genocide, they have to take all measures necessary to prevent it. Which includes two things, because this is the ICJ that has said it. The first is to make sure that humanitarian aid is delivered, and this is why I called upon member states to send their navies; their navies with humanitarian aid: food, medicine; everything that is needed. With their doctors, and their nurses, and tents; anything that can be used by the people in Gaza. And go with their own forces. This is time to break the siege, first and foremost. And while they are lagging behind—and I hope to see that from all Mediterranean ports, from Algeria, from Tunisia, from Egypt, from Libya, from Spain, from Italy, from France, everywhere. This is how you sort out such a mess.

But meanwhile, because member states will not do that, that quickly, or not all of them, it's upon individuals to try to do what the Madleen has done. And I keep on saying: people, this is very risky—this is very risky—so you need to be safe, and protected. So coordinate yourself with the flotilla coalition, because there are guidelines, there are protocols, and there are dos and don'ts in this mission....

Middle East Eye: "Prevent genocide or face consequence"' warns Francesca Albanese (YouTube, 25m video)

A bunch of French secret agents have killed themselves this year
https://x.com/camille_moscow/status/1933268000993652988
https://x.com/TribunePop23/status/1882828293659144571
https://x.com/le_Parisien/status/1929964898039078939

Tehran is currently under constant Israeli bombings. Multiple targets being hit in wave after wave of Israeli bombings during the day.

David Hogg removed as Vice Chair of Democratic National Committee — Politico

David Hogg will not run again for his Democratic National Committee vice chairman position, he announced on Tuesday, amid a firestorm the 25-year-old activist sparked over his pledge to take on “ineffective” Democratic incumbents.

DNC members removed Hogg and Pennsylvania state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta through a virtual vote on Wednesday night, stemming from a procedural complaint unrelated to Hogg’s primary activities.

"You've gotten a lot farther than you should have, but then you haven't met the DNC either. Your ride's over, Gen Z. Time to die."

tweet

Iranian Military X account now says "Operation True Promise III is now underway"

https://x.com/IRIran_Military/status/1933596397808312636

This is notable because these 2 waves were called "Operation Severe Punishment". So they are presumably referring to a different operation.

Armchair Warlord makes some pretty good analysis. Would like to hear @MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net on this.

Al Jazeera

This was an extensive volley of ballistic missiles, something that Tel Aviv is not used to. Extensive damage was reported to buildings, but of course, because there was compliance with the instructions to head to shelters, to be in the safe rooms, the number of injuries among the residents was minimised.

For now, people have been told to stay close, but that they don’t have to be in shelters. Psychologically, though, the site of damaged buildings, of emergency service providers trying to get people out of those buildings and out of the shelters, this is quite powerful for the Israeli public.

Tel Aviv is thought of as the jewel, if you will, among the cities in Israel. It is politically and economically significant, and it is not used to this kind of military confrontation. The intensity of the fire, the number of missiles, the kind of explosions that they saw, the impacts, the effects on the buildings – this is new to the Israeli public.

Shahran Oil Depot in Tehran still burning at morning, after being struck overnight. The fumes from this will be horrible, anyone in Tehran should stay inside if at all possible.

Two observations:

1. It is necessary to control the doomerism because this is war. There will be defeats and victories and being a doomer seems to me more akin to someone wanting a fix of a drug you can get and only getting relief after seeing retaliation. This is not for dopamine seeking. This needs discipline, comrades.

2. Once the smoke settles, how fucked is the situation? Is the US gonna join? France? UK?

I really have no idea if all this buzz of an attack on Iran is a negotiating tactic of Trump or something real. Seems to have become very real very quickly in the past few hours though. Would still be surprised if anything happened tonight though, seems too fast for something of this magnitude.

The US sends 21 refuelling tankers simultaneously to the middle east

https://i.imgur.com/UR2MeBI.png

The last bit is an excellent punchline. I actually laughed out loud.

NYT

The Israeli military said that rocket fire from Iran is continuing, stating that “another barrage of dozens of missiles was fired at Israel.” It said the sounds of explosions were from interceptions by the country’s air defenses.

NATO chief to demand EU boost air, missile defense capabilities by '400 percent' – the cradle

US President Donald Trump has asked that NATO members increase defense spending to five percent of GDP, claiming Russia poses a threat to Europe

in the meantime, German libs pretend that militarizing is "sticking it to trump"...

Seattle federal building's garage blocked by Lime bikes and scooters, with this and the Waymos I'm enjoying the use of e-vehicles in these actions

Confirmed guys, ww3 is just around the corner