this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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I'm going to vote, and vote for Biden, but realistically, the democrats have already fumbled this big time.
The debate: honest to fuck, Trump looked composed and almost presidential next to Joe in that debate. I facepalmed in the first thirty seconds and never stopped. Jesus Christ, that was a massacre, and I don't know how anyone can pretend otherwise.
Biden himself: The debate kind of unsealed the can of questions about Joe's well being, and you're just not getting the snakes back in. Every time he goes to prove he's still Joe from 2020 or 2012, we get Joe from 2024, or even a flash of Joe from the debates. His audio is always fucked because he's speaking so soft that they have to turn the gain all the way up to pick him up, which means they also grab all kinds of artifact. He walks like an old man refusing to use the walker that his doctor is begging him to use. He keeps having pretty serious gaffes that kind of go beyond what we've come to expect from Joe. This just isn't going away, especially because every attempt to clean it up makes it worse. So, they're going to rely on the HRC 16 strategy of just yelling "Just shut the fuck up and vote, or we're going to get Hitler!"
Only: Now they're afraid to use the one trick this donkey seems to know anymore. The democrats got lazy, being able to use the threat of fascism as a fundraising and outreach tool. The problem is that we're talking about armed Americans here, and you convince the right ones that the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of tyrants and, well... [Gestures]. So, now, the democrats have spent eight years telling us how Trump is Hitler (and make no mistake about it, he is a fascist) and building their platform around being the not fascists, and now that whole rug has gotten yanked out from under them because if they keep using that rhetoric, it's going to get someone killed. So, which is it? Trump is a serious threat of fascism and must be stopped to save the Republic, or it's not actually that bad and it's okay as long as Joe feels he tried his best?
Oh, and the assassination attempt gave Trump a couple of big Ws. First, that fucking picture. Show me a picture of Joe that's that cool that isn't just a meme; you can't. Second, instead of hustling away immediately, shit ass decided to have a moment of showmanship and pump his fist and yell "fight!" I hate that Donald is a good showman, but he is, and denying it won't change it.
So let's review, shall we?
Joe has: a really very just okay first time if you forgive the little genocide detail. And probably Parkinson's or sundowner's or something. He also has no real strategy left now that pointing out that the fascists are fascist leads to an unacceptable risk of political violence.
Trump has: a terrible awful first term that was a whole COVID ago, a badass picture, a badass moment, the ability to mostly kinda sorta speak in full sentences at a good volume, not bad reaction time tbh, and a bunch of newly sympathetic news coverage, donors, and people ready to join up with the fascists supporting him.
You might read all this and say "fuckin Trump supporter", and, I mean, good for you, I guess. I'm going to vote for Biden or whoever isn't Trump on November, but I'm also trying to be realistic about the situation we're in. The democrat establishment have bunglefucked the situation bad, and I have grave concerns about their ability to get their shit in gear by November. May they prove me wrong, I am not excited about Christian fascism.
I hate how people vote based on who has a cooler picture rather than their agenda.
I fucking hate politics.
People didn't vote for Biden because they supported his agenda. He was the fifth least-popular candidate in 2020, barely ahead of "Mike" Bloomberg.
The DNC promised favors to the other candidates in exchange for dropping out and endorsing Biden, because in their minds it was better to have a brain-dead candidate than risk nominating a socialist.
And now fascism's here.
Ok I get all that, like yeah we made all the wrong decisions as far as stopping fascism but have you considered wall street?
Why does no one care about the poor poor ultra wealthy wall street people!? Yeah sure we're about to see what happens when the world's largest military is run by Hitler #2, but at least Democrats protected wall street interests!
Wall Street= the economy... Duh
People can't afford groceries? Nonsense, have you seen the stock market?
I actually hoped Bernie would run last time Trumpler won again Hillary. In my eyes, he is competent, intelligent, and has some good ideas. Of course, he was old, and is even older now, and maybe out of touch with the younger gens, but at least better than Biden, and has a nice following.
Also memes.
At this point the US is just a failed state, doing failed state things, because it's a failed state. The writing's been on the wall for decades, but even though I expected the dictatorship within my lifetime since I was a teenager, I never expected it to be so god damned stupid. I expected it to be someone cunning and competent. Not a total fucking moron.
I definitely didn't expect the oligarchy to go the useful idiot route either, but man, when you can elect an idiot as useful as Donald Trump, I figure they feel pretty well empowered.
I definitely agree with you on that.
I've been thinking a lot about how the assassination attempt will effect Bidens chances at victory. I read one take that I agree with, the basic idea is that it won't effect polling data that much. That's with the belief that there are no real undecided voters in this election. The key issue is voter turnout per party. And the biggest effect is that this will cause Trump supporters to have high turnout rates. Biden will never do well in that enthusiasm gap, which is a major reason why it would have been best to stick to a single term, can't undue that though.
There is a unique opportunity at DNC. Assuming Trump will do nothing to "turn down the tempture" Biden can step down as the nominee, claiming his family convinced him to, fearing an assassination attempt. That will flip the entire narrative. There should be an open primary as well. 1 debate with x number of Dems, don't just nominate Harris, again, democrats need enthusiasm to have a high turnout. That debate will be a huge television event and it will be about the issues, Democrats will win, down ballot even, when they all say tax the rich over and over again.
That's just me writing a script for this shit. But at this point, fuck it, replace Biden with George Clooney. He's just as qualified as Trump was in 2016.
Could you explain how? Flip it around: if a registered Dem took a shot at Biden would that help his turnout? I'm not so sure.
It depends on how it was handled. Trump got an excellent PR photo, and the dems have been tripping over each other in their rush to support him and civility. This is a massive win for Trump in the eyes of his voterbase. In non-Trump voter eyes, it won't make any difference, but it doesn't need to. This election will be won or lost not by policy, but by voter engagement, and Biden has been doing very poorly recently with that regard.
Your mistake is using the usual logic. That flip only works to identify breaks in a logical way of thinking and serves to highlight how something might not make sense in reverse. Except instead of If A then B and if B maybe not A, we have:
If not fascist, vote Biden
vs
Trump.
He is the equation. No if-then statements, no maybes, nothing. Just the equation of Trump.
He is their god-king. If he says drink cyanide, a shocking percentage would do so. Because of the assassination attempt the timeline has shifted. It is no longer a race of one terrible choice and one middle-of-the-road choice, now especially it is about image and the charisma to represent a figure to the people who need to vote. Allow me to lay a short timeline:
Joe announces a second term. This was his chance to tell all of us that if he can't do it he will step down, for the good of all of us. This creates trust in a leader that understands what is important.
Trump confirms he will run. GOP immediately behind him while playing smoke and mirrors.
Fast forward through mostly normal months if you put aside all the court meetings with Trump at the head.
Joe challenges Trump to a debate. ALL OF US expect Trump to get destroyed. Despite his intelligence, old age is showing and Biden fumbles the ball. Honestly not badly in any other year, he just fumbled it next to one of the biggest imbeciles in recent history and because expectations were high, the fall went further.
However, this is a chance for Joe to recover. Apologize for his performance. Go full Dark Brandon. Explode out onto the news and talk shows. Hire Wendy's PR team and have then run his social media accounts. Admit he fucked up and then step up strongly and precisely. This is how you turn these situations around in your favor.
He continues to fumble and honestly? It isn't truly even his fault, until he admits that he is staying in to "do his best". Now the responsibility is 100% on his shoulders for everything, period. Before this he may have had wiggle room. Unfortunately, that is a statement of ownership. It was not popular.
Then Trump gets shot. Since it happened, best case was him not getting hit at all. Second best was the shooter finding success. Worst case scenario, well...see Trump holding a pose, blood running down the side of his face. Before this moment, Biden was unpopular, though still Biden. There remained ways to regain a foothold. Now even I, who supported him staying in, cannot find a reason for him to do so. He's lost the image game. A single bullet shifted the scale.
To win now it's on us to be the leaders. We all need to come out in numbers never before seen. Without our own figurehead, and there are people whose image could easily challenge and outstrip Trump's, we can now only rely on our collective desire to stop this evil. The problem is the people who can beat him don't want the job.
They would be heroes.
I just don't feel they'll step up.
Nobody is going to risk fracturing the party by announcing that they're running against the incumbent. It's really on Biden to declare he's out of the race first. I hope he does so.
The best thing for US Democracy, the people of the US, and no hyperbole the entire world, would be if Biden got hospitalized through natural illness. He'd be forced to step aside, the "Back Biden no matter what" crowd would have to back a new candidate, the "Please any Democrat except Biden" would get a new candidate, and no one looks weak (or at least not any weaker than they do already).
Then when he recovers, after the election, he can be a strong advisor to the new Democratic president.
I kind of agree but if Biden is incapacitated there will be a strong push to give his spot to Harris and I can see her losing to Trump.
It's a shit situation all round and the blame should be on Biden. He should've served his one term and gone down in history as the guy who steadied the ship after Trump but I guess his ego and hubris prevented that.
How do we get to an open primary and how do we get that done as fairly and as quickly as possible?
Everyone's hindsight bias is on fire it seems. Is it possible that, at the time, the decisions made more sense? I dont see how its productive to think of ways to change the past. Learn and move on.
The party is fractured. The only thing the majority agrees on is not Trump. A true and popular figurehead can shore up the doubtful. Biden has a way out now, though from my perspective only one. I am hoping beyond hope there is someone smarter than me on their team with a brilliant counterplay.
I find myself agreeing with everything you just said.
The fact the political system in the US is effectively captured by two parties that act the same "purple party" on many major issues (genocide for instance) isn't giving people much choice.
Going into this election where the choices have are Biden vs Trump when quite a lot of people would prefer ANYONE else, but the party system refusing to give them any other options (even primaries) speaks to how poorly this system is representing people
Just wait to the shit show of the the the August 19th Democratic Convention in Chicago. Pro Israeli and Pro Palestinian groups will be marching. An alphabet soup of causes will also be on the march. It will only add the confusion surrounding the Democratic's policies, and turn people off voting.
I'm going to read this comment to my kids instead of a bedtime story
My daughter is old enough to be figuring stuff out and she's been asking some really difficult questions about the election.
Replacing Biden was always a good idea, and the opposition always had the argument of "Biden is unfit for the presidency yet is still being pushed by his party, therefore the Democratic party is dumb"; but now prominent Democrats have (correctly in my opinion) called for Biden to be replaced. So there's no going back now. If they don't, the oppisition now has an even stronger argument: "Biden is unfit for the presidency, members of his own party have called for his replacement, yet he hasn't been replaced, therefore the Democratic party is really dumb".
Finding a candidate that energizes voters and creates a big turnout is hard, but not impossible, the 2020 primaries have minted several candidates and raised their profile.
Funnily enough, AOC turns 35 this October, she's too young by like a few months if i get this right?
She would be 35 by January and that's what would count in this very hypothetical situation
That has nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with CNN allowing the sack of shit to lie his ample ass off for 90 minutes without any kind of pushback from the "moderators".
There were times when they cut off Biden mid-sentence to let Trump speak
Ranked Choice voting will Introduce much needed competition into the electoral process. We should all be pressing our state representatives about making plans to switch away from First-past-the-post voting.
This is a really good summary. The one thing that might help Biden from the assassination is that it could reduce Trump's campaign schedule. Which is good, because Biden has no defense for the campaign abilities of Trump. There is still almost definitely going to be a point in September/October, where Trump makes more appearances and talks to the press more than Biden has in his term, but it's probably going to be over about a month or so instead of 2-3 weeks.