this post was submitted on 10 Dec 2023
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[–] AlwaysNowNeverNotMe@kbin.social 46 points 11 months ago (4 children)

The lotto is an additional tax for people who don't understand math

[–] themeatbridge@lemmy.world 51 points 11 months ago (6 children)

A lot of people understand how unfair the math is, and still buy the tickets because "you never know."

Source: I buy tickets sometimes because you never know...

[–] verysoft@kbin.social 16 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (6 children)

If you can afford it, then it's no harm really. I've made a profit from the lottery myself, albeit a minor one. Depending on the lottery, it's not the worst thing you can give pocket change away to for a bit of fun. So I never understood this "you'll never win" mentality/gatekeeping hobbies, people know the chances, but it's fun either way.

[–] themeatbridge@lemmy.world 16 points 11 months ago

I think the big problem is that people who are addicted to gambling are being suckered several times a week. It's not really gambling, it's buying a daydream. If a casino gave you similar odds in one of their slots, it would likely be illegal based on the odds and the payout. So people who think of it like gambling are getting the worst of it. The expected value never approaches anything close to fair, even at rhe highest jackpots.

[–] brbposting@sh.itjust.works 7 points 11 months ago

people know the chances

This article agrees. Huge caveat:

…Osmond…obtained a database from the Connecticut Lottery containing 21 years' worth of winners. What did he find?

They are largely poor, largely minorities, and often addicts.

The lottery preys on these people.

Vox, “4 ways the lottery preys on the poor”, 2016

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[–] Jonny@kbin.social 6 points 11 months ago

I always feel it's more of a tax on hope. I know a few folks who play and the understand the odds very well... but what if!

'What if' can be very appealing for only £2, even if it is incredibly, incredibly, (repeat incredibly a thousand more times) unlikely.

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[–] SeeMinusMinus@lemmy.world 41 points 11 months ago (1 children)
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[–] nixcamic@lemmy.world 34 points 11 months ago

It's a quirk in statistics that buying a lottery ticket doesn't really statistically improve your chances of winning over not buying a ticket.

But like also your odds of winning with a ticket are infinitely higher than without.

[–] WereCat@lemmy.world 20 points 11 months ago (4 children)

I'll let you on a secret to increase your odds.

Since the chance to guess the correct numbers is so low that it's almost guaranteed you made a bad guess... Just change the guess to increase your odds.

[–] kameecoding@lemmy.world 13 points 11 months ago (3 children)

I think that the fact that people don't believe you when you tell them that 1 2 3 4 5 6 has the exact same chance of winning than any other combination shows how bad we are with numbers , 1 2 3 4 5 6 is seen as something with very low odds of happening that is thought about as something that will never happen, but say 4 8 15 16 23 42 is seen as something that could happen anytime.

[–] AnagrammadiCodeina@feddit.it 9 points 11 months ago

But please don't move the island.

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[–] Honytawk@lemmy.zip 19 points 11 months ago (1 children)

You win every time you do not play the lottery.

You have more chance to play the lottery your whole life and never win a significant amount, than it is to win a significant amount once.

Since the lottery is a business, big part of all the ticket sales is used to run the business (and to generate profit). Only the rest is used to pay the winnings.

[–] Nath@aussie.zone 16 points 11 months ago (1 children)

The lottery is run by the state government where I am, and all profits are put back into the community as grants.

Your odds of winning are just as awful, but at least you know your money isn't just making some rich people richer.

[–] qaz@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)
[–] lugal@sopuli.xyz 4 points 11 months ago

This seems to be more widespread than I thought! I assumed at least one of you were German. In Germany, Austria and Switzerland, there is a monopoly on lottery.

[–] Baphomet_The_Blasphemer@lemmy.world 12 points 11 months ago (1 children)

If the jackpot is up in the ridiculous set for life amounts, I'll drop ten bucks on a few tickets here or there. My thoughts doing so is this: if I lose ten bucks, then nothing really changes in my life, but if I'm truly lucky and hit that one in a quadrillion chance of actually winning the jackpot, then everything changes. I don't ever expect to win, but I won't miss the minimal amount of money I'm throwing in for my chance to. So why not bet on the long shot every now and again as long as losing doesn't hurt me financially?

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[–] Muninn@lemmy.dbzer0.com 11 points 11 months ago (2 children)

The way I see it, is that by never trying, I have statistically about the same chances of winning as someone playing.

[–] agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works 6 points 11 months ago (5 children)

Except their chances are infinitely higher than yours. It's miniscule, but miniscule and finite is infinitely bigger than zero. Math gets funky around the edge cases

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[–] son_named_bort@lemmy.world 10 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

You miss 100% of the shots you take.

[–] Mr_Dr_Oink@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

Isn't it "you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

?

Edit. I think i completely missed your joke. It's about the extremely low chance that you will win the lottery and you are using wayne Gretzkys famous quote to make the joke.

Sorry, im an idiot and i ruin jokes by explaining them so someone can validate me and say "yes, well done, you got the joke...."

Well done! You got the joke. :)

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[–] stebo02@sopuli.xyz 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

and 99.9999% of the shots you do take

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[–] ElBarto@sh.itjust.works 10 points 11 months ago

I just ask them how much they spend on lotto every week, then times that by 52 and then ask roughly what they've won over the year, take that from the first number and show them how much money they've wasted. Sometimes it goes well, most times it doesn't, but they don't bother me about the lotto anymore.

[–] ExLisper@linux.community 9 points 11 months ago (1 children)

If someone thinks about playing lottery just tell them to bet on '1 2 3 4 5 6' (or whatever the number of numbers in your lottery). Once you realize this combination is as probable as any other the chances of winning seem a lot smaller.

[–] Cosmicomical@kbin.social 10 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (5 children)

That is true, but as a side note i discourage you from betting on that sequence as a lot of people that studied probability end up betting on that same sequence out of spite and if it actually comes out the winnings will be much lower than expected.

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[–] niktemadur@lemmy.world 9 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (3 children)

I'd rather see what Joshua the AI from "War Games" (the movie) has to say about all this...

A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

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[–] metaStatic@kbin.social 9 points 11 months ago (2 children)

been meaning to do the math on this for a long time but never remember about it.

Turns out I saved $43,800 by not playing the local lottery every week since my first job.

potentially times that by seven because there seems to be a different lottery for every day of the week.

I'd like to check if my smartarse sequential number pick ever won in that time but finding the historical numbers is a bit more work than I could be bothered with right now.

[–] Delphia@lemmy.world 11 points 11 months ago (3 children)

Depending on how your local lottery system works you probably would have had some minor wins over the years.

I have a $5 ticket every week. My logic is that "I'm renting hope" every week theres a minuscule chance that it could be my last week at work ever. I see a house that I'll never be able to afford and I think "Sure, if I win this week. Lol" as opposed to getting all shitty about wealth inequality.

[–] mayonaise_met@feddit.nl 5 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Ah, so not only false hope but also crushing class consciousness.

[–] Delphia@lemmy.world 6 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Its not false hope, I'm aware that its stupidly unlikely but its not impossible. I dont think Ill ever win the jackpot but the idea that it could happen is worth $5 a week.

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[–] Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago

Put that $5 in an index fund and pretend you won $10,000 in 20 years.

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[–] agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I buy a lotto ticket when the Powerball gets ridiculous. Probably won't win, but I definitely won't if I don't get a ticket. A few bucks every year is worth that improvement from zero to non-zero.

[–] Honytawk@lemmy.zip 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

You and many people, lowering your chances even more.

You are just donating money at that point.

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[–] GrammatonCleric@lemmy.world 8 points 11 months ago

I can never get STDs if I stay a virgin forever.

Checkmate, antibiotics manufacturers.

[–] WaxedWookie@lemmy.world 8 points 11 months ago

I bet you can't win the lottery if you do play - care to bet on it?

[–] Johanno@feddit.de 8 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I once calculated the chance of winning the pot if you pay 10 million in tickets. It was about 50%

[–] kameecoding@lemmy.world 13 points 11 months ago

we did it in school it's basic math from how many numbers how many do you need to guess correctly, they can arbitrarily set those numbers to always be more than the population.

IIRC in my country where the population is around 5 million the odds of winning the lottery was about 1 in 6,5 million and in the neighboring country with 10 million people it was around 1 in 13 million

[–] ILikeBoobies@lemmy.ca 6 points 11 months ago

Statistically you can’t win by playing either

[–] rmuk@feddit.uk 6 points 11 months ago

If you're in the UK and you - or anyone you know - plays the lottery, look into Premium Bonds instead. You get the same excitement during the draw and the worst case scenario is you get your money back.

Yes, I know there are better investments, but Premium Bonds have some of the fun of the lottery without just pissing your cash away.

[–] NewPerspective@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago

"You can't win the lotto and you are playing."

[–] runeko@programming.dev 5 points 11 months ago (1 children)

You are very slightly less likely to win the lotto if you don't buy a ticket.

[–] Kyle_The_G@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago (3 children)

My lottery is open 9:30-4 mon-fri and its called the NYSE.

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[–] Enzy@lemm.ee 4 points 11 months ago

laughs in poor

[–] therealjcdenton@lemmy.zip 4 points 11 months ago

Sounds like someone who doesn't play

[–] Makeshift@sh.itjust.works 3 points 11 months ago

I guess my crappy raffle luck as a kid paid off. Learned young that putting hope in a gamble isn’t worth it.

Nowadays I have a fun little mantra to tell people in my circle: If I’m willing to make a bet, you might not want to take it. I’m not the gambling type. I probably know something.

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