this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2024
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No. We're "un-fucked".
We cant win with Biden.
We CAN win without him.
Finally the dense mother fuckers who have been denying Biden's inadequacy have been dragged, kicking and screaming, into reality.
We'll have a brokered convention (like all conventions before 1970's), we'll get "generic corporate democrat", and they'll be instantly polling in the low to mid 50's and we'll actually have a fucking chance.
Biden has had no chance at winning this election at any point in his candidacy. Ever. Look at the polling. Look at the data. He's never stood a chance and plenty of people here and elsewhere have been trying to get this through some extremely thick skulls that have basically been insisting that we need to run an un-electable candidate.
Well the goose is cooked. The rat is out of the bag. Here comes the moose or whatever. He's done. Adios Biden, don't let the door hit you on the way out. You did fine on some stuff but wow you fucked up on Gaza/Israel.
Minutes after that debate Newsom was on MSNBC. We're gonna get Newsom, or maybe Inslee; a way smarter choice would be Witmer or Andy Beshear.
And guess what? Litterally ANY GENERIC CANDIDATE PUTS 10 POINTS BACK ON THE BOARD.
Bam. Switch candidates and Democrats are instantaneously back in this race.
Not only switch candidates, but have Biden have the humility to back that person. Do it in the name of Democracy, you know: this election is too important and I realize we need a stronger candidate than I can be. That would sell well, and that's what's needed for better or worse: a good narrative
Yeah, it takes a lot of chutzpah to say, "Look, I tried, but I can't do it. This guy can do it, and I'm giving him my full support, you should too".
I think just about anyone who has the confidence to run for President is narcissistic enough to think they are the only person who can do the job, so Biden, or Trump, stepping down willingly is not going to happen.
Oh, nothing about our culture would permit someone to do that. I don't expect him to. It's just a nice fantasy
This probably doesn't work, and it's probably not as good idea as anyone hopes (genuinely or not). It might happen anyway, but no matter what, we're coasting toward a second Trump presidency, just like all the Russian agitprops here wanted all along.
If Biden is polling down 10 points or worse at the convention, they could drag someone else onto the stage, but my suspicion is that no one else outperforms him on short notice, even after his abysmal performance in the debate.
A few reasons:
Bro Newsom was on MSNBC 15 seconds after the debate ended. Newsom is 100% gunning for the job.
This is a real issue that I think you are right to bring up. Harris can basically put the brakes on/ gatekeep whomever the nominee is going to be.
Yeah you are just wildly off base here. Biden was at between a 5-20% chance of winning the election prior to this debate (not polling, but probability). He'll be in the 3-10% range after this. Did you watch the post debate coverage? CNN's only topic of conversation was that we need to replace Biden. This is CNN! They are the party insiders. He's cooked.
Newsom was on MSNBC singing Joe's praises, just like he would have done regardless, because Newsom wants to be president, but Newsom also polls worse than Biden. That's not hypothetical. Those polls already exist, and a drop in Biden's numbers isn't automatically a boost for Newsom. If Newsom thinks losing in 24 hurts his viability in 28, he wouldn't do it. And who could blame him? It's five months to the election.
The point is: It's possible that all of the options are bad. Biden was in the mid-forties before the debate and the thirties after. He went from near toss-up to probably losing if the election were yesterday/today. Newsom might out-poll Biden today, but that's not the contest.
The contest is with Trump. It's not good enough to poll better than Biden. You have to actually carry all of Biden's states and then some. If I'm Newsom and deciding whether to try to cobble together a five-month campaign and limp to November to save the DNC from itself and protect Amtrak Joe's legacy when I'm starting 15 points in the hole or run my own campaign against the likes of a Haley or DeSantis also-ran once Trump is term-barred, dead, or both in four years, I'm not taking a risk at the convention unless someone makes me very, very confident that I could win.
And there's the rub. Newsom wants to be president, and he'd love to be president in six months, but he's not going to take over a campaign that's already lost. If the party thinks Trump wins no matter what--not an unreasonable conclusion--why on earth would they burn their best shot of a rebound in 28?
Bro Biden was in the mid thirties before the debate.
Uh... okay, bro. You know that Donald Trump is also running in this election, right? Biden could be running single digits, and it still wouldn't change the calculus: If a Biden alternative can't beat Trump, they're not going to put an albatross around the neck of their political career just to lose in November.
You've got the entire thing backwards: Biden is the albatross.
ANY other democrat polls better than Biden. Biden is the worst possible democrat to be running. Period. Except maybe Hillary, and even then, she'd be doing better than Biden right now.
You swap out Biden with literally any hollow blue suit, and you are suddenly 10 points up in the polls.
Except there's no such thing as a hollow blue suit! Any alternative to Biden has to be a real live human being, probably with real live political aspirations of their own. That means they're going to want to win. Anybody who stands any chance of being anywhere remotely close to competitive also stands a chance of outright winning under better circumstances in four years.
You're asking an ambitious politician to take a real, serious risk of political suicide just to save face, and the reality is that no matter who your replacement is, polling better than Biden isn't a win condition. Winning the election in November is the only good outcome. All other outcomes are bad not only for the nation but also personally for whoever replaces Biden.
Sure, you can run a would-never-win-or-even-run-anyway candidate, but like I said: that's essentially conceding the election, and Biden can do that on his own.
Good luck with Project 2025, because that's what third party voters are voting for.
We need to get rid of FPTP voting before a 2 party system can be derailed.
Are you like, actually touched?
We're talking about the Democratic nominee right now. Not any third party candidate.
Biden is the Democratic nominee. Sure it's not official until August 19-22 but unless he resigns, dies, or is otherwise fully incapacitated before then, he is the candidate who will be on the ballots in November. None of those possibilities seem likely.
Without ranked choice voting a third party vote is throwing away a vote.
Correct. And almost always a vote that would go to a Democrat candidate.
LOL. A lot of flowery language there but not much substance. The Dems can't switch now. Trump can instantly snatch on to that and attack whoever replaces Biden as an inferior desperate backup. Trump will say you Democrats have no idea what they're doing and they can't even stand behind their incumbent. This isn't only about 2024 but also about the midterms. Who would vote for a party that backstabs their incumbent?
Yeah your just wrong.
You obviously don't know the rules for the DNC or how primary's work, or have any kind of meaningful political acumen. You are your archetypes have been spouting this plainly wrong "political wisdom" both here and across cable news for months, years even. And reality has now bucked your claims.
Bidens not the nominee. He lost that last night. And it's a good thing. He's losing dramatically to Trump right now.
Such confidence in statements that will be proven wrong in a matter of days. LOL. You'll forget these comments by then though.
I'll eat my hat and comment here if Biden doesn't gets his nomination. I didn't say Biden is the nominee. I didn't even use the word "nominee". Its you who keeps attacking the straw man. But you know what? I'm 100% sure the DNC will nominate Biden. That debate performance was bad but he ain't losing his presumptive nomination. Don't confuse reality with what you want to happen.
Show me a picture of the hat.
@remindme@mstdn.social 55 days
Show me what hat you will eat.
@remindme@mstdn.social 5 months
@Lifecoach5000 Ok, I will remind you on Wednesday Nov 27, 2024 at 9:42 PM PST.
The DNC convention is in August, not November.
Welp that doesn’t quite matter now does it? Lol
Well I had the call right. We swapped out the candidate and we instantly got ten points back in the board. More even at the midpoint of the convention.
Had it been Biden EC would have gone 400 to Trump. At least that's what his internal polling at the time of this comment had him at.
Does this actually work?
Biden had beaten him before. And many people will vote for a shit stain against trump.
In 2020 he still wasn't Genocide Joe though.
Gretchen Whitmer to the rescue? 🤞