this post was submitted on 18 Mar 2024
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Image is of President Vladimir Putin, with his cook Prigozhin, though he is more famous for other things.


I'm assuming we all know what a "Russia" and a "Putin" is, so I'm skipping the background section.

On March 15th, Putin handily won the presidential election. This is perhaps one of the least surprising things to happen in the last couple years, and all claims and debates about electoral corruption are missing the point (in this particular election at least). The reason why Putin won is not fascist brainwashing or Putin having a high Persuasion/Intimidation DC, and it's not even really about the laws that make opposing the Ukraine War illegal. Wages are up significantly, unemployment is at record lows (for the post-USSR period, of course), as is poverty, and the ruble is about as stable as it could be given what the West has tried to do to it. The government has been forced to massively intervene in the economy to keep things afloat, buying up properties that have been ditched by foreign and domestic billionaires, though obviously Russia's wealthy are still plenty powerful. Inflation is up, but wages are comfortably outpacing it. And the Communist Party remains a relic of a bygone era, disconnected from the young people who might hypothetically propel a revolution.

Russia is still in the transition from switching to a Western-oriented export economy to an Eastern-oriented one. Nonetheless, Russia is now China's single largest oil supplier (unseating Saudi Arabia), delivering half of all their oil to China, and trade between the two countries has massively increased. Where Western brands have retreated from Russia (and not many actually have), more Russia-friendly corporations, and Russian businesses themselves, have filled the gaps.

By going through the news, I've seen a lot of economies that are not doing well at all. Most countries seem to be in that category. Either they have general growth but a deeply struggling populace, or the government is trying to keep the population afloat but running up huge debts in the process, or the government is failing on both counts. Russia is one of the few countries on the planet that I can confidently state is actually doing quite well objectively, which means it's doing extremely well relatively. Considering the Western economists regularly delivering portents of doom in early 2022, and salivating over how they were going to divide the country following the inevitable economic collapse, this is a hilarious state of affairs.

In the long term, their predictions may come true. It is entirely possible that a post-war Russia will slump, returning to neoliberal policies and continuing their nonsensical allergy to budget deficits. Russia might not be a mere gas station, but a substantial amount of the economy is made up of fossil fuel exports, which might be troublesome in a greener future, especially as China, their main oil market, is one of the few countries on the planet that seems serious about renewable/nuclear energy. And the limited labour force means that long-term growth is inherently limited without some creative measures, even with the potential influx of whatever remains of the population and territory that Russia seizes in Ukraine. Perhaps it is in this crucible of disillusionment and hardship, after seeing that good things are indeed possible if the government wishes them to be so, that a socialist Russia could rise again. But we aren't there yet, and the growth continues for now.

Much of this information is, again, from Michael Roberts. It seems like we're both doing the same strategy of hopping from election to election.


Apologies for the lack of updates (again!), I've been going through book titles again for the reading list (I've probably got a thousand or more to get through) and also trying to touch grass more. I'm not very good at balancing things out, I tend to do the hyperfocus-on-one-thing-until-it's-done approach.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Russia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 58 points 8 months ago (9 children)

Polling isn't looking so hot for Brandon:

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[–] zephyreks@hexbear.net 58 points 8 months ago (4 children)
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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 58 points 8 months ago

Israel’s attacks on Gaza’s healthcare facilities | Al Jazeera

The Israeli army’s raid on al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City is now in its fourth day. According to the army, the raid has killed more than 140 and led to 600 arrests. But this attack isn’t Israel’s first on a medical centre in the Gaza Strip. Our team put together this graphic showing the scale of Israel’s assault on the strip’s healthcare sector:

[–] trompete@hexbear.net 58 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

https://archive.is/HBCM2

Federal culture minister Roth commissioned an opinion from a constitutional expert, Christoph Möllers from Humboldt-University Berlin, about the legality of having recipients of art grants sign antisemitism provisions (like propsed in the state of Berlin for example). Yes, Claudio Roth is the one that clapped at the Berlinale during the anti-apartheid speech and then was hounded by the Springer press. In her defense she put out a statement about how she was clapping for the Israeli Jew, forgetting to mention there was a Palestinian on stage as well. That one.

So he looked at the legality of having artists and institutions declare their commitment to diversity, and against racism and antisemitism (in general and also according to something like the IHRA definition, which conflates antisemitism with criticism of Israel), if they want to receive government grants.

Findings:

  • Since basically everyone receives these grants in Germany, this is pretty delicate, because it de-facto impacts artistic freedom. The vast majority artists and cultural institutions cannot realistically get out of these pledges, even if they can in theory.
  • A commitment to diversity is too vague and would leave the signees unsure about what they can and cannot do.
  • A commitment against racism and antisemitism is more concrete, but the IHRA definition is subject to scientific debate, and the state weighing in on this violates academic freedom.
  • In order to enforce this, a new control mechanism would have to be implemented, which would be rife for abuse and might narrow the space for artistic expression.

So basically he thinks this would be unconstitutional and a bad idea.

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[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 57 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Denmark's succdem-led right-wing regime has lost it's majority in parliament for domestic policies. A liberal MP has switched to the fascist "Denmark Democrats" party, as he wants to be more racist.

The regime is still able to stay in power as MP's from Greenland and the Faroe Islands are protecting them against a vote of no confidence but they are no longer able to pass legislation on domestic issues on their own and will have to seek support from other parties, either from the centre-left opposition or, more likely, from their ideological siblings among hard right and fascist parties.

Today an MP from the defunct "New Right" fascist party has also switched to the "Denmark Democrats", making the fascist paarty the third-largest in parliament.

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[–] zed_proclaimer@hexbear.net 57 points 8 months ago (10 children)

ISIS telegram released bodycam footage of the attack that was previously not available or known. Seems like ISIS definitely is involved in some capacity, although the attackers were paid for their “work” so it still seems like we’re missing the final piece of the puzzle of who funded the operation

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[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 57 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (3 children)

US reportedly considering plea deal offer for Julian Assange

The US government is reported to be considering a plea deal offer to Julian Assange, allowing him to admit to a misdemeanor, but his lawyers say they have been “given no indication” Washington intends to change its approach.

...

The report said a plan under consideration would be to drop the current 18 charges under the Espionage Act, if Assange pleaded guilty to mishandling classified documents, a misdemeanor offence. Assange would be able to enter the plea remotely from London and would likely be free soon after the deal was agreed to, as he has already spent five years in custody in the UK.

However, Assange’s legal team said they were not aware of any change in the prosecution strategy.

One of Assange’s defence attorneys, Barry Pollack, said in a statement: “It is inappropriate for Mr Assange’s lawyers to comment while his case is before the UK high court other than to say we have been given no indication that the Department of Justice intends to resolve the case and the United States is continuing with as much determination as ever to seek his extradition on all 18 charges, exposing him to 175 years in prison.”

They make this all public in the news cycle before even telling Assange's laywers. phoenix-think

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[–] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 57 points 8 months ago (4 children)

The ruling hindutva party of india now has arrested the head of one of the biggest opposition parties in India for bogus reasons. He is the current chief minister of Delhi which is the capital region of India.

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[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 57 points 8 months ago (2 children)
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[–] FLAMING_AUBURN_LOCKS@hexbear.net 56 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (5 children)

Here's my thoughts about what preceded the Moscow attack. It's obviously very fishy, but I think this is another moment of disunity between Kyiv and Washington, of their policies not playing well with each other

The perpetrators more or less admitting they mostly did it for money and didn't want to die is EXTREMELY out of character for Jihadists, and them trying to make a break for Ukraine is a weird red flag. It hints at some kind of Western connection to the attack, but then you've got America strangely pre-empting it with a warning about a terror attack in Moscow weeks before. Not something you typically do if you're trying to make sure the attack happens in the first place.

I feel that Ukraine tried covertly arming and coordinating with Islamist groups like ISIS in an attempt to foment chaos/ignite a war with Chechnya or disorder is other Islamic regions of the Federations. The Ukrainian government is in a do-or-die position where they might feel pressured to do something underhanded and unethical like this. But then at some point, they either ran the idea by the Americans and got a "Hell No" response, or they were trying to keep it under wraps but the Americans found out anyways.

Accepting that the attack was going to happen whether they liked it or not, the Yanks are stuck with a dilemma. If they keep their lips sealed and let a catastrophic terror attack happen in a geopolitically convenient place, they risk it being discovered that they knew in advance but didn't stop it, humiliating the US diplomatically for being hypocrites and tanking Biden's reelection chances.

The harm reduction option is to adhere to Duty to Warn, maybe try to limit civilian deaths by discouraging public gatherings (if that's even a concern for US leadership), all while having the plausible deniability of being able to say "Well we knew something was going to happen, but we didn't know our friends in Ukraine were involved!". Or even to just outright say "That's propaganda, we didn't know Ukraine would do this/Ukraine wouldn't do this! Look, we even warned you that we knew something was going to happen? Why would we do that if we knew/collaborated?"

A proxy state's interests aren't always totally aligned with their overlord's, and there have been plenty of times in the past where US Military leadership has seemed openly aggravated with Ukrainian strategies. As the situation grows more desperate, Ukraine will become more and more willing to resort to questionable/Machiavellian plays to somehow turn the tides, even if it actively harms US interests. At the end of the day, it's the Ukrainian officers and politicians who will end up at best unemployed and at worst on trial if Russia wins, not any members of the Biden administration.

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 56 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

Stumbled across a piece of research being performed by the London School of Economics for the benefit of the banking sector

https://lsecentralbanking.medium.com/understanding-the-escalating-frequency-and-duration-of-strikes-across-the-uk-5c9d42be6b2f

They're looking into the rise in strikes in the UK, and the research aims to answer the question of what causes it so that they can then consider how to manage it I presume.

The Analysis and Conclusion are well worth a read. Too long for me to post them both here though. The Conclusion is:

Conclusion

In conclusion, the recent surge in strikes within the UK economy, spanning various sectors such as healthcare, education, and rail, can be analysed using the Ashenfelter and Johnson model. The model provides valuable insights into the dynamics between unions and firms, shedding light on the factors influencing the frequency and duration of strikes.

Overall, in the current economic climate, factors such as the cost of living crisis, decoupling of wages from productivity, and government spending cuts have led to a significant decline in real wages for public sector workers and resulted in a dramatic increase in Y0. Coupled with a substantial budget deficit and austerity, the government’s ideal wage increase (Yt) has decreased and remained low. This increasing gap between the two wages has contributed to the increasing length and frequency of strikes.

Ideally I think unions and organisers should be getting educated on this kind of research, in particular models like this Ashenfelter shit. Not because I think it's correct but because it is what their opponents are using, if they are using them as models then they are building strategy around them as being correctly capable of guessing union behaviour/outcomes. Understanding them is a means of being unpredictable and being able to predict employer behaviour will allow strategies to be undertaken that abuse it.

Organisers can be more agile than employers.

[–] DivineChaos100@hexbear.net 56 points 8 months ago (8 children)

So apparently the moscow attackers are Tajiks.

Some sources say two of them were caught on the road towards Ukraine. There's a pretty gnarly photo out there with one of the alleged attackers with his left eyelid cut off/eye gouged.

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[–] WashedAnus@hexbear.net 55 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (5 children)

Fortune - Intel wins $19.5 billion in CHIPS Act funding as ‘historic’ semiconductor spending spree heats up

If Intel meets performance targets in the deal, it’ll be eligible for $8.5 billion in federal grants, an additional $11 billion in CHIPS Act loans and a 25% Treasury tax credit. A senior administration official said that the Intel grant was expected to be the largest single grant administered through the CHIPS Act, and once the Commerce Department and Intel agree on final terms, the government expects to start delivering funds by the end of the year.

So, three years after Congress passed the CHIPS act, they're finally thinking about possibly doing the first major disbursement by the end of the year.

Oh boy, America is really showing China what they can do when they eventually get off their asses because the graft checks finally cleared the bank.

This is the real reason Brandon went to Arizona, nothing to actually do with the primaries.

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[–] edge@hexbear.net 55 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Libs on Twitter are celebrating the 25th anniversary of NATO bombing Yugoslavia.

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[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 55 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Inger Støjberg, convicted criminal, darling for Denmark's far right and leader of one of the American puppet state's fascist parties, has proposed that applicants for Danish citizenship has to sign a loyalty oath to the illegal zionist entity. The succdem minister of integration (ie. racism) has chosen not to run with the ball though, declining to give interviews. Denmark's foreign minister is talking about the need for a ceasefire, although he still refuses to connect the dot between the actions of the zionist ocvupiers and the man-made famine in Gaza.

Even my lead-poisoned boomer dad who will believe any conspiracy theory about Muslims and the woke has lost his taste for the illegal zionist entity and their atrocities.

Zionism is slowly becoming a weird fringe position in the west and being an outspoken zionist is becoming an embarrassment.

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[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 54 points 8 months ago

tfw your Western handlers can no longer ship you weapons:
https://twitter.com/marcus_herve/status/1769371930606325983

Now, it looks like the terrorists are having a hard time getting their usual supplies of weapons. After all, how can their sponsors supply them when the AES is now controlling the land and airspace?

[–] Parsani@hexbear.net 54 points 8 months ago

In honor of the mega's image this week, I dug through my account to find this edit:

[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 54 points 8 months ago (4 children)
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[–] Zodiark@hexbear.net 54 points 8 months ago (5 children)
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[–] emizeko@hexbear.net 54 points 8 months ago

has Ukraine issued a commemorative postage stamp for the Crocus City Hall attack yet?

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 53 points 8 months ago (5 children)

It seems that the US has chosen some politicians to elect Haiti's interim prime minister, while right-wing paramilitaries, gangs and left-wing groups continue to clash with the police and advance on the capital.

These right-wing gangs and paramilitaries are the remnants of the old Haitian army and the death squads of right-wing dictator François Duvalier and his son. When Haiti's first democratically elected president was elected in 1991, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, a Catholic socdem, he tried to destroy these groups after being temporarily removed in a coup by the Haitian elite.

Then, some of Aristide's supporters created a left-wing paramilitary group called Chimères to help the government. These groups ended up engaging in a low-intensity guerrilla war against the US, France, the UN and pro-coup groups in the 2000s, after they illegally removed Aristide from power.

Now, these groups are fighting for control of the country after the US and French puppets failed to do anything but line their pockets with public money and foreign aid.

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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 53 points 8 months ago (9 children)

US House Speaker ‘may’ invite Israeli PM to address Congress | Al Jazeera

US House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson says he’s considering inviting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress.

“It’s one of the things that we have in mind, and we may try to arrange for that,” Johnson told reporters. He said it’s “very important” for the United States to show solidarity and support for Israel “right now in their time of great struggle”.

Johnson said he held a “lengthy conversation this morning” with Netanyahu and reiterated House Republicans’ “strong support for Israel”.

Last week by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for new elections in Israel and criticised Netanyahu’s leadership. Johnson said, “We think it is not only foolhardy, it’s dangerous for him to be trying to suggest how Israel should run its domestic affairs in the midst of their conflict.”

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[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 53 points 8 months ago

Compilation of the IOF getting owned:
https://twitter.com/revolutionaryem/status/1770893496662032866

It's old footage, but it's cool to see them in one compilation.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 53 points 8 months ago (8 children)

Independent US presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr has said he does not support a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. | The Guardian

Speaking to Reuters, he told it Israel was a "moral nation" that was justly responding to Hamas provocations with its attacks on Gaza. Asked if he supported a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, Kennedy told Reuters: "I don't even know what that means right now." Kennedy said that each previous ceasefire "has been used by Hamas to rearm, to rebuild and then launch another surprise attack. So what would be different this time?" he said.

Recent polling has suggested Kennedy is backed by 15% of registered voters in the US, nowhere near enough to attain the presidency, but in a position where he could take votes from incumbent Joe Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. Earlier this week Trump said that Jewish people who voted for the Democratic party "hated Israel" and "hated their religion".

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[–] bazingabrain@hexbear.net 53 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (7 children)

The scotland Hate Crime bill is simply magical. It purports that anything published online and read in Scotland, is considered posted from Scotland. This means you could commit a crime in Scotland without ever leaving your home or having set a foot in the country. Furthermore, every single thing published before the bill passed is now retroactively subjected to the new law, meaning ten year old content read in Scotland and reported as a Hate Crime will then be eligible for prosecution.

This is possibly the most fantastical piece of legislation ive ever read, I burst out laughing numerous times, sent it to friends studying law and several replied with variants of "what the fuck." Given the tenuous nature of the bill and how fucking vague it is, theres zero doubt this will be weaponized to persecute palestine activists and leftists of all stripes.

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[–] VILenin@hexbear.net 53 points 8 months ago

Getting reports now that the attack was committed by three guys in a boat

[–] Outdoor_Catgirl@hexbear.net 53 points 8 months ago (10 children)

What's going on with ukraine rn? Something about huge missile attack?

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[–] kleeon@hexbear.net 52 points 8 months ago (6 children)
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