news

https://xcancel.com/Almutawakkil560/status/1961547947625107710

Hebrew media reports that the first security incident took place in the Zaytoun neighborhood and the second in the Sabra neighborhood in Gaza City. The third incident took place in Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip. The Hannibal Directive has reportedly been activated to prevent soldiers from being captured by the resistance.

Cradle

Abu Obeida announced the ~~hostages~~ lawfully detained combatants would remain in the field of fire earlier today, ahead of incoming Israeli incursions, and now ~~three~~ four “security incidents” have been reported in the north of Gaza, including one major ambush

https://t.me/thecradlemedia/41700

https://t.me/PalestineResist/81305

https://t.me/khalill82/6514

The sounds of fighting

https://t.me/thecradlemedia/41695

Rumors of capture attempts and the Hannibal directive, but those rumors have been false before

https://t.me/thecradlemedia/41696

🎙Hebrew media:

1st security incident in al-Zaytoun neighborhood, Gaza City 2nd in Al-Sabra neighborhood 3rd in Khan Younis, south Gaza

Circulating: 4 soldiers are missing, the army is conducting searches but having a difficult time due to mortar strikes by the resistance

(machine translated) https://archive.ph/svp9V

New wave of migration after the war: why Ukraine may lack its own labor force

Ukraine risks losing most of its migrants: up to 70% may remain abroad. This is fraught with labor shortages and a new wave of emigration after the war. Ukraine's post-war recovery may face not so much a shortage of money as a shortage of labor. According to NBU estimates, another 200,000 people will leave the country by the end of 2025, and the same number in 2026. Thus, Ukraine may lose about 400,000 citizens in two years. This is stated in the material of the Office of Migration Policy. Back in the spring, the National Bank predicted a reverse process: 200 thousand Ukrainians were supposed to return in 2026, and even half a million in 2027. However, expectations have now been revised: the "net return" of migrants has been postponed for another year, and in 2027, according to the new forecast, only about 100 thousand people will return home.

Migrants strengthen the EU economy, but weaken Ukraine

In its July inflation report, the NBU warns that prolonged migration and the slow return of Ukrainians will lead to a serious labor shortage. This will limit the pace of economic recovery, provoke unevenness across sectors and regions, and put pressure on inflation, as wages will grow faster than productivity. At the same time, European countries are doing everything to retain Ukrainians. Their governments actively encourage Ukrainian workers to stay, because their work significantly increases economic growth. "Ukrainians are actively working, paying taxes and ensuring the growth of GDP in other countries. For example, in 2024, their contribution to the growth of the Polish economy was 2.7%. But for Ukraine itself, this means an even greater labor shortage and an exacerbation of the demographic crisis," explains Dilyara Mustafayeva, head of the analytical department of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting "Financial Pulse." According to her, even though the average salary of Ukrainians abroad is a third lower than that of local residents, the benefit for recipient countries is obvious: the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia already receive more taxes from Ukrainians than they spend on supporting them.

After the war, a new wave of migration is possible: Ukraine will have to look for workers abroad

According to experts, the Ukrainian economy could lose up to 7.8% of its GDP annually if a significant portion of those who left during the war do not return. "The biggest challenge for the state is to create conditions that will encourage Ukrainians to stay at home and return from abroad. This includes affordable housing, new jobs, development of education, support for families and businesses," explains economist Dilyara Mustafayeva.

Without housing and work there will be no return

The head of the Migration Policy Office, Vasily Voskoboinik, shares a similar opinion. He notes that security is important, but housing, decent wages, and social infrastructure remain the decisive factors for people. "Ukraine did not build social housing even after 2014, when the first migrants appeared. Now that the war has destroyed 29% of the housing stock, this problem is even more acute. If the state does not begin mass construction of social housing, we risk maintaining high levels of migration and low birth rates," he says.

70% of Ukrainians may remain abroad

Experts currently estimate that there are about 7 million citizens outside of Ukraine. And the longer the war goes on, the less likely they are to return. "We predict that about 70% of Ukrainians who are abroad today will not return. There will be no sharp economic takeoff after the war, and this could trigger a new wave of labor migration - up to 2 million more people. Then the question will arise: who will physically work to restore the country?" warns Voskoboinik.

Ukraine may need immigrants

According to him, if labor migration continues, Ukraine will have to open the labor market to foreigners. "We must be prepared for the fact that in order to restore the country we will have to attract people from other countries. These could be specialists who will come, work here and potentially become part of the Ukrainian political nation. If we are against this process, we will find ourselves without workers, without a sufficient number of taxpayers and even without consumers for Ukrainian goods and services," he concludes.

boy, I'm sure all the Azovite nazis are going to be real happy about that!

Earlier, TSN.ua reported how much the population of Ukraine has decreased due to the war: https://archive.ph/v047N

anybody else seeing a potential color revolution in indonesia brewing on the news lately? obviously prabowo is not a people's candidate, but he is firmly breaking w us policy and building w china through the belt and road and the US absolutely can not allow that.

Turkey shuts off airspace to Israeli planes and stops trade

Sorry, should have added that this is likely in response to Netanyahu recognising the Armenian genocide. I got a bridge to sell you if you think erdogan cares about Palestinians

trump admin revokes visa for abu mazen and other pa dogs

trouble in wunderwaffe land... https://archive.ph/Zt4Nv

Exclusive: Maker of Ukraine's new Flamingo cruise missile facing corruption probe

The country's anti-corruption agency is looking into Fire Point's alleged ties to Zelensky's former associate, and whether the firm inflated contracts with the state. Ukraine's anti-corruption agency has been investigating the country's star deep-strike drone company — Fire Point — over concerns it misled the government on pricing and deliveries, five sources with knowledge of the investigation told the Kyiv Independent. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau, or NABU, is also looking into the co-owner of President Volodymyr Zelensky's former film studio as the alleged ultimate beneficiary of the company, sources said.

Until recently, the weapons maker was virtually unknown outside of Ukraine's defense circles, despite appearing to be one of the largest — if not the largest — recipient of Defense Ministry drone budget funds, according to documents obtained by the Kyiv Independent. But over the past weeks, Fire Point has gone on a charm offensive, promoting its FP-1 deep-strike drones and "Flamingo" cruise missile in Western media. In his first public comments about the weapon, Zelensky last week called the Flamingo Ukraine's "most successful" missile the country has in its arsenal to defend against Russia's nearly four-year full-scale invasion. Ukraine has prioritized developing long-range strike drones and cruise missiles to hit Russian targets far behind the front lines and slow Moscow's war machine.

As part of the investigation, NABU is probing concerns that Fire Point inflated either the value of its components or the number of drones it delivers to the military, or both, according to the sources, who include current and former government officials and industry representatives, all of whom agreed to speak on condition of anonymity to discuss the investigation and company details. When contacted, a spokesperson for NABU declined to comment, saying the agency could not discuss it "as it concerns the secrecy of investigations." Fire Point confirmed the existence of an investigation to the Kyiv Independent but downplayed its significance, denying the accusations and portraying the investigation as based on rumors spread by opponents and part of wider probes into Ukraine's defense procurement system. "It makes no sense to look for the secrets where there are no secrets," Iryna Terekh, Fire Point’s chief technology officer, told the Kyiv Independent.

Wartime secrecy has kept weapons production largely in the shadows. While it is currently unclear how far along NABU's investigation into Fire Point is, the probe marks one of the most significant known inquiries into Ukraine’s fast-growing drone and missile industry — and into its new darlings of defense production. It also comes on the heels of a government crackdown on NABU last month, widely seen as a response to the agency’s scrutiny of Zelensky’s associates. The current NABU investigation is tracing the firm's ultimate ownership to Timur Mindich, a businessman who co-owns Kvartal 95, the television studio started by Zelensky, three of the sources said. As the investigation is ongoing, no charges have been brought against any individuals or entities. "Rumors are going around pretty actively that (Fire Point's) drones are linked with Mindich, and I have every conviction that this version of events corresponds to reality," the government source, who is familiar with the investigation's materials, told the Kyiv Independent. NABU did not respond to any questions regarding Mindich. The Kyiv Independent was able to reach an attorney for Mindich, who said they had no information on a connection between their client and Fire Point.

hey, some not-disgustingly-awful news about Ukraine for once https://archive.ph/IiA3h

Why Ukraine Is Allowing More Young Men to Leave the Country

For three years of war, the country has banned young men from leaving the country once they turn 18, prompting an exodus of teenage boys. Now it is raising that age limit to 23. Men between the ages of 18 and 22 will no longer be barred from leaving Ukraine under a new regulation that eases a rule introduced in the early days of the Russian invasion to ensure the country had enough soldiers. The ban on traveling out of the country, which took effect under martial law in February 2022, has applied to men from 18 to 60, including those not yet eligible for the draft, which currently starts at age 25. Under the new rule, which goes into effect on Thursday, men will be allowed to travel outside Ukraine until they reach the age of 23. Over the last three years, many families sent their teenage sons out of the country before they turned 18, to avoid having them eventually conscripted into what has become a grinding war of attrition with high casualty rates. Announcing the change on Tuesday, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said the change would allow young men to travel and study abroad without feeling that they had to leave to avoid the draft. “We want Ukrainians to maintain as many ties with Ukraine as possible,” she said. Here’s what to know about the new regulations.

Why is Ukraine’s draft age so high?

For the first two years of the war, men under 27 were not obliged to fight. Then in 2024, under pressure from Western allies who were worried about a shortage of Ukrainian soldiers, the country lowered the draft age to 25. Serhiy Leshchenko, an adviser in the Ukrainian president’s office, said last year that American politicians from both parties were pressuring Ukraine to lower the age further. Some U.S. lawmakers have said Ukraine should reduce it to 18. But the country so far has resisted, pointing to demographic trends stemming from a plunge in birthrates after the fall of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has relatively few men in their early 20s but many in their 40s.

Will the change affect Ukraine’s military?

It’s unclear how the change will affect conscription. Many parents have been sending children abroad before they turn 18 because of concerns that the war could go on for years or the government could again lower the draft age. Often, boys skip their high school prom to depart in time. Allowing young men to leave before they turn 23 rather than 18 seems to run against American pressure on Ukraine to funnel younger men into the military. Many experts cite the Ukrainian Army’s lack of manpower as the country’s greatest challenge in the war against Russia, which has a much bigger population. “It’s hard for me to explain this from the perspective of waging a war of attrition,” said Mykhailo Samus, the director of the independent New Geopolitics Research Network in Kyiv. “Basically, this is the reduction in the size of the mobilization reserve.”

But other Ukrainian experts and officials said they did not believe the rule change would lead to an exodus of young men and might instead deepen their ties to Ukraine. Under the new rules, they note, young men are still prohibited from leaving the country for two years before becoming eligible for the draft. They argue the change could keep some young men in the country longer as contributing members of society and could offer experiences abroad for others who will someday return to aid Ukraine. “The goal of this step is, first and foremost, to provide young Ukrainians with broader opportunities for education, internships and legal employment abroad, so that the experience they gain can later be used for the development of Ukraine,” Ihor Klymenko, the minister of internal affairs, wrote on Telegram.

yeah dude, I'm sure all those teens and 20-year-olds, many of whom have, at this point, statistically probably had a father, uncle or even older brother die or get crippled at the front, are totally going to be looking forward to returning

How are families reacting?

The change is politically popular in Ukraine, especially among families with boys. Ukrainians who evacuated early in the war as refugees with sons who turned 18 while abroad have not been able to send them home for a visit unless the young men were prepared to remain permanently in Ukraine. Often that meant they have been deprived of opportunities to see their fathers in Ukraine. Once the new regulations take effect, that will change. The move also relieves pressure on families still living in Ukraine with male children. Oksana, 45, who has a 16-year-old son and two 18-year-old nephews, said her family did not plan to take them out of the country. Still, she said she was very happy about the rule change “for all of us mothers.” “Psychologically, it is nice to know that our sons will still be able to have a rest abroad without war threats and at least see the sea and have a safe swim, to spend at least a few weeks without bombs,” said Oksana, who asked that her full name not be used to avoid judgment in society.

Ok, what's the deal with Robert Fico, PM of Slovakia, and his party? Reading the party's wikipedia page and they seem pretty unique among European parties in power. Pro-communist states but not communist, super homophobic and kind of sexist, consistently anti-imperialist but Islamophobic. It's a weird mix. Anyone got Takes?