this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2025
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This. The only reason I even entertain their opinion is because it's coming from someone who speaks mandarin coming on an ultra-fringe far-left website where people tend to be china boosters (myself included) and giving a diverging opinion. If their take came from any mainstream publication (and sometimes their arguments ring close to michael pettis) I'd dismiss it outright.
Ridiculous. Pettis thinks that China is gaming the trade imbalance and caused de-industrialization in America. He is right about the balance of payments stuff but please don’t even try to equate my arguments with his. If you actually understood what I have written, they could not have been more different.
I am literally one of the few people on this site that says China is already strong enough to take on the US economically and financially, unlike others that still find excuses like “but China is still weak…. China needs more primitive accumulation of capital from Western countries first….”
For reference, China already has 31% of the global manufacturing capacity, compared to 18% in the US, and 5% for Germany and Japan each. If this is still not enough productive capacity, then our entire socialist project is doomed lol. How else are other Global South countries ever going to accumulate enough productive capacity? Surely one day, one day it will happen lol.
These are the same “leftists” that are regurgitating the same Western imperialist lines that “poor Global South countries have to export cheap goods to the West in order to pull themselves up by the bootstraps to become high income countries”. Be careful whose propaganda you are falling for.
Any other country, like Russia, that even tries to open themselves up to the West would have been instantly labeled as a “comprador state” on this site. I am literally providing an explanation - which may not be perfectly correct, but at least reasonable enough backed by evidence - on why China behaves the way it does.
It is. But i think the actual inflection point is being able to take on and defeat the US (and whatever other regional us ally) military head on with a high degree of certainty. Because with the current behavior of the US a more aggresive china leveraging its economic and industrial and financial superiority will very likely lead to a military confrontation. So chinese superiority must also be concrete in military capabilities as well. At least as far as tech and force generation and supperiority in SEA and up to Guam. Its likely that the US cant be kicked out of asia and Chinas backyard, and the reality of power in the erea cant permanently be changed to Chinas favor to a significant degree unless the US embarrassiny loses the war they or taiwn will start.
That inflection point based on current trends most likely will happen within the next 7-8 years. I personaly wait for a china that has completed its current energy and military revolution and then judge its assertiveness or lack ther off regarding the US empire.
Fair enough, i just read the "chinese people aren't consuming enough" point you make sometimes and think oh it's like what that failed nightclub owner turned economist who I have no reason to believe keeps saying