cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17947966
Gao Shanwen, chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, had suggested that China’s real economic growth {measured by the Gross Domestic Product, GDP] in recent years may have been closer to 2% annually, not 5% as claimed by authorities. Now, he has been banned from public speaking indefinitely.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered an investigation into a prominent economist who questioned the credibility of Beijing’s official GDP figures and criticised the government’s economic policies.
Gao Shanwen, chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, has been banned from public speaking for an indefinite period, Washington Post reported citing individuals familiar with the matter.
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The move came after Gao’s remarks at a Washington forum last month, where he suggested that China’s real economic growth in recent years may have been closer to 2 per cent annually, well below the 5 per cent claimed by authorities. Gao also expressed scepticism about the government’s ability to effectively implement measures to stimulate growth.
“We do not know the true number of China’s real growth figure,” Gao had said during the December 12 event co-hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a Chinese think tank. He speculated that the actual growth rate might be significantly lower than official data suggested.
Xi is said to have been angered by Gao’s remarks, ordering that he be disciplined. Although Gao has retained his job, his public engagements have been curtailed. A planned lecture at China’s Nankai University was abruptly cancelled in January, reportedly due to “scheduling conflicts.”
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This crackdown on Gao comes as Beijing seeks to manage growing concerns over its economic trajectory. China’s economy faces mounting challenges, including a real estate crisis that has eroded household wealth by an estimated $18 trillion, rising debt nearing 300 per cent of GDP, and industrial overcapacity. Analysts have raised concerns about the risk of a deflationary spiral.
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Beijing has intensified efforts to suppress negative commentary about the economy, with senior officials urging tighter control over economic messaging. In a recent meeting, Cai Qi, Xi’s chief of staff, called for greater “expectation management” to counteract pessimism.
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More recently, discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, such as wage growth and exports, have fuelled scepticism among economists.
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Such a slowdown would challenge Xi’s goal of doubling the nation’s economic output by 2035.