With Russia being such a big weapons supplier to India, and China of Pakistan, and given the relations of India and Pakistan to the US, is there potential for India-Pakistan tensions to undermine the Russia-China relationship?
this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from June 16th to June 22nd, 2025 - Iran, Harden Your Heart
(hexbear.net)
Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
It’s possible but I think Russia realizes China is much more important to it than India. If push came to shove and they had to chose between the two, they would chose China.
So if India aligns with the west they will be totally isolated and surrounded by enemies
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Alleged disassembly of the DPRK's Hwasong-11A Ballistic Missile
https://xcancel.com/FPGAX_/status/1922849860740424021
If this is real I think the most notable thing about it is that it's a hand-soldered SMT board. No idea where this was acquired from to do the disassembly, maybe used in Ukraine/Kursk?
This missile has been used in Ukraine for a year and a half now, so from there yeah.
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Who wants to bet Trump is insinuating that Iran will get bombed on the 4th of July?
monkey paw curls - 4th of July becomes an Iranian holiday too, to celebrate the day they sank all those carriers
Lathe of heaven go brrr
unhand the lathe.
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Article
Havana, Jun 19 (Prensa Latina) Cuban authorities today withdrew part of the staff based in the Cuban Embassy in Iran.
"Women and children were evacuated in the face of Zionist aggression against #Iran. We include a minor and three Cuban journalists residing in Tehran," said the island's Foreign Minister, Bruno Rodriguez, on social network X.
He also affirmed that our mission will maintain daily work and consular attention to Cubans living in the Persian nation.
Putin and Xi Jinping discuss escalation of tension in the Middle East - Prensa Latina
Article
St. Petersburg, Russia, Jun 19 (Prensa Latina) The telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and China, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, focused on the escalation of tension in the Middle East, informed today advisor of the Russian president, Yuri Ushakov.
The conversation was friendly and constructive, and both leaders condemned Israel's attacks on Iran, which violate all norms of international law, Ushakov told reporters on the sidelines of the sessions of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (Spief 2025).
“Both sides share the same point of view and strongly condemn Israel's actions, which violate the UN Charter,” the senior official noted.
He also noted that Putin and Xi Jinping agreed to instruct the competent authorities of both countries to exchange information on the Iran-Israel conflict.
“The Russian president also informed his Chinese counterpart about his recent international contacts, i.e. phone calls with the key participants in the context of the Iran-Israel conflict,” the Kremlin representative noted.
The two leaders agreed that their next meeting will take place in the Asian giant in early September, in the context of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin to be held between August 31 and September 1.
In addition, together they will participate in the celebrations on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the Victory over Japanese militarism and the end of World War II. This will take place on September 3. And on September 2, bilateral negotiations will be held in full format, the counselor explained.
"damn, sucks huh"
"yeah"
"alright see ya"
Inshallah, our big wet chicken has done it again.
Trump will lead Iran to victory by blueballing Israhell to the end of time.
I honestly don't take anything they say at face value, it's all a facade. They could attack at any time.
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The Cradle: Pakistan breaks ranks, backs Iran in war with Israel
There's a lot in this article, so to summarize, it looks like Pakistan is rapidly aligning with Iran in a kinda informal way. Both the political class and the population generally support an alignment with Iran, which is surprising because earlier this year, Iran and Pakistan had done a little tit-for-tat, striking targets (extremist groups) within each other's countries. It seems like that exchange, amazingly, left them both fairly satisfied and happy with each other - or perhaps Pakistan's exchange with India earlier made them realize that they do need allies, and Iran can be counted on.
While Islamabad has offered no formal commitment of military aid to Tehran, Iranian media and parliament are now rallying around Pakistan with chants of “Pakistan Zindabad.”
Now, this part is insane:
Speaking to The Cradle, Abdullah Khan of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reveals that Israeli drone operators had recently attempted to sabotage Pakistan's nuclear facilities during the India–Pakistan crisis:
“Israeli drone operators were stationed in Indian operation rooms during the recent Pakistan–India conflict, trying to target Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. However, prompt action from Pakistan thwarted their efforts, preventing them from causing any damage to the nuclear assets of Pakistan.”
Death cult, indeed.
Anyway, I was initially skeptical of claims that Pakistan would nuke Israel if Israel nuked Iran, and I'm still a little skeptical that this would actually happen (as presumably, Pakistan would also get nuked by Israel in return, and then that just creates a whole shitload of issues to put it mildly), but a senior Iranian general basically confirmed that this was true, and I can't imagine that's a thing you just throw out there unless there's some rock-solid support or guarantee. Even Russia hesitated for a bit in giving Belarus access to Russia's nuclear umbrella (I believe waiting until Finland was de jure in NATO, though my timeline might be a little skewed), and Lukashenko has been unquestionably Putin's ally this entire time.
Also, I like this response by a Pakistani official to Iran's version of Guaido:
“If Iranian people are energized and motivated, according to you, show some balls and go back and lead them and remove the regime. Put your money where your arse is, bloody parasitical imperial whore.”
Naturally, this has all put Pakistan under pressure:
“The Pakistani security elite perceive that the US and its counter-proliferation regime are imposing penalties on Pakistan, although it was India that brought the nuclear issue to South Asia. “There exists a structural perception in Rawalpindi that the US, along with its allies India and Israel, is targeting Pakistan's nuclear program. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain how Pakistan will handle the situation. Certainly, increased investment in air defense systems, enhanced domestic intelligence capabilities, and strengthening the air force with next-generation J-35 stealth fighters are all essential to take on any possible Israeli actions."
Now, as noted previously in this thread, Munir has been summoned to the US - so either Pakistan will back down, or they'll flip the US the bird.
In a move that exposes Washington’s alarm, Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was quietly summoned to the US Central Command headquarters in Florida. His absence from a key national parade in Islamabad has raised questions at home. While the Pakistani embassy remains tight-lipped, Dawn cited sources anticipating “uncomfortable conversations” in Washington. Whether Munir's US visit results in a recalibration or further consolidation of Islamabad's alignment with Tehran and Beijing remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: Pakistan is no longer sitting on the fence.
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I've only watched some portions of the interview but apparently I missed this gem lmao
"My father was imprisoned and tortured in Cuba; I hate communism. Well, actually it was Batista who tortured my dad" might be the funniest line from the Cruz-Carlson interview
Edit: found the clip https://xcancel.com/drnifkin_OB/status/1935426334794334560#m
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: "We want diplomacy with Iran, we don't want war, let's see how their meeting with the Europeans goes."
on one side I fear defeat of iran
on the other side, this is the closes pissrael has ever been to collapse
god does not really accept my prayers but I can not stop but to pray for iran from time to time. hope they end victorious
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A final report by the Brazilian Federal Police concluded that Carlos Bolsonaro, one of Bolsonaro's sons and a fugitive in the United States, was the creator of the “parallel Abin”, a clandestine espionage scheme set up during his father's government. The councillor allegedly used the structure to access investigations and supply the so-called “hate cabinet”.
According to the Federal Police, Carlos ran the “parallel intelligence” and was the final recipient of sensitive data, used to attack opponents, protect the Bolsonaro family and sabotage democratic institutions. He was indicted for being part of a criminal organization. The Federal Police also indicted Congressman Alexandre Ramagem (Liberal Party), former director of Abin. In all, 36 people have been held responsible. Carlos reacted by saying that it was all a “coincidence” because of the 2026 elections. But the evidence points to something much more serious.
Brazil's Federal Police have also revealed that President Jair Bolsonaro also used ABIN to spy on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. But, for some reason, the agents investigated the wrong person, someone called Alexandre de Moraes Soares, who is not a Supreme Court Justice or a Judge.
- Telegram
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Colombia joins the New Brics Development Bank - Prensa Latina
Article
Bogotá, 19 jun (Prensa Latina) La canciller de Colombia, Laura Sarabia, celebró hoy el ingreso de su nación al banco del grupo Brics tras la solicitud realizada por el presidente Gustavo Petro en Shangai para adherirse a esa entidad.
"The news that transcends the financial and broadens our horizon. Colombia officially joins the Brics bank led by Dilma Rousseff. We continue to open the way to new opportunities for the country," he wrote in his account on the social network X.
The application to join the New Development Bank and an interview with Rousseff constituted Petro's last activity in his tour of China last May.
At the same time as Colombia's application, a letter signed by the Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Germán Ávila, was also made public, revealing Colombia's interest in joining the entity as a borrowing member, which would allow it to receive loans at low rates to finance development projects in infrastructure, renewable energies or health.
The minister also explained to Rousseff that Colombia “is willing to subscribe 5,125 shares of the authorized capital of the New Development Bank, of which 4,100 correspond to callable shares (as a guarantee) and 1,25 correspond to paid-in shares (in cash)”.
This is equivalent to a subscribed capital (total amount committed to contribute) of 512 million 200 thousand dollars, which includes a callable capital of 410 million dollars and a paid-in capital of 102 million 500 thousand dollars.
The first payment, as detailed in the letter of application for membership, would be made within six months from the date on which Colombia delivers the accession document.
The first payment, as detailed in the letter of application, would be made within six months from the date on which Colombia delivers the document of adherence to the agreement to the Brazilian Government. The New Development Bank is a multilateral financial institution created by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Its main objective is to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in emerging and developing countries, both within and outside the group that already make up the bloc.
Iran: 639 dead and more than 1,220 wounded since the start of Israeli attacks
Casualty count is much higher than I'd previously seen. Death to Israel.
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Trump to decide on US action in Israel-Iran conflict within two weeks, White House says
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Trump is Not Ruling Out a U.S. Military Strike Against Iran - Telesur English
Article
‘Nobody knows what I’m going to do,’ he told reporters when asked about a potential intervention. On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump left open the possibility of a military strike against Iran and said that “nobody knows” what his final decision will be.
“I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” the president told reporters at the White House when asked about a potential intervention.
“I can say this: Iran has a lot of problems, and they want to negotiate. Why didn’t they negotiate with me two weeks ago? They could have made a good deal. They would have had a country. It’s very sad to see,” he added.
On Monday, Trump abruptly left the G7 summit in Canada to return to the White House and meet with his National Security Council to assess whether the U.S. would join the attacks Israel has carried out against Iran since Friday.
The U.S. president explained that he had given the Islamic Republic a 60-day deadline to negotiate a nuclear deal and that, on the 61st day, Israel began bombing uranium enrichment facilities on Iranian soil.
Trump also addressed the message he posted on social media Tuesday directed at Tehran, in which he wrote “unconditional surrender.” He said the phrase meant that Iran should reach the point of saying, “I can’t take it anymore, I surrender.”
“For 40 years, they’ve said, ‘Death to America,’ ‘Death to Israel,’ ‘Death to anyone they don’t like.’ They’ve been bullies, schoolyard bullies. Now they’re not so much, but we’ll see what happens,” Trump said.
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