this post was submitted on 09 Jun 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from June 9th to June 15th, 2025 - Iran-Israel War Begins
(hexbear.net)
Image is Israeli interceptors trying and failing to intercept missiles over their cities.
Israel just carried out a widespread bombing of Iran, which has killed a number of senior officials inside Iran (though it seems the leadership is more-or-less intact) as well as a number of civilians. Important facilities have been targeted, but the amount of damage is unknown so far (note that many important Iranian facilities are deep underground, making them both hard to damage but also hard to determine if they are damaged from just satellite imagery, so reports of damage will be he-said-she-said).
It appears the attack took Iran by surprise, given that a residential block was targeted that contained some senior officials - if one saw an attack coming, one would imagine they'd be in bunkers. Nonetheless, like the rest of the Resistance Axis, I suspect that Iran has adapted their military structures to be resistant to decapitation strikes by ensuring that replacement figures are ready to take the place of killed officials.
Iran has delivered a massive missile barrage in response to Israeli aggression, even though Israel is continuing to bomb Iran. Iran is now aware of the location of many important Israeli sites, including secret nuclear sites, due to their recent intelligence haul, giving them a distinct edge.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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In general, I would be skeptical of any sort of "actually we wanted you to attack us and kill several of our top ranking commanders and at least severely damage some of our missile sites" explanations, both here and in other conflicts. Is it possible? Absolutely, but it's also an explanation that removes the ability for one side to have actually failed. It also requires a high level of planning and infiltration of the IOF and Israeli government, plus the coverup afterwards so the Iranian public doesn't find out that the government actually just let them bomb a bunch of apartment buildings.
Bagheri's replacement, Abdolrahim Mousavi, was the guy who was in charge of suppressing the protests a few years ago (quite violently by many accounts). I don't have much reason to suspect that he wants a different path from the IRGC at the moment. If anything, his appointment makes me hopeful that Iran is going to finally get away from the inefficient strategy of running two military organizations in parallel.
Uh aktually, Putin was using his 10d judoka skills by letting Prigo lead that mutiny.
You know what's funny? People rightly compared Prigo to Kornilov. Well there is a theory that Kerensky organized or fabricated the extent of the Kornilov affair in order to cement his own power. I don't really buy that, but interesting that the same theory arose in both cases.
Good addition
Something else Marmite could probably confirm is if the Iranians are still mainly using Russian anti-aircraft systems. I know AW says he's a weeb in his bio, but he's also a russophile, and would have a bit of an emotional investment in coming up with an explanation for why Russian systems didn't actually fail.
Iran's best aa is the bavar, Wich is an indigenous s400 equivalent, but they don't have many of those.
The Russian S-300PMU-2 was the heart of the integrated air defence network in Iran, and without those (fire control radars were likely destroyed in previous attacks), capability goes down significantly. S-300s could also control other Soviet/Russian systems and integrate data between them, so that's a loss there.
Iran has Bavar-373, a domestically produced equivalent to the S-300P series, and Bavar-373-II, a domestic equivalent to the S-300V series. But it's questionable how many are actually operational, and their degree of integration with other systems.
Aside from that, they have the American HAWK systems which they've upgraded, the domestically produced Khordad and Raad series of mobile SAM systems (which are currently priority targets for Israel). Then there's the Soviet era S-200 as the backbone of long range air defence, but the chances of hitting fighter jets with that are low. Then there's the modern mobile point defence systems such as the Soviet/Russian Tor and Pantsir, of which Tor is far superior. Then there's all the old Soviet era systems Iran has littered through the country, SA-2, SA-3, SA-6, etc. Though these systems are so old I'd doubt their effectiveness. Then there's the frankenSAM systems that involve firing air to air missiles like the R-73 from the ground. This is just missile defence, Iran has a ton of anti aircraft guns, but those won't be a threat to manned aircraft, they'll aim to shoot drones and cruise missiles.
Right now the biggest threat to the Israeli Air Force are those domestically produced mobile Khordad and Raad systems, they are the most modern systems Iran has currently operating, and have proven capable of taking out modern aircraft and drones. They've got modern AESA and PESA fire control radars, decent range, seperate surveillance radars, ground based infrared search and track like the Sephyr-14, etc.
Armchair Warlord is not great on air defence, he's confused HAWK, S-300 and NASAMS systems with Patriot systems in Ukraine, leading to absurd claims such as "Russia has destroyed 5-6 Patriot batteries in Ukraine", and blocking anyone who calls him out on this.
I agree with this. The analysis is mostly solid, especially in its discussion of the raw military facts, but the speculative part about political intentionality is dubious at best. Yes it's an interesting thesis that we should not entirely discount, but we definitely need more evidence before we can start to support this theory over the simpler alternative explanation, which is that casualties are inevitable in a war.
As usual, in lieu of further evidence, Occam's Razor is the safest bet. Most importantly: don't jump to unsupported conclusions.